Ray of Hope - 114th Draw

[indpnv]

I NEED HELP. I stayed in USA for 3 years. so I have to do PCC from USA. where to do that and how much time it takes get it done.

You will need to use this: https://www.edo.cjis.gov/

If you are applying from the US, send the fingerprints taken from the local PD along with the application to the FBI.
It takes about a week to get the PCC.

 

[alibutt2013]

Can any senior please help me out with this issue.

I got ITA in draw 113 and after going through the application I realized that I put non-skilled work experience in the work history and I am not claiming any points for it. Is it okay for me to move it from work history to personal history so I don't have to provide proof for it?

 

[JNS1214]

You will need to use this: https://www.edo.cjis.gov/

If you are applying from the US, send the fingerprints taken from the local PD along with the application to the FBI.
It takes about a week to get the PCC.

Thanks. I am in India. where to do.

 

[SeniorStakes]

Can any senior please help me out with this issue.

I got ITA in draw 113 and after going through the application I realized that I put non-skilled work experience in the work history and I am not claiming any points for it. Is it okay for me to move it from work history to personal history so I don't have to provide proof for it?

Yes

 

[SeniorStakes]

Thanks. I am in India. where to do.

If in Mumbai, go to CID in South Mumbai who will attest. Otherwise, you can send without attestation also but take your finger prints carefully.

 

[Boluwaduro]

It would be better to write IELTS one more time and take the score to 448 or 451 or 454 (which is the best case). All the best!

CRS cut-off can easily touch 445 by May / June. In your case, there is a trade-off between money and patience. All the best!!

Okay. Thank you

 

[alibutt2013]

Yes

Would I have to provide them with an LOE?

 

[abhishek_89]

@abhishek_89 : what's your prediction for the next draw?

Cut off would be in the range of 449-451 in the next draw if it happens on Apr 3rd with 3350 ITAs.

 

[pessacanada]

Would I have to provide them with an LOE?

Yes explain that matter in your LoE.

 

[biquanbi96]

Cut off would be in the range of 449-451 in the next draw if it happens on Apr 3rd with 3350 ITAs.

That's good to hear. I missed out on 3 previous draws at 451 ( had thought at one point 451 would guarantee an ITA on the next draw after submission). Oh boy was I wrong Haha. Thanks for the prediction.

 

[skg1988]

As I wrote earlier several times, if we do simple math, current speed of 3350 ITAs every two weeks is enough to meet the target.

Last year, they did 3900s later in the year in order to offset the shortfall created through 2750s and 3000s done earlier in the year.

As I wrote earlier several times, if we do simple math, current speed of 3350 ITAs every two weeks is enough to meet the target.

Last year, they did 3900s later in the year in order to offset the shortfall created through 2750s and 3000s done earlier in the year.

I don't agree with your view that the number of ITAs will not increase in the coming draws. If you analyze a bit more carefully, I think, you will find that in 2018 target was 74900 which could have been achieved with 3000*25 =75000. There was no shortfall with 3000 ITAs until they did not include declined ITAs.
The deadline to submit the application was 90 days which means they could only know the decline rate on 10 April as the first draw was on 10th Jan. Consequently, they increased the number of ITAs to 3500 in 11th April draw.
As the rule to submit the application has been changed from 90 days to 60 days, there, in an ideal case, would have been an increase in ITAs starting from 10th March.
One possible explanation of why the number of ITAs did not increase in 20th March draw----
They had already issued 17850 ITAs in 5 draws on an average of 3570/draw. Or 21200 ITAs in 6 draws, March 20 inclusive, on an average of 3533/draw.
Thus, I hope, there should be an increase in the number of ITAs in the next draw or definitely after 1-2 draws unless there is a drastic change in the rate of ITAs declined compared to previous years.

Cheers,
Suraj

 

[vensak]

I don't agree with your view that the number of ITAs will not increase in the coming draws. If you analyze a bit more carefully, I think, you will find that in 2018 target was 74900 which could have been achieved with 3000*25 =75000. There was no shortfall with 3000 ITAs until they did not include declined ITAs.
The deadline to submit the application was 90 days which means they could only know the decline rate on 10 April as the first draw was on 10th Jan. Consequently, they increased the number of ITAs to 3500 in 11th April draw.
As the rule to submit the application has been changed from 90 days to 60 days, there, in an ideal case, would have been an increase in ITAs starting from 10th March.
One possible explanation of why the number of ITAs did not increase in 20th March draw----
They had already issued 17850 ITAs in 5 draws on an average of 3570/draw. Or 21200 ITAs in 6 draws, March 20 inclusive, on an average of 3533/draw.
Thus, I hope, there should be an increase in the number of ITAs in the next draw or definitely after 1-2 draws unless there is a drastic change in the rate of ITAs declined compared to previous years.

