processing times...I still don't get it..

[KarlR]

Ok,I know this question gets asked all the time and I know it's hard to explain...

So,people always panic when they see the processing time for their visa office,but are always told that their application will most likely be done faster (as we see the average on the spreadsheets to be a lot sooner).

From what I've heard,the times posted on the CIC website,are the times for 80 percent of applicants,and this is where they get their processing times from.

This is what confuses me...shouldn't this mean that only 20 percent of us will see a faster visa approval than the times stated online?

Let's take ottawa for example,that has a timeline of 15 months posted on the CiC website.

Shouldn't this mean that for every 5 applicants in ottawa,4 of them will have to wait 15 months for their visa,where as only one person will see a shorter time frame?


Can someone please explain this to me...so far I've just been that guy that quietly nods along with everyone else and pretends to understand it

Thanks!

 

[rhcohen2014]

yes, it is confusing. no, the way you are explaining it is wrong. to me, it's also counterintuitive. here is how canuck_uk explained it to me:

Quote from: canuck_in_uk on February 14, 2015, 04:31:43 pm
I don't think it's counterintuitive at all. As it says, the posted time is how long it took to process 80% of all apps. The issue is that most people don't bother to read that and understand what it means; they simply look at the processing time and assume it's an average.

Let's say there were 100 apps submitted and the posted processing time is 12 months. That means that the 80th app was processed at the 12 month mark. The 79 apps done before that were processed faster than the posted time. Even if all of those 79 apps were done in 5 months and that 80th app took 12 months, the posted time will still be 12 months.

 

[DanSlh]

yes, it is confusing. no, the way you are explaining it is wrong. to me, it's also counterintuitive. here is how canuck_uk explained it to me:

Quote from: canuck_in_uk on February 14, 2015, 04:31:43 pm
I don't think it's counterintuitive at all. As it says, the posted time is how long it took to process 80% of all apps. The issue is that most people don't bother to read that and understand what it means; they simply look at the processing time and assume it's an average.

Let's say there were 100 apps submitted and the posted processing time is 12 months. That means that the 80th app was processed at the 12 month mark. The 79 apps done before that were processed faster than the posted time. Even if all of those 79 apps were done in 5 months and that 80th app took 12 months, the posted time will still be 12 months.

Wtf??? Wow it makes perfect sense to me!
...finally!
I never understood this processing time too.
But it doesn't include the first stage, right?

 

[OhCanadiana]

Ok,I know this question gets asked all the time and I know it's hard to explain...

So,people always panic when they see the processing time for their visa office,but are always told that their application will most likely be done faster (as we see the average on the spreadsheets to be a lot sooner).

From what I've heard,the times posted on the CIC website,are the times for 80 percent of applicants,and this is where they get their processing times from.

This is what confuses me...shouldn't this mean that only 20 percent of us will see a faster visa approval than the times stated online?

Let's take ottawa for example,that has a timeline of 15 months posted on the CiC website.

Shouldn't this mean that for every 5 applicants in ottawa,4 of them will have to wait 15 months for their visa,where as only one person will see a shorter time frame?


Can someone please explain this to me...so far I've just been that guy that quietly nods along with everyone else and pretends to understand it

Thanks!

When CIC quotes times "based on how long it took to process 80 percent of all cases" they are telling you how long it took them to finish processing 80% of the applications. Let's use an example of a hypothetical visa office that processes 5 applications in the following times:

Case # 1 - decision made in 1 month (decision can be issue CoPR or denial)
Case # 2 - 2 months
Case # 3 - 5 months
Case # 4 - 8 months
Case # 5 - 24 months (really complex case requiring detailed background check)

This visa office would complete processing for 80% of the cases within 8 months because by the completion of the eighth month Cases 1, 2, 3, AND 4 would be completed (having five cases makes the Math easy as each case represents 20% of the caseload). This allows them to ignore statistical outliers in the remaining 20% of cases (in our example case #5) and give you a sense of the timing by when your application is most likely to be completed by.

CIC publishes 20%, 50%, and 80% statistics by Visa Office through the Open Data project. For a historic example, you can see what they were in 2011 at http://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/case-processing-speed-at-visa-offices-step-2-t102206.0.html. The direct link in that post to the Open Data Project doesn't work anymore, but search for Permanent Resident Applications Processed Abroad and Processing Times for the latest quarterly info available.

ETA: beaten by rcohen2014 who copy pasted canuck_in_uk's answer faster than I typed!

 

[KarlR]

Ahhh!i finally understand it now!thanks for explaining everyone!


Seems a strange way to do it...but then again,it is CIC! ;D


Thanks again everyone!

 

[jamsham12]

Seems like ottawa has been in hibernation mode since the end if the last year until now ..... :-\

 

[canuck_in_uk]

Was going to post but I already did, thanks rhcohen .

Also, if anyone is interested, here is a link to the most recent data set covering up to Sept 30th, 2014. http://data.gc.ca/data/dataset/427337d0-7c36-4fed-8428-c6a63f8c19b3

 

[KarlR]

Was going to post but I already did, thanks rhcohen .

Also, if anyone is interested, here is a link to the most recent data set covering up to Sept 30th, 2014. http://data.gc.ca/data/dataset/427337d0-7c36-4fed-8428-c6a63f8c19b3

Very interesting to see the accual numbers!thanks for that!

 

[Ponga]

CIC could clarify this by simply changing the wording to say "80% processed within x months", rather than " ...IN x months".

But then again...why would they do anything to clarify their process?!

 

[Talwinder]

hi everyone
delivered my app on 10th feb
waiting for next step with all u guys

also now im worried about one thing

i have sent an original Notice of assessement instead of option c printout of NoA.

is it ok or not

 

[Awesomeg]

hi everyone
delivered my app on 10th feb
waiting for next step with all u guys

also now im worried about one thing

i have sent an original Notice of assessement instead of option c printout of NoA.

is it ok or not

Notice of assessment does not necessarily include all information from Option C,
if they consider that it is enough it will be accepted, but if not they may send
a request for further information.
At this point you can not do anything about it,
You may send to the embassy in charge of your file the Option C printouts as soon
as you get a file number. meanwhile you can not do anything.

Good luck