2014 CEC Cap Concern

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Hi there, just want to ask if anyone cares to share some thoughts about the 8000 cap number.
does anyone have any idea about the total number of CEC applicants in 2013? is this new cap somehow consistent with 2013_total_applicant_number/12*8(which means from May to December).
based on the current number we can see on those spreadsheets. CIC is now processing applications from 2x July, and the cap update is already 3480, this means it will definitely fill up by the end of October or early November if the rate keeps going like this.
does anyone have different theories?

 

[yixiaop26]

But what's the problem ?

just sent it , if it is full, your application will be return soon , like in 2 months for current date.

 

[TheAwesomeMatt]

Yea, there isn't much anyone can do about the cap, just get your application complete and sent as soon as possible...

 

[aa105942]

Why do you say they are processing applications received in July? Their website shows 3480 applications so far and the last time data was updated on 2014-09-30. This means to me that they have received not even half of the number of applications that they intend to get. I have been routinely checking their website and I doubt this number will get to 8000 by January when the rules change.

 

[Conor9900]

I've also been keeping an eye on the numbers, waiting until next month before I can apply. Where did you read that they are only processing the July 22nd applications now in October?

 

[gauty9]

Guys ....this kind of question is causing some serious confusions when the present cap has reached 3480 and if this figure is updated weekley then I think this cap will take atleast DEC to fill up but I see some people saying that CIC is processing 22 JUly files presently if this is the case then this CAP is expected to fill by NOV 1 week.

But how is this theory proven is there any one who can clear the air and give some concrete answers as it will help people like me and many who are in the process of applying.

In my scenario i will be filing my application last week of OCT . After reading the above posts I am concerened. It would be great if anyone can give an insight of the real scenario.

 

[ABS_1382]

Buddy,

1st of all, no one can provide a concrete answer as no one knows who all are applying...only a small % of the people are on this forum....still if you want to do the maths here are the stats since May 2014:

Date Cap Applied Days
04/20/14 13
04/27/14 128 115 7
05/26/14 252 124 29
06/09/14 475 223 14
07/02/14 620 145 23
07/07/14 877 257 5
07/15/14 1185 308 8
07/22/14 1529 344 7
07/28/14 1747 218 6
08/12/14 2147 400 15
08/18/14 2486 339 6
08/25/14 2649 163 7
09/02/14 2,794 145 8
09/08/14 2912 118 6
09/15/14 3087 175 7
09/22/14 3342 255 7
09/30/14 3480 138 8

I will elave it to you to do the maths...but I believe we cannot predict......as even if we cans ee the number of applications they are processing in a week we cannot predict how much they would haveunprocessed as of today...we can only guess looking at the trend.....

Guys ....this kind of question is causing some serious confusions when the present cap has reached 3480 and if this figure is updated weekley then I think this cap will take atleast DEC to fill up but I see some people saying that CIC is processing 22 JUly files presently if this is the case then this CAP is expected to fill by NOV 1 week.

But how is this theory proven is there any one who can clear the air and give some concrete answers as it will help people like me and many who are in the process of applying.

In my scenario i will be filing my application last week of OCT . After reading the above posts I am concerened. It would be great if anyone can give an insight of the real scenario.

 

[Conor9900]

ABS, I assume gauty9 is more concerned, as I am, with the assertion by the original poster that CIC are only processing July applications now in October. We can all see how many they have processed on a weekly basis but we'd like to know where this poster got his information

 

[LPS]

^ Ministerial instruction 12 (http://gazette.gc.ca/rp-pr/p1/2014/2014-04-26/html/notice-avis-eng.php) describes how and when applications are included in the cap.

A maximum of 8 000 new complete applications submitted for the Canadian Experience Class will be considered for processing for the period of May 1, 2014, to April 30, 2015.

The cap is for applications 'accepted', that is, issued AORs. An AOR is an acknowledgment that the application was received, and has been checked for completeness, and has been forwarded to the visa office for further processing. This process typically takes 1½ to 2 months. So it could be that some July applicants are still waiting for theirs.

Although the page with the current numbers on it is ambiguous and uses both the terms "received" and "accepted", you can be sure that applications received in an incomplete state are not counted towards the cap.

 

[LPS]

Date Cap Applied Days
04/20/14 13
04/27/14 128 115 7
05/26/14 252 124 29

If the current cap was established on May 1, how can the counting have started in April?

 

[ABS_1382]

I agree with you man...even I noticed it today..seems like some error on my part....sorry.....

If the current cap was established on May 1, how can the counting have started in April?

 

[LPS]

^ Could be a mix of applications under the old cap (12,000 from November to April) and the new cap. But the count doesn't seem to be reset at any point.

Still - if the later stats are correct - I would estimate the true number of applications "received" (not just "accepted") is closer to 5000.

 

[___]

^ Could be a mix of applications under the old cap (12,000 from November to April) and the new cap. But the count doesn't seem to be reset at any point.

Still - if the later stats are correct - I would estimate the true number of applications "received" (not just "accepted") is closer to 5000.

Hi LPS,
yes, i would agree there could be a mix-up between the old cap and the new one.
but regarding the 5000 of your estimation, i would be very glad to hear how you estimated, care to share some thoughts?
based on the cap updates, in the last 45 days, cap increased by 165/week, while before the last 45 days, it augmented by 266/week, i think that may be the reason why getting AOR has increased from 40 days to 60+. but i can not rule out the possibility that more applications flooding in in July which also added up to the delay of getting AORs.

 

[___]

Why do you say they are processing applications received in July? Their website shows 3480 applications so far and the last time data was updated on 2014-09-30. This means to me that they have received not even half of the number of applications that they intend to get. I have been routinely checking their website and I doubt this number will get to 8000 by January when the rules change.

Hi aa105942,
the cap update you see from CIC website, as many people believe is not the number of applications received but the number of applications having received an AOR, and based on google July spreadsheet, many applicants from 22 July were still waiting for AOR before the last cap update which you see is 3480. pls correct me if i'm wrong, i will be more than happy to be proven wrong since i really hope no one will be capped out including myself.

 

[Conor9900]

Where or what is this "google July Spreadsheet"? Is this something on the CIC website or on the CANDAVISA website?