Ray of Hope - 81st Draw

[Histrionics]

Buddy I appreciate your efforts for the mankind's help .... But I just want to tell you that there is "no pattern or predictability" in CRS scores
Also, am not new here, I have been following this forum since 2016, but finally applied a few weeks ago.

After 2 weeks if one says, there will be a draw, then most likely it would be true, and if not, then again next Wednesday say there will be a draw, at-least then it will be true.

Tell me a few instances, when your predicted score was exactly the cut-off

Also, scores of existing candidates not only increase, they also tend to decrease, for example Samrose just mentioned that his points will drop after a few days.

Why exactly is this about his predictions?

I don't see it hurting any of us except make us feel hopeful for a while. I doubt anyone here is blind to the unpredictable nature of the CIC.

 

[Midnight Blessing]

If by any chance we fail to have a draw today, it is going to be a hugeee upset for all us, the dreamers. Yes, this is will be a big blow for many of us sitting below 440 range.

Firstly, this will mean that CIC might not be looking to change their stance on draw gap, even 3 week gap is possible in the coming months, and surely lower ITA's.

Secondly, let's not forget that there will be no IELTS results coming out from 30th December to 20th January, so no draw today will mean that we are clearly out of having any advantage in terms of getting our CRS score down during this tenure.

Thirdly, I have seen that the IELTS are scheduled for the upcoming months with even 3 exams every month, which will undoubtedly add more candidates in the higher end more regulary unlike the draws. So, the possibility of having a lower cut off in the next 2 months will be very minimum.

This is definitely not a good news for people like me who are sitting at mid 430's. I really hope my assumptions prove wrong as this really hurtss

 

[abhishek_89]

Buddy I appreciate your efforts for the mankind's help .... But I just want to tell you that there is "no pattern or predictability" in CRS scores
Also, am not new here, I have been following this forum since 2016, but finally applied a few weeks ago.

After 2 weeks if one says, there will be a draw, then most likely it would be true, and if not, then again next Wednesday say there will be a draw, at-least then it will be true.

Tell me a few instances, when your predicted score was exactly the cut-off

Also, scores of existing candidates not only increase, they also tend to decrease, for example Samrose just mentioned that his points will drop after a few days.

Predicting of draw dates is just guess work, don't mix that with predicting the CRS cut off.

You can go through my previous posts and see multiple instances where my predicted CRS score was exactly the cut off.

When I calculate average intake it is the net increase of folks to a particular CRS range.

 

[Histrionics]

So what will happen to all this negative comments if eventually a draw was published today?

You guys are hysterical.

Precisely!

 

[AlliBatista]

Fellows, no need to compete for which one is more miserable, CIC hates us all equally.

 

[arthurbr]

If by any chance we fail to have a draw today, it is going to be a hugeee upset for all us, the dreamers. Yes, this is will be a big blow for many of us sitting below 440 range.

Firstly, this will mean that CIC might not be looking to change their stance on draw gap, even 3 week gap is possible in the coming months, and surely lower ITA's.

Secondly, let's not forget that there will be no IELTS results coming out from 30th December to 20th January, so no draw today will mean that we are clearly out of having any advantage in terms of getting our CRS score down during this tenure.

Thirdly, I have seen that the IELTS are scheduled for the upcoming months with even 3 exams every month, which will undoubtedly add more candidates in the higher end more regulary unlike the draws. So, the possibility of having a lower cut off in the next 2 months will be very minimum.

This is definitely not a good news for people like me who are sitting at mid 430's. I really hope my assumptions prove wrong as this really hurtss

That's why I'm already working on my french skills to make it possible for me to score some points by taking TEF Canada. If I'm successful, that would take me to the 480's. However, it is a long term plan.

 

[indocanadianguy]

Hi bro.. Pls let this go.. Abhishek_89 does amazing work even if he doesnt need to... Also Many of us believe him and expect his logic to be true.. What's the harm to appreciate someone's efforts..

Let's all be together and achieve our goal...

He does efforts (i respect that even if its not accurate), but that doesn't entitle him to negate others comments, without any concrete logic.

