Ray of Hope 66th Draw

[4RyL]

Hello everyone,
Based on my calculations and the recent June 6 changes, I predict that the draw will happen tomorrow or the 21st. The cutoff score will be 411 (+/- 2)

Concord with date! ITAs 3800. cut off will be 425. then the next one will be on 28! Details of ITAs and cut of will follow soon.

 

[lino82]

Hello everyone,
Based on my calculations and the recent June 6 changes, I predict that the draw will happen tomorrow or the 21st. The cutoff score will be 411 (+/- 2)

all the math wizards left it seems...no statistical analysis on the profile additions and the spread among scores etc...
I do hope the downward trend continues but we all may brace for a slight bump this draw considering new changes / June 16th IELTS result and the more than two weeks gap since last draw...
if the draw spills over to next week we might not see a fresh low CRS cut off for the next draw...but of course,the one after that will resume the downward trend...

 

[iamxty]

That's coding with intelligence...
but again then how the condition 3800 will hold good if there aren't 3800 profiles above 407 ...?
idea of ranking was brought in to round off the number of ITAs...will that be done with the ones written...?
No s/w background...so ignore if illogical...

Good point @lino82

You made a good point!! The ITAs dictate the CRS cut-off now. My SQL query has a shortcoming, and must be amended as under (maybe):

SELECT "ee_profile_id", crs, date_created
FROM IRCC
ORDER BY crs DESC, "date_created" ASC
LIMIT 3800

Sorry, like I said earlier, I ain't no programmer. Just a jack of some trades!!

A slight change above...I am assuming crs cut-off at 3800 will be 407

 

[ivancabrer]

all the math wizards left it seems...no statistical analysis on the profile additions and the spread among scores etc...
I do hope the downward trend continues but we all may brace for a slight bump this draw considering new changes / June 16th IELTS result and the more than two weeks gab since last draw...
if the draw spills over to next week we might not see a fresh low CRS cut off for the next draw...but of course,the one after that will resume the downward trend...

The thing is, because nobody's really sure that there is a draw tomorrow (and believe me, I'd love to see a draw happen tomorrow or on Friday). And also because of the June 6 changes, the score distribution is unknown right now, more than usual. So, we can only hope and wait for the new statistics (and hopefully a draw real soon). Before that, there may to be a lot of deviation from anyone's prediction.

 

[xibalban]

Good point @lino82
A slight change above...I am assuming crs cut-off at 3800 will be 407

That modified QUERY will fetch a table with CRSes of all top 3800 profiles. However, the CRS cut-off is not fetched. I guess, another query is required.

The thing is, because nobody's really sure that there is a draw tomorrow (and believe me, I'd love to see a draw happen tomorrow or on Friday). And also because of the June 6 changes, the score distribution is unknown right now, more than usual. So, we can only hope and wait for the new statistics (and hopefully a draw real soon). Before that, there may to be a lot of deviation from anyone's prediction.

And we wish that the deviation is negative, with a surprise CRS cut-off of 402.

 

[4RyL]

all the math wizards left it seems...no statistical analysis on the profile additions and the spread among scores etc...
I do hope the downward trend continues but we all may brace for a slight bump this draw considering new changes / June 16th IELTS result and the more than two weeks gap since last draw...
if the draw spills over to next week we might not see a fresh low CRS cut off for the next draw...but of course,the one after that will resume the downward trend...

exactly...i talk from the statistical point of view! there has been a wide window and opportunities for the score to go up. Many people prepared in advanced to take the French exam as well just to take advantage of this! Check the number of French Speakers who also applied to reside in Canada... the cut off will go up slightly in the next 2 draws and then a drop further below 413.

 

[4RyL]

That modified QUERY will fetch a table with CRSes of all top 3800 profiles. However, the CRS cut-off is not fetched. I guess, another query is required.

And we wish that the deviation is negative, with a surprise CRS cut-off of 402.

hope

 

[welcometocanada2017]

Concord with date! ITAs 3800. cut off will be 425. then the next one will be on 28! Details of ITAs and cut of will follow soon.

If the draw is tomorrow, the cutoff will be 411 (+/- 2). If its on 21st, it will be 415 (+/- 2). I hope everyone on this thread gets their ITA. Best of luck!

 

[ivancabrer]

That modified QUERY will fetch a table with CRSes of all top 3800 profiles. However, the CRS cut-off is not fetched. I guess, another query is required.

And we wish that the deviation is negative, with a surprise CRS cut-off of 402.

@xibalban If they invited more than 7500 in this round, maybe. But they haven't done that ever.

So, the best chance for people at 402 right now is consecutive draws (because they have done it in April).
Two consecutive draws could see the score go down drastically in the second draw. Add a 3rd draw in a row, and everyone above 400 will be very very happy. But that's wishful thinking.

Realistically speaking, we have to wait the CRS distribution before making any assumptions.

 

[xibalban]

@xibalban If they invited more than 7500 in this round, maybe. But they haven't done that ever.

So, the best chance for people at 402 right now is consecutive draws (because they have done it in April).
Two consecutive draws could see the score go down drastically in the second draw. Add a 3rd draw in a row, and everyone above 400 will be very very happy. But that's wishful thinking.

Realistically speaking, we have to wait the CRS distribution before making any assumptions.

That wasn't my prediction, just a communal wishful thinking.

 

[Rohitkapoor1088]

Under OINP, is the human capital stream which one needs to apply for? My noc is 0601.

Sorry, if you find my question stupid. I am confused.

Also, I am claiming job points from only one job as i have complete documents for that job though while creating the profile i wanted to be truthful and mentioned all my jobs for which i don't have any reference letters and documents are incomplete too.

Do i still need to get affidavit for the jobs for which i don't have any documents?

 

[fahadsheikh]

see Canada need ppl like you there....and quickly too..

lol... thanks man.. I hope we all can be there within this year

 

[ivancabrer]

That wasn't my prediction, just a communal wishful thinking.

I know.
I just say, let's make a communal wishful thinking that they do two or three consecutive draws, so that it's very optimistic, but very possible at the same time.

 

[fahadsheikh]

anybody having a genie in the bottle...i want to make a wish

When you make the wish, keep us all in

 

[thievaryx]

Does IRCC update the CRS distribution before every draw?