Ray of Hope - 72nd Draw

[donald70fms]

Hi I got my ITA now (465) EE created on 29 August.. u should get urs soon.. I don't understand ur error let's hope it will be fine soon best of luck

it says ...error loading status table:502 bad gateway

 

[donald70fms]

Hi I got my ITA now (465) EE created on 29 August.. u should get urs soon.. I don't understand ur error let's hope it will be fine soon best of luck

hey also one question: does simply registering and activating your job bank profile enough to complete your application or do we have to do any other steps in the job bank profile other than this ... and does it have any impact on ITA...

 

[Karnesh]

it says ...error loading status table:502 bad gateway

it's showing error like this from yesterday.! You'll get it very soon. Best Wishes and Congratulation.

 

[trumprefugee]

I'm dropping 5 points next month and will follow you.

You're old man!

You two babies are too young to know, but you're still young. You're not old until you start losing 11 points per birthday ...

 

[trumprefugee]

Guys, call me crazy, idiot, delusional, whatever you like, I KNOW points will reach 400 soon, for sure! This period is not that CIC is doing against us, it's just that they have a lot of applications to process, they are doing it for us, our turn is around the corner! Trust me! All this waiting will pay off! Trust the process as our @astralsource and @Wandering Mind said!

@andieangel I am going to call you realistic and sane. Today's draw certainly was disappointing in terms of the number of ITAs issued which is why the score didn't drop, but you all need to remember that the government workers just got back from summer vacation and are getting back into the swing of things. They don't want to issue too many ITAs before they are ready to handle a higher workload. But they will need to ramp up in the upcoming months to start filling 2018 targets that are supposed to increase from 2017, just as last year after the summer, they kept issuing more and more ITAs per draw and averaged a draw every other week.

Ontario is even admitting that there have been holidays and they are still going through a high volume of applications:

I called them yesterday as I have crossed 60 days and they said there were holidays and there is a very high volume of applications so they asked me to wait for 2 more weeks.

http://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/threads/oinp-hcp-stream-application-submitted-in-july-2017.505290/page-101#post-6334215

Although this was OINP, they sound like American government workers as well. Here in North America, government workers clock in at 9 and out at 5, have plenty of vacation days, and especially love to take them in the summer.

So, get your documents ready to jump on the opportunity when it comes. Or, if you want to give up hope, please deactivate your EE profile and get out of the pool so that I will get my ITA sooner ...

 

[kidl920317]

I've got a feeling. CIC just wants to keep all high points for the very last quota of this year. Since no new ielts result is released during the next two weeks, there might not be a draw 2 weeks later. And after three weeks, the points will definitely be kept even higher. May anyone who's done much more researches prove me wrong?

 

[andieangel]

@andieangel I am going to call you realistic and sane. Today's draw certainly was disappointing in terms of the number of ITAs issued which is why the score didn't drop, but you all need to remember that the government workers just got back from summer vacation and are getting back into the swing of things. They don't want to issue too many ITAs before they are ready to handle a higher workload. But they will need to ramp up in the upcoming months to start filling 2018 targets that are supposed to increase from 2017, just as last year after the summer, they kept issuing more and more ITAs per draw and averaged a draw every other week.

Ontario is even admitting that there have been holidays and they are still going through a high volume of applications:



http://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/threads/oinp-hcp-stream-application-submitted-in-july-2017.505290/page-101#post-6334215

Although this was OINP, they sound like American government workers as well. Here in North America, government workers clock in at 9 and out at 5, have plenty of vacation days, and especially love to take them in the summer.

So, get your documents ready to jump on the opportunity when it comes. Or, if you want to give up hope, please deactivate your EE profile and get out of the pool so that I will get my ITA sooner ...

I agree completely! Thank you for your support!