Anyway you're right, lets keep him aside, and continue our "Ray of Hopes"

 

[indocanadianguy]

L

so are we all just going to pretend that a draw didnt happen today or what?

what are the predictions now for next draw?

Lets hope for back to back draws, like it happened in 2017

 

[maplenow]

Accurate ? Yeah why not
I can bet more than 95% of his predictions have been incorrect.. and without any logic (the world works on logic, not on gut feelings)

You can go back, and check when was the last time his prediction was to the point

I also thank him for his efforts (even if it just gives hope), but he cannot negate other's comments without any logic behind

It is kind of funny that you claim "more than 95% incorrect predictions" without any supporting evidence. As I have seen, he has made close predictions. Predictions are not supposed to be accurate every time. He would dish out the accurate scores if he was the one responsible to come up with cut-off score. I guess he is not.

 

[Histrionics]

He does efforts (i respect that even if its not accurate), but that doesn't entitle him to negate others comments, without any concrete logic.

Anyway you're right, lets keep him aside, and continue our "Ray of Hopes"

Disagreering with your opinion or anyone else's is not entitled negation.

If anything, you have been constantly insinuating that his predictions are incorrect and harping about logic without offering a shred of logic and numbers and support for your own argument.

All he's doing is openly stating how he arrives at his numbers. Just because it doesn't suit your opinion doesn't mean you are entitled to spread negativity about someone else's efforts or be entitled to patronize the rest of us who want to keep hope alive.

 

[Jadee1318]

Guys is there realistically gonna be a draw today? I cannot find any info on what time past draws have happened. I only know that it usually happens before I wake up (I live in BC) and it hasn't today. This draw would have been my last chance to get my ITA before my working holiday visa runs out and essentially my last chance to remain in Canada. I need to know today as I need to let me employer know if I can't work past next Thursday!

Any ideas?

 

[indocanadianguy]

Disagreering with your opinion or anyone else's is not entitled negation.

If anything, you have been constantly insinuating that his predictions are incorrect and harping about logic without offering a shred of logic and numbers and support for your own argument.

All he's doing is openly stating how he arrives at his numbers. Just because it doesn't suit your opinion doesn't mean you are entitled to spread negativity about someone else's efforts or be entitled to patronize the rest of us who want to keep hope alive.

I would appreciate if you quote some draws where his prediction was accurate

 

[indocanadianguy]

Disagreering with your opinion or anyone else's is not entitled negation.

If anything, you have been constantly insinuating that his predictions are incorrect and harping about logic without offering a shred of logic and numbers and support for your own argument.

All he's doing is openly stating how he arrives at his numbers. Just because it doesn't suit your opinion doesn't mean you are entitled to spread negativity about someone else's efforts or be entitled to patronize the rest of us who want to keep hope alive.

"Negating WITHOUT ANY LOGIC" is what I said.
Please read full sentence, before jumping to conclusions

 

[Histrionics]

I would appreciate if you quote some draws where his prediction was accurate

Already quoted in a previous response. Not spending more time engaging on this. Please spend time reading before you leap to a response.

 

[Samroze]

If by any chance we fail to have a draw today, it is going to be a hugeee upset for all us, the dreamers. Yes, this is will be a big blow for many of us sitting below 440 range.

Firstly, this will mean that CIC might not be looking to change their stance on draw gap, even 3 week gap is possible in the coming months, and surely lower ITA's.

Secondly, let's not forget that there will be no IELTS results coming out from 30th December to 20th January, so no draw today will mean that we are clearly out of having any advantage in terms of getting our CRS score down during this tenure.

Thirdly, I have seen that the IELTS are scheduled for the upcoming months with even 3 exams every month, which will undoubtedly add more candidates in the higher end more regulary unlike the draws. So, the possibility of having a lower cut off in the next 2 months will be very minimum.

This is definitely not a good news for people like me who are sitting at mid 430's. I really hope my assumptions prove wrong as this really hurtss

If not Jan 3 and Jan 10 or 17, there can be two back to back draws before Jan 20 i.e on Jan 10 and Jan 17....still hope alive