Ray of Hope - 119th Draw

[abhishek_89]

The agony is we can't predict the next draw also. we don't know the number of applicants between 450 and 470

I can help you out a bit with my analysis if it helps.

DRAW PREDICTION:

Draw 119 - June 12 - 3350 ITAs - CRS 463
Variance is +/- 2.

 

[abhishek_89]

People in 451- 600 range
as of May 10 - 1668
as of May 24 - 4624

In 14 days 2956 people got in 451-600 range ? how is that possible

That's the normal intake for that score range. The only difference which happened this time was the draw happened after 4 weeks (double the time than a normal draw), so cut off went up.

 

[donsyete]

Yes, 470 is brutal but many are now aware of how easy it is to immigrate to Canada so no surprise really that the pool is getting flooded by huge numbers every day..

Nearly 50% of the pool is filled with Indians who have Master's degree and maxed IELTS. Sadly, future seems to be getting more and more tough for those in 430s and 440s

Totally agree with this. People should also consider PNP nomination plus the timing for most international students in Canada graduating plus these students also have Canadian work experience to go with it if I am not mistaken. So May draw would include this. This is not impossible. I think we were just used to the scenario that after 3500 invites or 3350 invites, it normal goes down. Let us just hope in the coming weeks there will be more draws and it keeps coming down and not much additional candidates with 450+ entering the pool.

Like one of our colleague mentioned here, let us not assume but reconsider many things. All we can do is pray. Anything is possible.

 

[prsingh]

I guess I should book another IELTS now. But I am scared if I get less marks than now... i am 7.5 in writing which I feel is little difficult to maintain...

 

[javeds]

I am a 2018 ITA and visited ROH due to curiosity of today's brutal draw. I spent so many days of 2018 here.

We thought 2018 was brutal compared to 2017 when people with 413 got ITA.
Now 2019 is destroying everything. God be with you guys. Let me know if I can offer any help.

 

[abhishek_89]

I too have a masters, that doesn't seem the case.

Master's + IELTS CLB 9/CLB 10 + 3 years work experience + Age below 30 is the golden combination.

 

[BryanL]

I guess I should book another IELTS now. But I am scared if I get less marks than now... i am 7.5 in writing which I feel is little difficult to maintain...

are you expecting you will get 9999 in the future?

 

[prsingh]

are you expecting you will get 9999 in the future?

No, but atleast I can increase in reading from 7 to 8 and in listening from 8 to 8.5

 

[journey21]

You guys should interfere in the elections on behalf of Trudeau, otherwise, Scheer is going to put an end to the Express Entry party.

No he is not.

 

[BryanL]

I am a 2018 ITA and visited ROH due to curiosity of today's brutal draw. I spent so many days of 2018 here.

We thought 2018 was brutal compared to 2017 when people with 413 got ITA.
Now 2019 is destroying everything. God be with you guys. Let me know if I can offer any help.

Do you think we can account for NOI from CIC under human capital program in this year?

 

[abhishek_89]

Yes you are right, I just checked. I have one year of experience and 3+ years of experience bumps it up to 472.

That means people who have Masters Degree with 3+ years experience are flocking in by huge numbers. Still hard to believe. There is something dodgy happening!

Nothing dodgy here - just like you and me others are trying to move mostly from third world countries to developed nations like Canada before the options run out!
Consultancies have been able to market Canada PR exceptionally well especially after 2017 showing the record low cut off draws that happened that year.

 

[donsyete]

Master's + IELTS CLB 9/CLB 10 + 3 years work experience + Age below 30 is the golden combination.

Yes, masters at a very young age plus good IELTS score would surely push the CRS to 470+. My friend who is single, 27 yrs old with MBA had 470+ points. With more people realizing the great opportunity in Canada and the constant promotion of Canada to bring in millions of immigrants in the next 2-3yrs, it has helped bring in more younger applicants in the pool.

 

[abhishek_89]

With 470 point, even 3500-3900 ITA doesn't recover the damage ~

CIC attitude has changed this year....they are not that "welcoming" compare to last 2 years

ITAs issued From Jan 2018 - May 2018: 32,200
ITAs issued From Jan 2019 - May 2019: 35,100

CIC has issued more ITAs than last year (comparing the ITAs issued from Jan - May). It is just that the demand has increased significantly than the supply.

 

[abhishek_89]

Do you know the population of Indians with masters degree, 3 yrs work exp and fluency in english? Probably in the millions. I'm surprised the crs was so low for so long.

It is just that those many are not applying yet or they don't want to migrate.

 

[javeds]

ITAs issued From Jan 2018 - May 2018: 32,200
ITAs issued From Jan 2019 - May 2019: 35,100

CIC has issued more ITAs than last year (comparing the ITAs issued from Jan - May). It is just that the demand has increased significantly than the supply.

Last year they started slow and increased draw size rapidly. This year they are more consistent in draw size.