Well, we know for sure that it's currently taking 7-8 months from receipt before they even start to assess an inland application for first stage approval. The
processing timelines say that CPC-Vegreville is currently assessing for first stage applications received through November 26, 2009. If there are no complications with the application when they assess it for first stage, new temporary status is issued (like an open work permit, if that was requested) and the file progresses to second stage. At Vegreville this can take anywhere from a few months to whenever. The biggest variable here seems to be that CPC-V appears to do extensive background checks (whereas that does not always appear to be true of the overseas offices) and those checks sometimes take
forever to come back. I know of one inland applicant who had a very uncomplicated application - no interview required - whose application stayed at Vegreville, but it still took at least a year after AIP for him to get landed. They blamed the background checks.
If there are complications and the application is transferred to the local office (normally before AIP) you're looking at indefinite processing times. It won't get transferred until after the 7-8 months (remember, they don't even look at them until then), and then it's all dependent on that particular office's work load and how backed up they are. The scary part is that I actually had an officer at the local office tell me one time that she had "shelved" an inland application because she was waiting for legislation that might come through that would give her discretion to approve the application on humanitarian and compassionate grounds. This was at least a year ago and, as far as I know, there has been no legislation enacted since that gives processing officers H&C discretionary power . . . so that application may very well still be sitting on a shelf in her office while the applicant is stuck in Canada, probably without even first stage approval - and this all after the officer told me she believes the couple to be genuine . . . hence the "justification" for waiting on legislation that would allow her to approve under H&C. Now, I know for a fact that this particular officer is a liar - so maybe she was just giving me a big line of "look how much power
I have" - but that alone is reason for concern.