My ambitious attempt at trying to predict the number of ITAs for Jan. draw!!!

[m_dewan33]

There's no doubt that there is a large information gap about the first draw under the Express Entry (EE). There's still no official statement about the draw date or the number of ITAs that will be issued following the draw. So I'm taking it upon myself to make a rough prediction! 8)

First, lets get some facts:
1. No. of anticipated draws per year - (15-25)
- Source: http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/resources/publications/employers/express-entry-presentation-briefing.asp
2. No. of immigrants (principal applicants for economic class only) admitted in 2013, 64,765
- Source: http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/resources/publications/annual-report-2014/index.asp#sec-5-3
(check table 2)

Now lets make a realistic assumption on the number of ITAs that will be given during the year 2015:
we see that the No. of economic class immigrants were 64k for the year 2013, the number probably wont vary so much on a year to year basis.

Furthermore this news article on CBC reports that the Government officials told them that approximately 65,000 to 75,000 candidates will be offered Permanent residency through the Economic Class and of them :

● 47,000 to 51,000 will come through the federal skilled worker class and the federal skilled trades class combined.
● 21,000 to 23,000 skilled workers through the Canadian experience class.
Source: http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/express-entry-immigration-points-system-revealed-before-jan-1-launch-1.2852922

From the above information lets assume that the no.of ITA given during the year will be 65000 (I'm taking the most conservative number)

With 15 to 25 draws planned for the year, my guess is that there will be less draws in the first few months before the 'Job Bank' become operational and more draws following its launch around may-june.

If the no. of draws is 15, the first draw will pick 65000/15 = 4333 ITAs
If the no. of draws is 25, the first draw will pick 65000/25 = 2600 ITAs

So the no. of ITA should fall between these two numbers of 2600 and 4333. A simple average will give us the no. to be 3466 ~ 3500

So, there you have it folks!! 3500 it is

Please share your thoughts and inputs...........

Cheers

 

[curious_123]

To be honest i will bet around 2500 ITA. All CEC and remaining will be FSW

 

[dukhi]

What about making a prediction for lowest points getting an ita?

 

[canadaexpress2015]

Great job with the prediction!

 

[Nightrocker]

There's no doubt that there is a large information gap about the first draw under the Express Entry (EE). There's still no official statement about the draw date or the number of ITAs that will be issued following the draw. So I'm taking it upon myself to make a rough prediction! 8)

First, lets get some facts:
1. No. of anticipated draws per year - (15-25)
- Source: http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/resources/publications/employers/express-entry-presentation-briefing.asp
2. No. of immigrants (principal applicants for economic class only) admitted in 2013, 64,765
- Source: http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/resources/publications/annual-report-2014/index.asp#sec-5-3
(check table 2)

Now lets make a realistic assumption on the number of ITAs that will be given during the year 2015:
we see that the No. of economic class immigrants were 64k for the year 2013, the number probably wont vary so much on a year to year basis.

Furthermore this news article on CBC reports that the Government officials told them that approximately 65,000 to 75,000 candidates will be offered Permanent residency through the Economic Class and of them :

● 47,000 to 51,000 will come through the federal skilled worker class and the federal skilled trades class combined.
● 21,000 to 23,000 skilled workers through the Canadian experience class.
Source: http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/express-entry-immigration-points-system-revealed-before-jan-1-launch-1.2852922

From the above information lets assume that the no.of ITA given during the year will be 65000 (I'm taking the most conservative number)

With 15 to 25 draws planned for the year, my guess is that there will be less draws in the first few months before the 'Job Bank' become operational and more draws following its launch around may-june.

If the no. of draws is 15, the first draw will pick 65000/15 = 4333 ITAs
If the no. of draws is 25, the first draw will pick 65000/25 = 2600 ITAs

So the no. of ITA should fall between these two numbers of 2600 and 4333. A simple average will give us the no. to be 3466 ~ 3500

So, there you have it folks!! 3500 it is

Please share your thoughts and inputs...........

Cheers

That's some great calculation you have done! +1 for this.

