1. OINP nominations have picked up pace lately. 29/day between 8-Aug and 11-Sep vs. 16/day between 10-Jul and 8-Aug. With 988 nominations left as of 11-Sep, the target quota will get exhausted as of 15-Oct at the current pace of issuance. Anyhow, these folks go right to the top of the pool ...in the 601-1200 bucket.
2. Offsetting that increase is the 451-600 bucket, where the numbers have been in decline (2216 as on 22-June, 1180 as on 27-July, 570 as of 30-Aug). These would be mostly folks finishing their Bachelors or Masters in Canada and those completing an additional year of Canadian work ex. Since these have been declining for a few months, most of those new graduates must have already received the ITA and new additions will be fewer.
I think the increase in 601-1200 is offset by decrease in 441-600 bucket.
3. No IELTS results since the last draw means the addition to the 430-450 bucket should not be as many. In any case, this bucket has also been declining. From a peak of 2584 as of 6-Jul, it has fallen to 1140 as of 30-Aug. Given the most recent draw was 435, the bucket has further reduced.
This tells me that 430-450 will decline, while 451-1200 may be flat. So overall pool quality should fall since the last draw. If the ITAs issued stay the same, the CRS cutoff should come down a few points (maybe 431-432). If however, the ITAs reduce further, then CRS cutoff may stay flat or will rise.
Another interesting facet is that because OINP has been frozen to new applications, even if it reopens soon, those applicants wouldn't come into the pool until Dec or Jan when they receive their nominations. Therefore 600-1200 bucket should start to fall a lot from mid Oct onwards. And therefore scores should start to fall into the 420s from then on. This is assuming that 2018 targets are atleast on par with 2017 (300,000 landed PRs), which is what the Minister has also said.
2. Offsetting that increase is the 451-600 bucket, where the numbers have been in decline (2216 as on 22-June, 1180 as on 27-July, 570 as of 30-Aug). These would be mostly folks finishing their Bachelors or Masters in Canada and those completing an additional year of Canadian work ex. Since these have been declining for a few months, most of those new graduates must have already received the ITA and new additions will be fewer.
I think the increase in 601-1200 is offset by decrease in 441-600 bucket.
3. No IELTS results since the last draw means the addition to the 430-450 bucket should not be as many. In any case, this bucket has also been declining. From a peak of 2584 as of 6-Jul, it has fallen to 1140 as of 30-Aug. Given the most recent draw was 435, the bucket has further reduced.
This tells me that 430-450 will decline, while 451-1200 may be flat. So overall pool quality should fall since the last draw. If the ITAs issued stay the same, the CRS cutoff should come down a few points (maybe 431-432). If however, the ITAs reduce further, then CRS cutoff may stay flat or will rise.
Another interesting facet is that because OINP has been frozen to new applications, even if it reopens soon, those applicants wouldn't come into the pool until Dec or Jan when they receive their nominations. Therefore 600-1200 bucket should start to fall a lot from mid Oct onwards. And therefore scores should start to fall into the 420s from then on. This is assuming that 2018 targets are atleast on par with 2017 (300,000 landed PRs), which is what the Minister has also said.
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