H&C Humanitarian Ground with/or Without Failed refugee claim

[Victoria-20241]

IRCC Approval Rates by Program, 2025 (Jan-April)

Work Permits (TFWP) - 69%
Work Permits (IMP) - 69%
Work Permit Extension (TFWP) - 49%
Study Permit - 32%
Temporary Resident Visa - 48%

Canadian Experience Class (Express Entry) - 94%
Self-Employed Class - 32%
Start-Up Visa - 23%
Federal Skilled Worker (Express Entry) - 78%
Quebec Business Class - 51%

Parents & Grandparents - 82%
Humanitarian & Compassionate - 23%

 

[canuck78]

IRCC Approval Rates by Program, 2025 (Jan-April)

Work Permits (TFWP) - 69%
Work Permits (IMP) - 69%
Work Permit Extension (TFWP) - 49%
Study Permit - 32%
Temporary Resident Visa - 48%

Canadian Experience Class (Express Entry) - 94%
Self-Employed Class - 32%
Start-Up Visa - 23%
Federal Skilled Worker (Express Entry) - 78%
Quebec Business Class - 51%

Parents & Grandparents - 82%
Humanitarian & Compassionate - 23%

The more interesting part is the table which is just scary. There is at least 115k H&C applications in the backlog when 2026 target is 6.5k I think. The year after 4.5k. The math doesn’t work.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1965579904415924276

 

[wiener]

The more interesting part is the table which is just scary. There is at least 115k H&C applications in the backlog when 2026 target is 6.5k I think. The year after 4.5k. The math doesn’t work.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1965579904415924276

That is very important question for the Government and new minister Ms Diab. Even for refugees, the current inventory is more than 250k and target admission is 58k. Regarding H and C, the inventory of public policy alone is 60k. I have said multiple times that these numbers will not work in reality.

 

[canuck78]

That is very important question for the Government and new minister Ms Diab. Even for refugees, the current inventory is more than 250k and target admission is 58k. Regarding H and C, the inventory of public policy alone is 60k. I have said multiple times that these numbers will not work in reality.

That is just the general H&C category. Way over 100k for all H&C programs which fall under public policy. Asylum claims closer to 300k I believe at this point based on a recent data. Agree the math does not math.

 

[wiener]

That is just the general H&C category. Way over 100k for all H&C programs which fall under public policy. Asylum claims closer to 300k I believe at this point based on a recent data. Agree the math does not math.

This number 250k is not for asylum claims. 250k include protected persons who are in Canada and their dependents overseas plus Government sponsored refugees. So now current inventory of refugees applying for PR is more than 250K (approximately 266k) and the target is only 58k. How is this going to work I dont know. There is no quota for asylum claims. It is not under IRCC and IRB acceptance rate of asylum claims is 83%.

 

[WellWell2021]

IRCC Approval Rates by Program, 2025 (Jan-April)

Work Permits (TFWP) - 69%
Work Permits (IMP) - 69%
Work Permit Extension (TFWP) - 49%
Study Permit - 32%
Temporary Resident Visa - 48%

Canadian Experience Class (Express Entry) - 94%
Self-Employed Class - 32%
Start-Up Visa - 23%
Federal Skilled Worker (Express Entry) - 78%
Quebec Business Class - 51%

Parents & Grandparents - 82%
Humanitarian & Compassionate - 23%

Does this mean, that the rest have been refused and only 23% have been accepted, or that 23% have been approved while the others are still being processed?
Also, I assume that 'approval' here means final approval, not just approval at the first stage, right??

 

[canuck78]

Does this mean, that the rest have been refused and only 23% have been accepted, or that 23% have been approved while the others are still being processed?
Also, I assume that 'approval' here means final approval, not just approval at the first stage, right??

Means 23% of H&C cases will get PR.

 

[canuck78]

This number 250k is not for asylum claims. 250k include protected persons who are in Canada and their dependents overseas plus Government sponsored refugees. So now current inventory of refugees applying for PR is more than 250K (approximately 266k) and the target is only 58k. How is this going to work I dont know. There is no quota for asylum claims. It is not under IRCC and IRB acceptance rate of asylum claims is 83%.

Obviously. Not sure how I missed that. Long day.

 

[WellWell2021]

Means 23% of H&C cases will get PR.

I don't think so,
There is nothing that proves that! An application for permanent residence on humanitarian grounds is only approved once the applicant has actually received permanent residence that is what we call approval.
On the other hand, the first-stage approval is called an Approval in Principle AIP, not simply an approval, since the applicant’s case has not yet been finalized.
Anyway... Hope I will get an approval !

 

[canuck78]

I don't think so,
There is nothing that proves that! An application for permanent residence on humanitarian grounds is only approved once the applicant has actually received permanent residence that is what we call approval.
On the other hand, the first-stage approval is called an Approval in Principle AIP, not simply an approval, since the applicant’s case has not yet been finalized.
Anyway... Hope I will get an approval !

We are talking full approval rate which would PR not AIP. AIP is not guaranteed PR. It typically leads to PR but not always. This is government data so choose to believe what you want. Used to be around 50% but given that IRCC is being more selective and many are applying for H&C because they don’t have another pathway to secure PR it makes sense that approval rates would decrease.

 

[canuck78]

Looks like we have an idea of the H&C category PR quota allocation breakdown. Looks like general H&C currently is only allocated an around 16% of the H&C PR quota. That would mean around 1100 people next year and around 690 people in 2027 if the allocations remain the same and no other programs are added to H&C.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1965913014319853611

 

[wiener]

Looks like we have an idea of the H&C category PR quota allocation breakdown. Looks like general H&C currently is only allocated an around 16% of the H&C PR quota. That would mean around 1100 people next year and around 690 people in 2027 if the allocations remain the same and no other programs are added to H&C.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1965913014319853611

You can establish an admission target in economic pathways by controlling the number of draws and applicants invited in each draw. However, for refugees and H and C, the inventory is already quite large, and you can not have an approval rate of 3% for H and C and 25% for refugees applying for PR. It is like asking protected persons in Canada to live indefinitely in Canada without PR. I think IRCC will soon find out that these numbers will not work in reality.

 

[WellWell2021]

We are talking full approval rate which would PR not AIP. AIP is not guaranteed PR. It typically leads to PR but not always. This is government data so choose to believe what you want. Used to be around 50% but given that IRCC is being more selective and many are applying for H&C because they don’t have another pathway to secure PR it makes sense that approval rates would decrease.

That's exactly what I just said !

But what do you mean by believe what you want ? I have to believe what exactly ?

 

[Kip4987]

Has anyone who received their approval in principle (aip) on or after July 2024 received final decisions yet?

 

[canuck78]

You can establish an admission target in economic pathways by controlling the number of draws and applicants invited in each draw. However, for refugees and H and C, the inventory is already quite large, and you can not have an approval rate of 3% for H and C and 25% for refugees applying for PR. It is like asking protected persons in Canada to live indefinitely in Canada without PR. I think IRCC will soon find out that these numbers will not work in reality.

Where are you getting the 3% and 25% approval rates for H&C and refugees? Do you mean processing rate per year for refugees? Protected people and refugees are already living in Canada for multiple years before getting PR. They can work, , study access healthcare, travel, study etc. Not sure anyone would call that a major issue. For H&C we have already seen removals increase and I agree the program needs major reforms to limit who can apply. Canada also likely will hope that many will return home if chances of approval are very low, processing times are long and they may get removed while processing, no access to WP/SP, etc.