no no this analysis is slightly misinterpreted... its not like 762 applicants with over 483 entered the pool lol, you are forgetting that more than 60% of them have PNP or LMIA, and they were already part of the earlier pool, and probably recd nominations between the 2 draws...istari said:
Round of Invitation & Cutoff Score!!! Logical Reasoning
- Thread starter Waqas.vikc
- Start date
Of course they are. They've stopped accepting new applications, but they're still processing old applications.rabzodemorayh said:
And by the time they start accepting new applications again, they will still be processing old applications.
Most PNPs stopped accepting new applications around the
PNPs like SINP, Manitoba, British Columbia opens, closes and reopens. SINP can open anytime soon. If not this month then definitely once before this year ends. Lawyer says it usually takes 6 months to get 600 bonus points through PNP provided paperwork is correct.istari said:
Good luck all.
ah cmon man... i know people who have score of 481 and are in the pool since may, missed cut off score by 1 pointbinjoy said:You just make a lot of sense.
But that ultimately makes my blood pressure shoot.
Sitting in 479 from last 3 drawsNot a good feeling my friend ... :'(
479 is an excellent score, mark my words you will have ITA before end of this month (if i predict correctly, even before end of this week)
PNPs have not been given after mid-year. The effect of this might be seen six months down the line, that is , in December and January considering that on average six months are required to receive those 600 points. So now (in October) people who were selected for PNPs in April/May will be entering the pool. This means high cutoff till November.
On the other hand, earlier number of ITAs were 750 on average. Thus people receiving 600 points through PNPs or LMIA accounted for these and cutoffs didn't come down. Assuming the rate of people receiving 600 points remains same and number of ITAs are doubled, 750 more people (apart from those receiving 600 points which make up almost 750) will receive ITAs. This will push the cut off down steadily in next 3-4 draws. After Novemeber when people receiving 600 points will fall down drastically, the cutoff will also drop drastically (assuming 1300-1500 ITAs consistently).
So my prediction for cutoffs are as belows:
5th October: 480-481
19th October: 476-477
2nd November: 473-474
16th November: around 470
And a steep fall into 460s afterwards over the course of two months, Dec & Jan.
On the other hand, earlier number of ITAs were 750 on average. Thus people receiving 600 points through PNPs or LMIA accounted for these and cutoffs didn't come down. Assuming the rate of people receiving 600 points remains same and number of ITAs are doubled, 750 more people (apart from those receiving 600 points which make up almost 750) will receive ITAs. This will push the cut off down steadily in next 3-4 draws. After Novemeber when people receiving 600 points will fall down drastically, the cutoff will also drop drastically (assuming 1300-1500 ITAs consistently).
So my prediction for cutoffs are as belows:
5th October: 480-481
19th October: 476-477
2nd November: 473-474
16th November: around 470
And a steep fall into 460s afterwards over the course of two months, Dec & Jan.
very interesting analysis, however PNPs have been handed out regularly by all provinces, except OINP which issued PTs in bulk at the end of last year/start of this year... and OINP is the biggest chunk of all...rubinderjit said:
BTW just leanrt that BC has sent out ITA to some 700 odd people at the end of september, adding those guys also into the pool means CRS cut off will be high for a little while longer unfortunatley... lets wait and see what happens though
BC sent out 647 ITAs out of which 228 are in Express Entry category. They gave 235 EE iTAs on Sep 15 also. Still the cutoff went down.thestunner316 said:
https://www.welcomebc.ca/Immigrate-to-B-C/B-C-Provincial-Nominee-Program/Invitations-to-Apply
Some OINP applications also have been processed in these two weeks [Source: Other threads]
But these will still be in ~750 applicants that will receive 600 points. Like the cut off went down in last draw even after these nominations, similar trend is expected this time also.
Only thing we should hope for that no. of ITAs shouldn't go down. Otherwise, all calculations and expectations will be screwed.
People with CRS 480 and above have an extremely high chance in the next draw. Once the people at CRS of 481 are cleared, next big cohort is 478 which should be the expected cutoff in next draw.
nominations does not count against federal quota. When there are nominations, CIC will increase the number of people invited if they want to meet their goals. I believe nominations has zero effect on the cutoff. Just IMO.