Ray of hope 57th draw?

[limestone]

Ya I was confident but different opinions in the previous thread decimated it.

a lot was decimated, forget and embrace your Canadian future

All will celebrate you after the draw.

Advice: start reading post ITA threads

 

[fatani]

People with 475 start preparing your docs think you have more than 90 days.

 

[Tatya_Vinchu]

That thread had freakin 1000s of posts, highest ever on a ray of hope thread I guess. Can imagine how many people are getting desperate now cause of cut offs going low.

 

[akhilvh]

I think the reason why oinp is not giving any invites might be the current downfall in the CRS scores in EE. I hope they are awaiting for the scores to settle at a particular score and will start giving NOI once the condition is reached. So I really hope that the score will fall further and settle somewhere around 425. Keeping fingers crossed.

 

[hopesarehigh]

just came to know the longest ray of hope thread was taken off. We had it coming. 1-2 individuals spoiling a beautiful thread.

Anyways I am still hoping on 428 with 3900 ita

 

[heynow]

As I see it, the cut off will continue to get lower as long as the number of application remains hight(2500+).. now a questions to all how have been here for a long time, why do we see such a jump in ITAs compared to last year?

 

[MattyTj]

People with 475 start preparing your docs think you have more than 90 days.

I'd say 429 and up start preparing your documents!! As long as they don't have system maintenance this Tuesday night, I'd say 100% there will be a draw this Wednesday!

 

[MattyTj]

As I see it, the cut off will continue to get lower as long as the number of application remains hight(2500+).. now a questions to all how have been here for a long time, why do we see such a jump in ITAs compared to last year?

The reason is that all paper based applications are finally done processing. These ended in Dec 14, but took almost 2 years to process. These counted against quotas in 2015 and 2016. Now that all Permanent residence applications are done online, the full quota come from the EE pool starting this year. Hence, invitation numbers should always be 2000-2500+ per draw unless annual targets go down. That's great news for all of us!!

 

[heynow]

The reason is that all paper based applications are finally done processing. These ended in Dec 14, but took almost 2 years to process. These counted against quotas in 2015 and 2016. Now that all Permanent residence applications are done online, the full quota come from the EE pool starting this year. Hence, invitation numbers should always be 2000-2500+ per draw unless annual targets go down. That's great news for all of us!!

So that means anything about 2500-2800 are backlogs ? if thats true then eventually when the backlogs gets cleared, we will see a steady 2500 on regular basis and not some 3800+ thats happening here right now..

BTW I just noticed your signature... I am also at 437... I am not sure whats going to be cutoff for next draw... it can go up if they start throttling the number of application...

 

[xibalban]

I had started losing hopes, but the administrators stepped right in.
Great news!!

I hope the CRS drops to 400.

 

[robb83]

So that means anything about 2500-2800 are backlogs ? if thats true then eventually when the backlogs gets cleared, we will see a steady 2500 on regular basis and not some 3800+ thats happening here right now..

BTW I just noticed your signature... I am also at 437... I am not sure whats going to be cutoff for next draw... it can go up if they start throttling the number of application...

No, there are approximately new 2000 people entering the pool each week.

At 437 you're in.

Regular draws and them "having to issue 3000+" ITAs to meet their requirements mean the CRS cut offs will go down slowly.

Too high CRS will mean not enough invites and not keeping them on target.

 

[MattyTj]

So that means anything about 2500-2800 are backlogs ? if thats true then eventually when the backlogs gets cleared, we will see a steady 2500 on regular basis and not some 3800+ thats happening here right now..

BTW I just noticed your signature... I am also at 437... I am not sure whats going to be cutoff for next draw... it can go up if they start throttling the number of application...

Since there are no more paper backlogs, it's likely that all draws will average in the 2500-3000ish range unless annual targets change. The back log is cleared so draws around the above mentioned size should be the new normal for a while.

As for the points next draw, I can't see that 3000+ people will have scores over 434 (the last draw score), so I feel that points will drop a bit. My gut is telling me 428-430, but it did have some beer in it last night so who knows!

The last 2 Tuesday's they had system maintenance and as someone pointed out in the previous 57th ray of hope forum, draws have never come the Wednesday after system maintenance. That's why as long as it doesn't happen this week, I'm very confident for a draw!

 

[Shaz1]

I am newbie sitting at 426..What are the chances..Dont know what wud b the cut off after this long gap

 

[MattyTj]

I am newbie sitting at 426..What are the chances..Dont know what wud b the cut off after this long gap

I'd tell you to start gathering your paperwork (police certificate, etc). If not this draw, hopefully the next for you!

 

[limestone]

No, there are approximately new 2000 people entering the pool each week.

At 437 you're in.

Regular draws and them "having to issue 3000+" ITAs to meet their requirements mean the CRS cut offs will go down slowly.

Too high CRS will mean not enough invites and not keeping them on target.

hey robb,

Is there any solid evidence or any trustworthy source about ~2000ppl joining everyweek?

It is really an important figure for draw estimation, and I didnt see it anywhere else. Really would like to know how are we sure about this.

BR