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Ray of Hope - 89th Draw

A

alexross

Hero Member
Jan 11, 2018
410
321
Calculations I have done on net new applicants entering the pool at different CRS point levels, based on the CRS pool distributions:

From oct 26th to Nov 9th (2017):
above 440: 171 per day
above 430: 239 per day
above 410: 272 per day

From Nov 9th to Nov 30th:
above 440:174 per day
above 430:213 per day
above 410:237 per day

Nov 30th to Dec 18th:
above 440:171 per day
above 430:197 per day
above 410:215 per day

Dec 18th (2017) to Jan 4th (2018)
above 440:161 per day
above 430:195 per day
above 410:211 per day

Jan 4th to Jan 18th:
above 440:163 per day
above 430:193 per day
above 410:221 per day

from Jan 18th to Feb 1st:
above 440:186 per day
above 430:216 per day
above 410:258 per day

From Feb 1st to Feb 15th:
above 440:227 per day
above 430:257 per day
above 410:278 per day

From Feb 15th to Mar 8th:
above 440:226 per day
above 430:261 per day
above 410:279 per day

From Mar 8th to Mar 20th:
above 440:181 per day
above 430:226 per day
above 410:252 per day

From Mar 20th to Apr 4th:
above 440:196 per day
above 430:216 per day
above 410:235 per day

From April 4th to April 19th
above 440:163 per day
above 430:187 per day
above 410:213 per day

For those interested in how the calculations are done, here is a sample:
For example, lets take calculation for above 440 from Dec 18th to Jan 4th:
All those with CRS points 440 and above on Jan 4th= 233+1374+1274=2881
All those with CRS points 440 and above on Dec 18th=420+1211+1260=2891
We know that the Jan 4th value is = Dec 18th value + net entrants into pool (i.e new entrants - expired entries) - ITAs from Dec 20th
2881=2891 + net entrants - 2750
2881-2891+2750=net entrants
So we have net entrants between Jan 4th and Dec 18th with crs above 440 = 2740
Therefore we have average entrants per day above 440 between Jan 4th and Dec 18th= 2740/17=161

The values listed are cumulative:
above 430=(430 to 440) + above 440.
so if you want only 430 to 440 per day you can calculate that by subtracting above 440 from above 430 value.
i.e) people entering the pool with score between 430 to 440 from feb 15th to march 8th would be 261-226=35 per day
 
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U

uthejsree

Star Member
Feb 1, 2018
75
28
Thay said:
Predictions (right ones) are made by following comparison:

(Foretasted) Number of Candidates in the pool after 2 weeks from the draw day VS 3500 Invitations to apply.

You should get your ITA, however not within next draw. My prediction is that all 431+ applicants will receive ITA by October 2018. Earlier if we get some back to back draws (1 week gap or so).
Click to expand...
Cool. Thanks for this info! Looks like it could be quite a wait for me. Hopefully it will not have to be that long :)
 
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K

Kevin Kav

Star Member
Dec 19, 2017
64
34
I need to ask question, I did complete my CIC application and I am in the pool but today when I checked my profile education signed in process and when I opened that it shows "secondary and post-secondary periods of study" what should I do now? Thanks,
 
N

nnanh

Newbie
Feb 26, 2018
3
3
alexross said:
Calculations I have done on net new applicants entering the pool at different CRS point levels, based on the CRS pool distributions:

From oct 26th to Nov 9th (2017):
above 440: 171 per day
above 430: 239 per day
above 410: 272 per day

From Nov 9th to Nov 30th:
above 440:174 per day
above 430:213 per day
above 410:237 per day

Nov 30th to Dec 18th:
above 440:171 per day
above 430:197 per day
above 410:215 per day

Dec 18th (2017) to Jan 4th (2018)
above 440:161 per day
above 430:195 per day
above 410:211 per day

Jan 4th to Jan 18th:
above 440:163 per day
above 430:193 per day
above 410:221 per day

from Jan 18th to Feb 1st:
above 440:186 per day
above 430:216 per day
above 410:258 per day

From Feb 1st to Feb 15th:
above 440:227 per day
above 430:257 per day
above 410:278 per day

From Feb 15th to Mar 8th:
above 440:226 per day
above 430:261 per day
above 410:279 per day

From Mar 8th to Mar 20th:
above 440:181 per day
above 430:226 per day
above 410:252 per day

From Mar 20th to Apr 4th:
above 440:196 per day
above 430:216 per day
above 410:235 per day

From April 4th to April 19th
above 440:163 per day
above 430:187 per day
above 410:213 per day

For those interested in how the calculations are done, here is a sample:
For example, lets take calculation for above 440 from Dec 18th to Jan 4th:
All those with CRS points 440 and above on Jan 4th= 233+1374+1274=2881
All those with CRS points 440 and above on Dec 18th=420+1211+1260=2891
We know that the Jan 4th value is = Dec 18th value + net entrants into pool (i.e new entrants - expired entries) - ITAs from Dec 20th
2881=2891 + net entrants - 2750
2881-2891+2750=net entrants
So we have net entrants between Jan 4th and Dec 18th with crs above 440 = 2740
Therefore we have average entrants per day above 440 between Jan 4th and Dec 18th= 2740/17=161

The values listed are cumulative:
above 430=(430 to 440) + above 440.
so if you want only 430 to 440 per day you can calculate that by subtracting above 440 from above 430 value.
i.e) people entering the pool with score between 430 to 440 from feb 15th to march 8th would be 261-226=35 per day
Click to expand...
Good news is that cut-off point today is at 441, so we should have cleared almost everyone 441+. Based on your calculation seems like we have 3000 new entries of 441+ every 2 weeks. On a positive note, that number should come down eventually.