Any predication on least score selection?

 

[m_dewan33]

What about making a prediction for lowest points getting an ita?

Unfortunately, there simply aren't enough data to make a realistic predictions on the least point to get an ITA. However I'll still give a shot!

The only data that is available is the EE spreadsheet. But the problem with using the spreadsheet is that there are plenty of EE applicants who are not a member of this forum and hence are not represented by the SS. So I'll need to depend on my judgement for a few of the assumptions.

Lets get to work ....

No. of people on the SS so far 420 (approx.) till Jan 10, thats 420/10 = 42 applications a day

so essentially if the draws take place on Jan 30, 30X42 = 1260 application till the first draw

I'm assuming that 80% of the forum members who have an active EE profile are in the SS, so the total applications will be (1260/80)X100 = 1575

Furthermore I'll assume that 1 out of every 5 EE applicants are a member of this forum (This is the weakest assumption, I'll admit)
So, the total applicants worldwide for EE at the end of January will be 1575X5 = 7875

Like I mentioned before the No. of ITAs will be roughly 3500. But for this calculations I'll use a more conservative no. of 3000

So that gives (3000/7875)X100 = 38% i.e. the top 38% of all the applicants will receive an ITA

Again using the SS as the sample and utilizing the "standing from the top" stats,
38% correspond to a EE point of 402

But TBH I reckon the point will be between 425 and 450, just my gut feeling!

 

[sumit.singh.hallan]

Kudos to your calculations.

 

[srbhrn]

Unfortunately, there simply aren't enough data to make a realistic predictions on the least point to get an ITA. However I'll still give a shot!

The only data that is available is the EE spreadsheet. But the problem with using the spreadsheet is that there are plenty of EE applicants who are not a member of this forum and hence are not represented by the SS. So I'll need to depend on my judgement for a few of the assumptions.

Lets get to work ....

No. of people on the SS so far 420 (approx.) till Jan 10, thats 420/10 = 42 applications a day

so essentially if the draws take place on Jan 30, 30X42 = 1260 application till the first draw

I'm assuming that 80% of the forum members who have an active EE profile are in the SS, so the total applications will be (1260/80)X100 = 1575

Furthermore I'll assume that 1 out of every 5 EE applicants are a member of this forum (This is the weakest assumption, I'll admit)
So, the total applicants worldwide for EE at the end of January will be 1575X5 = 7875

Like I mentioned before the No. of ITAs will be roughly 3500. But for this calculations I'll use a more conservative no. of 3000

So that gives (3000/7875)X100 = 38% i.e. the top 38% of all the applicants will receive an ITA

Again using the SS as the sample and utilizing the "standing from the top" stats,
38% correspond to a EE point of 402

But TBH I reckon the point will be between 425 and 450, just my gut feeling!

+1 for your original post .. plus the sources of information ..

as far as predicting the score is concerned, we need to see spreadsheet as the most distributed source of information we have and everything except the count of entries is a realistic representation of EE applicants .. this is also verified by the fact that I was 10% 'standing from top' when there were 200 entries in SS, and 10% when there are over 400 entries (I am entry number 1)..

plus the spreadsheet has been active for over a month now so your calculation of number of entries per day is off the metric.. now what we can do is that divide the entries in some ranges such as following:
Lets say total applicants for EE in January draw will be
1. <5000
2. 5000-10000
3. >10000

going by your prediction that 3000 will be invited from first draw, here is what would be the cut off score for these three ranges:

range score selection conservative Score selection optimistic
< 5000 364 All
5000-10000 416 364
10000-15000 439 416
15000-30000 471 439
>30000 All ITAs will be consumed up by people with Job Offers/ PNPs as they represent 5-10% of entire sheet

 

[MedZed]

@ m_dewan33

+1 for your great job.

