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That is what I predicted from the beginning. I mentioned since around June/July when Bill-C2 was introduced that the main purpose of this bill is to cancel the inventory backlog. Once bill C2 passes, it will empowers IRCC to likely do mass application cancellations. They will rationale this by stating it is in public interest and immigration pathways can not be viable with this huge backlog. I expect first parent/grandparent cases to be wiped out of the backlog because these are not eligible for H and C. Then, potentially any applicats from countries deemed safe and stable.

Have been predicting parents be banned from applying for H&C for a few years now since 2021 or 2022 when they didn’t create a new EOI and many more started applying for H&C. Raising the length of a superivsa or allowing people to easily extend visits almost indefinitely has also given people the false impression that parent sponsorship is guaranteed and families have not made alternate plans for care in their home countries. I assume many don’t have homes and belongings to return to which is going to become very problematic. Given the volume of the backlog and for legal reasons may be tough to refuse files for only select groups/countries versus wiping out the whole backlog and starting from scratch. At least for the parents and grandparents you could probably legally justify the exclusion because PGP and supervisas exist but for everyone else tough to pick and choose. Not sure how they will justify targeting general H&C but still have very generous country specific programs. Most Ukrainians would qualify for asylum but tough to justify that many from HK would have more H&C issues than many other countries. In general most are actually economic immigrants. The bigger issue is how is Canada going to address current/future conflicts and natural disasters with no capacity. See both are set to be discussed although you would hope a lot of the legwork would have already been done. What a mess!

 
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Wait Time
Queue length for new applicants.
12-600 months applies only H&C new applications.
It only stands to logic that applications in process will also be affected by longer wait times with proposed backlogs and hard caps on H&C. Might not be 600 months, but it is unlikely the processing time at the time is was submitted is still even remotely accurate.
 
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It only stands to logic that applications in process will also be affected by longer wait times with proposed backlogs and hard caps on H&C. Might not be 600 months, but it is unlikely the processing time at the time is was submitted is still even remotely accurate.

Yes the days of an H&C being processed in around 2 years are over. Even the rare applications the qualify for urgent processing are experiencing longer processing times. People can’t compare H&C to what it was even a year ago. Also people are actually being removed with active H&C cases which rarely happened a year ago either. If I had an active H&C case and was under 40 I would be using this time to learn French, get work experience if legal, go back to school even if it is remotely in an NOC in demand, etc.
 
Most would be removed while waiting for processing or people will leave because staying in Canada without status is not easy. In reality there will be reforms because the program is not functional.
@canuck78
What about people who received AIP.
But waiting for stage 2.
How long will they wait for to stage 2 to ecopr to pr card.
 
Most would be removed while waiting for processing or people will leave because staying in Canada without status is not easy. In reality there will be reforms because the program is not functional.
Most ? Most prefer to return home rather than live without status in Canada ? I get the impression that you don’t read all of my responses to your comments and that you prefer to stick to your core beliefs without trying to be open to other ideas. Furthermore, we don’t know your migration background, your profession, or your field of study, so it’s hard to assess the legitimacy of the information you’re sharing...
It’s good that you are interested in immigration and that you spend your free time replying to comments, but you also need to be careful about the information you share and make sure it reflects reality. Everyday life is very different from what you read in newspapers and on websites
 
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Most ? Most prefer to return home rather than live without status in Canada ? I get the impression that you don’t read all of my responses to your comments and that you prefer to stick to your core beliefs without trying to be open to other ideas. Furthermore, we don’t know your migration background, your profession, or your field of study, so it’s hard to assess the legitimacy of the information you’re sharing...
It’s good that you are interested in immigration and that you spend your free time replying to comments, but you also need to be careful about the information you share and make sure it reflects reality. Everyday life is very different from what you read in newspapers and on websites
Exactly. There is a disconnect between media narratives and on-the-ground reality. If you read newspapers, you will get the impression that 2 million temporary residents would voluntarily leave Canada, and there will be mass deportations coming. However, reality is an entirely different story. At this stage, I just hope reforms are implemented soon for H and C pathways, where applicants have to meet strict criteria to qualify for AIP. I would emphasize severe hardship in the country of origin, BIOC, and the medical/special needs of the child, and long residence in Canada. If the applicant meets most or all factors, they automatically qualify for exemption. Also, this scale could be used to triage cases already in the inventory.
 