Then quite certain next draw gonna be 43x. Keep up the hope guys!!
 
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A

at4446

Hero Member
Sep 24, 2016
260
107
ontario
Category........
CEC
Visa Office......
ottawa
nnanh said:
Good news is that cut-off point today is at 441, so we should have cleared almost everyone 441+. Based on your calculation seems like we have 3000 new entries of 441+ every 2 weeks. On a positive note, that number should come down eventually.

Then quite certain next draw gonna be 43x. Keep up the hope guys!!
Click to expand...
based on what you are saying, if the next draw is 3500 ITAs only 500 people from 440 will get ITA am I right?
 
N

nnanh

Newbie
Feb 26, 2018
3
3
at4446 said:
based on what you are saying, if the next draw is 3500 ITAs only 500 people from 440 will get ITA am I right?
Click to expand...
no, this means between every round (~2 weeks), there are 3000 NEW entries of those 441+ entering the pool. since today CSR is 441, we are starting the new round with almost none of those 441+ profiles left in the pool (my sincere sorry for guys that have 441 profile created after the tie-breaking date btw, but you will for sure get it in the end :) )

So if next draw is 3500 ITA, these 3000 will definitely get the ITA, but there's hope for 500 people with 43x to get the ITA too.
 
fschuenck

fschuenck

Newbie
Mar 15, 2018
4
10
alexross said:
Calculations I have done on net new applicants entering the pool at different CRS point levels, based on the CRS pool distributions:

From oct 26th to Nov 9th (2017):
above 440: 171 per day
above 430: 239 per day
above 410: 272 per day

From Nov 9th to Nov 30th:
above 440:174 per day
above 430:213 per day
above 410:237 per day

Nov 30th to Dec 18th:
above 440:171 per day
above 430:197 per day
above 410:215 per day

Dec 18th (2017) to Jan 4th (2018)
above 440:161 per day
above 430:195 per day
above 410:211 per day

Jan 4th to Jan 18th:
above 440:163 per day
above 430:193 per day
above 410:221 per day

from Jan 18th to Feb 1st:
above 440:186 per day
above 430:216 per day
above 410:258 per day

From Feb 1st to Feb 15th:
above 440:227 per day
above 430:257 per day
above 410:278 per day

From Feb 15th to Mar 8th:
above 440:226 per day
above 430:261 per day
above 410:279 per day

From Mar 8th to Mar 20th:
above 440:181 per day
above 430:226 per day
above 410:252 per day

From Mar 20th to Apr 4th:
above 440:196 per day
above 430:216 per day
above 410:235 per day

From April 4th to April 19th
above 440:163 per day
above 430:187 per day
above 410:213 per day

For those interested in how the calculations are done, here is a sample:
For example, lets take calculation for above 440 from Dec 18th to Jan 4th:
All those with CRS points 440 and above on Jan 4th= 233+1374+1274=2881
All those with CRS points 440 and above on Dec 18th=420+1211+1260=2891
We know that the Jan 4th value is = Dec 18th value + net entrants into pool (i.e new entrants - expired entries) - ITAs from Dec 20th
2881=2891 + net entrants - 2750
2881-2891+2750=net entrants
So we have net entrants between Jan 4th and Dec 18th with crs above 440 = 2740
Therefore we have average entrants per day above 440 between Jan 4th and Dec 18th= 2740/17=161

The values listed are cumulative:
above 430=(430 to 440) + above 440.
so if you want only 430 to 440 per day you can calculate that by subtracting above 440 from above 430 value.
i.e) people entering the pool with score between 430 to 440 from feb 15th to march 8th would be 261-226=35 per day
Click to expand...
I put this data in a graph to make it easier to read...



The number of new applicants raised from February to March, but it looks like they are getting down again. I hope this is a trend.
 
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A

at4446

Hero Member
Sep 24, 2016
260
107
ontario
Category........
CEC
Visa Office......
ottawa
nnanh said:
no, this means between every round (~2 weeks), there are 3000 NEW entries of those 441+ entering the pool. since today CSR is 441, we are starting the new round with almost none of those 441+ profiles left in the pool (my sincere sorry for guys that have 441 profile created after the tie-breaking date btw, but you will for sure get it in the end :) )

So if next draw is 3500 ITA, these 3000 will definitely get the ITA, but there's hope for 500 people with 43x to get the ITA too.
Click to expand...
thanx for explaining.. I am at 440 ..so there is a hope for me :)
 
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