 

[mtz]

hi every one i am new here
CRS at 427
hope the best for all

 

[trumprefugee]

Guys, here are some actual statistics on what percent of ITAs were accepted for 2015 and 2016. 85% of ITAs were accepted and 97% of complete applications were approved. I am guessing that with the much higher number of ITAs issue in 2017, these percents could be slightly lower in 2017.

Note also that 66,549 have been issued so far in 2017, and 131,394 ITAs have been issued since Express Entry was first launched in January, 2015, meaning that more ITAs have been issued this year than in both 2015 and 2016. So it is entirely reasonable that CIC has needed to take a breather, especially during the summer vacation months, to catch up with things and plan their workload. Given that the 2018 target should be going up, CIC won't be slowing down long term.

https://www.cicnews.com/2017/09/express-entry-reforms-in-2016-led-to-more-candidates-invited-based-on-human-capital-factors-099539.html

Approval rate

Interestingly, the IRCC presentation also provides information on what portion of ITAs issued end up in an application being submitted and approved.

In the first two years of Express Entry, around 47,000 applications for permanent residency were received. About 85 percent of invitations result in an application, and of the complete applications that make it to the final decision stage, the approval rate is 97 percent. Consequently, in the majority of cases the issuance of an ITA results in the invitee being approved to become a permanent resident of Canada.

 

[PixelDust]

hi every one i am new here
CRS at 427 hope the best for all

Hello , welcome! You are new and at 427 and most likely to get your ITA soon.

 

[vensak]

They need to bring 72k of applicants + app. 50k PNP applicants. Let us assume 1/3 of PNP streams goes through EE. That is 90k applicants.
But attention. Applicants do not equal applications. It so happens, that in these numbers they do count your spouse and children. Hence, the average application has app. 2 applicants (some people are alone, but some have spouse and some even have children).
Now there were 67k ITA this year. 85% of them resulted in application - 57k applications.
Next number is missing - how many application were cancelled (cancellation means, that some document was missing in your application). There is only % of rejected applications - 3 %.
Would there be no cancellation, then 55300 application would have been successful. But that is not the case

I remember some brief statistics from 2015 where app. 80% of CEC and 95% of PNP applications made it through. (sorry I do not remember the source anymore).
Because of lacking more information, I will just generalize and say, that app. 85 to 87% of all application would make i through.
That would give somewhere between 48500 to 49k applications to make it through.
Now if you use app. family size ratio on those application (estimating 2 people under 1 application), you will get 97k immigrants.
That alone is already higher than the yearly target for EE entry plus part of PNP.

So what does it point out.
1. It seems that somewhere last September they were almost done with old applications (before EE), so they needed fresh income to deal with.
2. EE system as new was only set up on full capacity according to the early cancellation and rejection data.
3. This turned out to be overheating the system. Because if the above approval rate will continue without any additional increase of yearly quotas, the amount of acceptable applications will be achieved within first 8 months.
4. It also means, that under current final acceptance rate, they will only need to issue around 65k ITA per year. Which equals 2700 ITA every 2 weeks (and no additional draws in between).
5. would the rejection rate of ITA go further down and would the application cancellation rate go down as well, then even less ITA might be needed in the future (maybe down to 2500 ITA).
6. Also, ITA, that are issued now, are already from the next year quota

Best advice is stop warming the bench and see what you can do to increase your points.
Get another education degree
Go to study in Canada
Improve your IELTS
and learn French
Go after points of your spouse (education and language).
and of course check which provincial nomination might be for you
good luck

 

[jon-son]

They need to bring 72k of applicants + app. 50k PNP applicants. Let us assume 1/3 of PNP streams goes through EE. That is 90k applicants.
But attention. Applicants do not equal applications. It so happens, that in these numbers they do count your spouse and children. Hence, the average application has app. 2 applicants (some people are alone, but some have spouse and some even have children).
Now there were 67k ITA this year. 85% of them resulted in application - 57k applications.
Next number is missing - how many application were cancelled (cancellation means, that some document was missing in your application). There is only % of rejected applications - 3 %.
Would there be no cancellation, then 55300 application would have been successful. But that is not the case

I remember some brief statistics from 2015 where app. 80% of CEC and 95% of PNP applications made it through. (sorry I do not remember the source anymore).
Because of lacking more information, I will just generalize and say, that app. 85 to 87% of all application would make i through.
That would give somewhere between 48500 to 49k applications to make it through.
Now if you use app. family size ratio on those application (estimating 2 people under 1 application), you will get 97k immigrants.
That alone is already higher than the yearly target for EE entry plus part of PNP.