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Exactly. There is a disconnect between media narratives and on-the-ground reality. If you read newspapers, you will get the impression that 2 million temporary residents would voluntarily leave Canada, and there will be mass deportations coming. However, reality is an entirely different story. At this stage, I just hope reforms are implemented soon for H and C pathways, where applicants have to meet strict criteria to qualify for AIP. I would emphasize severe hardship in the country of origin, BIOC, and the medical/special needs of the child, and long residence in Canada. If the applicant meets most or all factors, they automatically qualify for exemption. Also, this scale could be used to triage cases already in the inventory.
Because the media feeds on propaganda and populism, whether it’s from the left or the right…
I’m not saying they spread falsehoods, but their argumentative techniques are precisely aimed at amplifying things and dramatizing it
Honestly, I hope that the legal field remains truly restricted to those who have studied it, because I find it absurd to talk about such an extremely complex domain as law whether immigration law or any other without having the necessary knowledge! Do we do this in medicine, for example ?? Do we start analyzing people’s symptoms, making diagnoses, and interpreting what medical journals and articles say? No !! Because society is quite hostile to that, and it should be the same for the legal world… No one should speak in this field justifying it with freedom of expression or merely a personal passion, because, as I said, it is a complex and weighty domain, and very few have the legitimacy to approach it apart from jurists or perhaps those who have been closely involved through experiences with immigration law.
 
Because the media feeds on propaganda and populism, whether it’s from the left or the right…
I’m not saying they spread falsehoods, but their argumentative techniques are precisely aimed at amplifying things and dramatizing it
Honestly, I hope that the legal field remains truly restricted to those who have studied it, because I find it absurd to talk about such an extremely complex domain as law whether immigration law or any other without having the necessary knowledge! Do we do this in medicine, for example ?? Do we start analyzing people’s symptoms, making diagnoses, and interpreting what medical journals and articles say? No !! Because society is quite hostile to that, and it should be the same for the legal world… No one should speak in this field justifying it with freedom of expression or merely a personal passion, because, as I said, it is a complex and weighty domain, and very few have the legitimacy to approach it apart from jurists or perhaps those who have been closely involved through experiences with immigration law.

There is certainly a rise in populism in Canada but there are also plenty of people that are pro-immigration recognize that the levels for immigration have not been reasonable for what the Canadian infrastructure or economy can absorb. Most in Canada are just calling for more reasonable immigration policies.

You clearly don’t work in healthcare or deal with someone who accesses healthcare on a routine basis because there is constant analysis of people’s symptoms, questioning of patients, often downplaying of concerns/symptoms, etc. Also medicine is constantly interpreting data, weighing costs/benefits, often doesn’t have a diagnosis or clear treatments, etc. There is often nuance involved, differences how MDs interpret and implement data, how MDs practice, etc.
 
Most ? Most prefer to return home rather than live without status in Canada ? I get the impression that you don’t read all of my responses to your comments and that you prefer to stick to your core beliefs without trying to be open to other ideas. Furthermore, we don’t know your migration background, your profession, or your field of study, so it’s hard to assess the legitimacy of the information you’re sharing...
It’s good that you are interested in immigration and that you spend your free time replying to comments, but you also need to be careful about the information you share and make sure it reflects reality. Everyday life is very different from what you read in newspapers and on websites

I’m sure many do not want to return home. The difference is that Canadian attitude towards immigration has changed and so has the political pressure to do something about it. For decades Canada clearly knew there was a large population without status and unless you committed a crime there was minimal action taken and people were left to live without status in Canada. Many areas did not even limit services based on whether you had status or not. Canadians took minimal interest in the issue. This has changed and so the government is having to take action. We have already seen changes in just the H&C application in the past 1-2 years. A year ago it may have been relatively easy to put your removal on hold if you had an H&C in process while that is currently not the case for many applicants if you read JRs. We have seen regions of the country where schools boards are now checking the status of children and parents before being able to register children for school, hospitals that are no longer willing to provide care on a payment plan, etc. Far from as extreme as in the US but the government has already started putting in policies that will make it much more uncomfortable and difficult to remain in Canada without status in the hopes that people will leave on their own. How effective it will be is yet to be seen but the immigration system was incredibly lenient until recently. I have seen people apply for asylum and H&C multiple times and although rejected multiple times Canada took no action. That is very unlikely to be the case going forward.
 
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Exactly. There is a disconnect between media narratives and on-the-ground reality. If you read newspapers, you will get the impression that 2 million temporary residents would voluntarily leave Canada, and there will be mass deportations coming. However, reality is an entirely different story. At this stage, I just hope reforms are implemented soon for H and C pathways, where applicants have to meet strict criteria to qualify for AIP. I would emphasize severe hardship in the country of origin, BIOC, and the medical/special needs of the child, and long residence in Canada. If the applicant meets most or all factors, they automatically qualify for exemption. Also, this scale could be used to triage cases already in the inventory.

The issue is that may at most cut cases by around half and that may be a generous estimate. You would still be left with 25k so 25 year processing times vs 50? What do you define long residence in Canada 5 years, 10 years, 20 years? Is BIOC only for Canadian citizen children or for all children? Does this incentivize having a child in Canada? What defines severe hardship? Do all special needs/medical cases count or does severity and access to medical care in their home country count? Any of these are quite subjective which is why determining who would qualify would be very challenging and time consuming. There is no simple answer/solution.
 
@canuck78
What about people who received AIP.
But waiting for stage 2.
How long will they wait for to stage 2 to ecopr to pr card.

Currently AIP should prevent removal. Currently wait is around a year but could get longer. There is just so much uncertainty when it comes to H&C so tough to give concrete answers.