Cheers,
Suraj

there are certain things that needs to be corrected.
Immigration has rather exact data of all this:
1. Total waste rate in % from all issued ITA (all ITA that will not make it to an approved application and successful landing), is not something that does change because the limits for year are different. However this tends to go down if system is stable (no sudden changes in documents or other requirements) and if system is long enough.
In case of EE, after this long time, whole system is known and lot of immigration consultant have learned to work with it well. Additionally there is plenty info on different website. So as a result this waste rate should have gone down. Of that is not good news for amount of needed ITA.
So this in a long run has unfortunately slightly negative effect. (as less people mess up their applications, so there will be less "spare ITAs" needed).

2. Portion of applicants that were actually using longer application period (application sent within last 30 days). If they want to they can have day to day analysis, or a better looking one for each 7 or 10 days. What they have found out is, that most likely only very small amount of applicants were dragging for the last moment, so more generous application time is not really big advantage. However it will give them a bit better accurancy especially when reaching end of the year when remaining target for that period might be small.
Overall, the change from 90 days to 60 should not have much of negative impact. if anything it will have slightly positive impact in the long run, as those prepared can take spots of those that do not have required documents fast (and yes PCC has an exception, as long as you submit the proof that you have asked for it but you are still waiting for it). And later on effect will be neutral (people will learn to be faster).

By the way the whole learning curve of the system itself is the direct root cause why there are so many EE profiles and why so many people get higher CRS.

 

[pursuit]

I don't know what was the reason cic did draw on Jan30, I think because of this draw the score has gone up otherwise score would have been between 445 - 452.

 

[skg1988]

there are certain things that needs to be corrected.
Immigration has rather exact data of all this:
1. Total waste rate in % from all issued ITA (all ITA that will not make it to an approved application and successful landing), is not something that does change because the limits for year are different. However this tends to go down if system is stable (no sudden changes in documents or other requirements) and if system is long enough.
In case of EE, after this long time, whole system is known and lot of immigration consultant have learned to work with it well. Additionally there is plenty info on different website. So as a result this waste rate should have gone down. Of that is not good news for amount of needed ITA.
So this in a long run has unfortunately slightly negative effect. (as less people mess up their applications, so there will be less "spare ITAs" needed).

2. Portion of applicants that were actually using longer application period (application sent within last 30 days). If they want to they can have day to day analysis, or a better looking one for each 7 or 10 days. What they have found out is, that most likely only very small amount of applicants were dragging for the last moment, so more generous application time is not really big advantage. However it will give them a bit better accurancy especially when reaching end of the year when remaining target for that period might be small.
Overall, the change from 90 days to 60 should not have much of negative impact. if anything it will have slightly positive impact in the long run, as those prepared can take spots of those that do not have required documents fast (and yes PCC has an exception, as long as you submit the proof that you have asked for it but you are still waiting for it). And later on effect will be neutral (people will learn to be faster).

By the way the whole learning curve of the system itself is the direct root cause why there are so many EE profiles and why so many people get higher CRS.

I agree and understand that every system becomes stable, in terms of accuracy, after a certain period of time. However, it is unlikely that it becomes stable abruptly, what I mean is that there should be a trend. For example, in 2017, 120.5% ITAs were issued and in 2018, they were119.9 %. It is, therefore, less likely to expect only 4-5 % extra ITAs in 2019.

What I was trying to say is that I have seen people, in the same thread, even with more than 447 points are getting panicked and thinking of another IELTS not because they are losing points soon but they are afraid whether they will get an ITA.

CIC knows the exact position of all the candidates and, even though, they will not let us know our exact rank in the pool. This is all about business and, I think, the key factor which is controlling the borderline score, which makes difference, is language test and candidates always think that they can further increase their score, which is a trap.

These language testing organizations will always be against to display the exact rank of a candidate. Furthermore, many candidates apply through immigration agents who again make money through fabricating things in a complicated manner.

Anyway, that is my opinion.

Cheers,
Suraj

 

[skg1988]

I don't know what was the reason cic did draw on Jan30, I think because of this draw the score has gone up otherwise score would have been between 445 - 452.

Might be, to steel the NOIs sent by OINP.