 

[hedonist10]

We can not predict lowest score just from sample data on this website.....it will be biased towards high score. As most of the people on this web site have been trying for immigration for past 2-3 years. So they are better prepared, tend to have higher score. Also it is difficult to predict total population size based on sample from this web site. No way the people using this site are 40% of total profiles (even 10% will be a bold statement). I would predict the total number of profiles to be greater than 50,000 for first draw, as everybody got time to prepare for express entry. In the first draw I don't think there will be people with PNP or approved job offer. Also people with Canadian job experience who tend to have higher scores have different stream to apply under CEC.
My prediction is that the the lowest score selected will be 425 with a deviation of plus minus 10

 

[m_dewan33]

We can not predict lowest score just from sample data on this website.....it will be biased towards high score. As most of the people on this web site have been trying for immigration for past 2-3 years. So they are better prepared, tend to have higher score. Also it is difficult to predict total population size based on sample from this web site. No way the people using this site are 40% of total profiles (even 10% will be a bold statement). I would predict the total number of profiles to be greater than 50,000 for first draw, as everybody got time to prepare for express entry. In the first draw I don't think there will be people with PNP or approved job offer. Also people with Canadian job experience who tend to have higher scores have different stream to apply under CEC.
My prediction is that the the lowest score selected will be 425 with a deviation of plus minus 10

My point exactly! The sample data from the SS cannot be taken as a representation of the total population.

However I don't think the number of profiles will reach 50,000 for the first draw. That is a huge overstatement.

425 seems like a reasonable cutoff score. I'll be really surprised if it goes beyond 450 or below 400.

 

[andyCanadian]

Can you guys please let know, what will be the process of extending invitaion from companies.
If after an invitation it takes 6 months to get a PR, will the companies wait THAT long ???

 

[patreya]

I am not sure if this analysis is valid.

1) It is not necessary that CIS will first decide on how many ITA to issue, and then look at the points. The total score is 1200, and they have been emphasising that 'only after getting job' you get ITA but 'some' might get without job offer. It will look embarassing for them if they choose everyone from above 400 out of 1200 points

2) They do not have to make the first draw same as other draws. They could just draw 500 or even 100 ITAs during the first January draw. In the next one they can issue 5000-10,000 ITA

3) I think the minimum points will be either 600 or 500. Both will employ that either they have valid job offer or that they are in Canada, or maximum points (including French). I am pretty sure that there will be more than 100 applicants with this score, and I am guessing they will choose them.

4) I think a lot of people especially those who have high points, don't bother coming to forum, because they do not need much advise. It is the middle order who are frequent of this website.

Btw, my point is 478.

 

[m_dewan33]

I am not sure if this analysis is valid.

1) It is not necessary that CIS will first decide on how many ITA to issue, and then look at the points. The total score is 1200, and they have been emphasising that 'only after getting job' you get ITA but 'some' might get without job offer. It will look embarassing for them if they choose everyone from above 400 out of 1200 points

2) They do not have to make the first draw same as other draws. They could just draw 500 or even 100 ITAs during the first January draw. In the next one they can issue 5000-10,000 ITA

3) I think the minimum points will be either 600 or 500. Both will employ that either they have valid job offer or that they are in Canada, or maximum points (including French). I am pretty sure that there will be more than 100 applicants with this score, and I am guessing they will choose them.

4) I think a lot of people especially those who have high points, don't bother coming to forum, because they do not need much advise. It is the middle order who are frequent of this website.

Btw, my point is 478.

1. Its not true that CIC will issue ITA only to those having a job offer and hence have a point over 600. There are no such statements from CIC.

2. True. They may consider the first draw to be a test of some sort and give only a handful of ITAs.

3. If they give a only a handful of ITAs like <500 then the minimum points may go over 500

4. I agree

You've got a good chance with 478. Even if not in the first draw, you'll definitely get in at the 2nd or 3rd draw.

Mine is 456

 

[praneet87]

My point exactly! The sample data from the SS cannot be taken as a representation of the total population.

However I don't think the number of profiles will reach 50,000 for the first draw. That is a huge overstatement.

425 seems like a reasonable cutoff score. I'll be really surprised if it goes beyond 450 or below 400.

425 is a very high cutoff score. It will be 380 or 390.