So what does it point out.
1. It seems that somewhere last September they were almost done with old applications (before EE), so they needed fresh income to deal with.
2. EE system as new was only set up on full capacity according to the early cancellation and rejection data.
3. This turned out to be overheating the system. Because if the above approval rate will continue without any additional increase of yearly quotas, the amount of acceptable applications will be achieved within first 8 months.
4. It also means, that under current final acceptance rate, they will only need to issue around 65k ITA per year. Which equals 2700 ITA every 2 weeks (and no additional draws in between).
5. would the rejection rate of ITA go further down and would the application cancellation rate go down as well, then even less ITA might be needed in the future (maybe down to 2500 ITA).
6. Also, ITA, that are issued now, are already from the next year quota

Best advice is stop warming the bench and see what you can do to increase your points.
Get another education degree
Go to study in Canada
Improve your IELTS
and learn French
Go after points of your spouse (education and language).
and of course check which provincial nomination might be for you
good luck

Interesting read, thanks. So where is Ontario PNP in this picture? Are they, and especially HCP, done for the year?

 

[PixelDust]

Whats the definition of year in the yearly intake ?
1 Jan-31 Dec?
I remember a senior member, if memory serves me right @andieangel mentioned something about Oct being the final month for 2017 target, may be after that ITAs will go up , from Nov onwards( for year 2018)
Sorry it might be a hallucination as then i was 'corona-ting' but i do remember this October-Year relation mentioned somewhere.

 

[vensak]

Whats the definition of year in the yearly intake ?
1 Jan-31 Dec?
I remember a senior member, if memory serves me right @andieangel mentioned something about Oct being the final month for 2017 target, may be after that ITAs will go up , from Nov onwards( for year 2018)
Sorry it might be a hallucination as then i was 'corona-ting' but i do remember this October-Year relation mentioned somewhere.

In the system that would be repeating similar amount each year, it is rather irrelevant if it is from 1.1 to 31.12 or 1.7 to 30.6.
In a long term you need to keep app. monthly ratio (amount of ITA, applications and PPR).

Officially they see the yearly quota from 1.7 to 30.6. next year. And the ultimate measurement is on landed immigrants. (that is why it is from mid of the year). The estimation is, that those that are sending their applications now will be landing somewhere around May / June next year. (there will be few early ones, but most will wait their 5-6 months to get PPR and another 3 months to plan landing).
But the problem is, that would the amount of ITA from the first half of this year be kept alive, you would get too many landings in 2018.
So the only way to keep it is either to increase the quotas or to increase rejection rate (and this will rather go down, as people learn more about the new system).

On the other hand count with more competition in the future. Why? simply because the earth population still grows and if you would assume, that the same % of people (for example 1 of each 100) would be interested in Canada, then the total amount of potential applicants would grow.
So unless there will be growing quota, competition will be more fierce.

 

[Fishal2017]

“There is neither happiness nor misery in the world; there is only the comparison of one state with another, nothing more. He who has felt the deepest grief is best able to experience supreme happiness. We must have felt what it is to die, Morrel, that we may appreciate the enjoyments of living.

Live, then, and be happy, beloved children of my heart, and never forget that until the day when God shall deign to reveal the future to man, all human wisdom is summed up in these two words, -- `Wait and hope.'

Edmond Dantes, Count of Monte Cristo.”