Ray of Hope - 71st Draw!

[andieangel]

Yes...
if I'm filing eAPR today,it is ideal that PCC should have been taken "not before" 15th March or so...( technically,a pcc taken after feb26th could be used as it will still be not older than six months)

Congratulations @lino82! Good luck! Keep us posted!

 

[iamxty]

Sure..but only if you would have given relevant answers

All answers given by @lino82 are relevant. To summarize:

• Primary NOC is to determine your FSW eligibility. It must be one year continuous work in the last 5 years. For your case, you can use either NOC.
• You need to provide reference letter for each work that you enter under Work History.
• You will only get points for max 3 years in your CRS, but 6 years for FSW points. Your CRS points will be the same even if you do not include the 1 year work experience, however, for FSW eligibility, you will only get 13 points for 5 years work experience and 15 points for 6 years.

So are we expecting the cheque in Lino's name? We definitely need that for our grand Yukon party

 

[PixelDust]

I am now at 421 , what are my chances?

 

[lino82]

Congratulations @lino82! Good luck! Keep us posted!

......

it was a reply to question about validity of pcc ..both u & papa pessa missed 'if' the sentence began with ...
won't I update u all before I do eAPR ? still waiting few more days for my Qatar pcc

 

[iamxty]

......

it was a reply to question about validity of pcc ..both u & papa pessa missed 'if' the sentence began with ...
won't I update u all before I do eAPR ? still waiting few more days for my Qatar pcc

Lol. Next time, do not use your case as an example.

Will we have the same AOR date? Ten more days for my SG PCC too.

 

[Aypn]

I am now at 421 , what are my chances?

I am also at 421. We will see next few rounds. I am really confused, but if there are draws with more than 3500 consistently or back to back draws, then we should have a chance this year.

 

[lino82]

I am now at 421 , what are my chances?

I have a background in stock market & in stocks the entire game is dependent on forseeing the future price of a share / commodity ...and generally 2 types of anslysis are used namely fundamental analysis and technical analysis .
Fundamental analysis looks at the inherent strength of the company by looking at sales & profitability growth rates & other factors of the business environment like cost of capital,competition and various ratios like price to earnings and many more.
It requires in depth study of the whole business dynamics & deep understanding of company's fundamentals.

Technical analysis completely ignores any of the above and simply looks at the past share price movement data to forecast the future prices.
So people look at either one of the way to buy/sell....it is not unlikely that a share that may be overpriced by fundamental analysis,and thus a sell recommendation is a buy recommended stock in technical analysis purely on price trend.
----
the fundamental reason why the cut off should come down is that Canada needs lot of fsw immigrants & the supply is surely short vs demand....and ppl with400+ is not abundant in supply & like billHyte explained the lower ita is merely because of the resource constraint at cic which is being addressed by PMs orders recently. Once the no of ITAs increase even by 10-20% per draw,we will see a faster decline with only 50000 ppl totally in the pool against year on year target of 300000 landed immigrants (of which a major feeder is fsw economic class EE )target by govt.
Going purely technically,the share price, that is the cut off,was in a downward trend from highs of 600s last year and was steadily coming down and hit the ever lowest 413,when some external factors ( a long delay in June & July on account of system & policy updates) disrupted the trend and helped the price to trace back a portion of the downfall that had happened...the retracement took it to a recent high of 449 and then tried to test the high again but could only go upto 441 & couldn't sustain those high price levels in subsequent draws despite increased demand from increased rate of new entrants into the pool...it slowly is showing getting back into resuming the original downward trend...unless we see strong points that will reverse a trend,ie. a reason which will help the price to break the resistance point of 449 and start an upward trend,the price will continue to fall and I give my recommendation as below.
CRS : current price 434 recommendation : sell with short term target of 400 ( 3-6months )
with a long term target of 380 (1 year)
supported by the ongoing downward trend & the fundamental reasons explained in first part
---
yes,I'm not much busy these days...

 

[lino82]

Lol. Next time, do not use your case as an example.

Will we have the same AOR date? Ten more days for my SG PCC too.

hope so..,
we all share lot in common and an AOR also is welcome

 

[tjsecondtry]

I have a background in stock market & in stocks the entire game is dependent on forseeing the future price of a share / commodity ...and generally 2 types of anslysis are used namely fundamental analysis and technical analysis .
Fundamental analysis looks at the inherent strength of the company by looking at sales & profitability growth rates & other factors of the business environment like cost of capital,competition and various ratios like price to earnings and many more.
It requires in depth study of the whole business dynamics & deep understanding of company's fundamentals.

Technical analysis completely ignores any of the above and simply looks at the past share price movement data to forecast the future prices.
So people look at either one of the way to buy/sell....it is not unlikely that a share that may be overpriced by fundamental analysis,and thus a sell recommendation is a buy recommended stock in technical analysis purely on price trend.
----
the fundamental reason why the cut off should come down is that Canada needs lot of fsw immigrants & the supply is surely short vs demand....and ppl with400+ is not abundant in supply & like billHyte explained the lower ita is merely because of the resource constraint at cic which is being addressed by PMs orders recently. Once the no of ITAs increase even by 10-20% per draw,we will see a faster decline with only 50000 ppl totally in the pool against year on year target of 300000 landed immigrants (of which a major feeder is fsw economic class EE )target by govt.
Going purely technically,the share price that is the cut off was in a downward trend from highs of 600s last year and was steadily coming down and hit the ever lowest 413,when some external factors ( a long delay in June & July on account of system & policy updates) disrupted the trend and helped the price to trace back a portion of the downfall that had happened...the retracement took it to a recent high of 449 and then tried to test the high again but could only go upto 441 & couldn't sustain those high price levels in subsequent draws despite increased demand from increased rate of new entrants into the pool...it slowly is showing getting back into resuming the original downward trend...if anyone sees strong points that will reverse a trend,ie. a reason which will help the price to break the resistance point of 449 and start an upward trend,the price will continue to fall and I give my recommendation as below.
CRS : current price 434 recommendation : sell with short term target of 400 ( 3-6months )
with a long term target of 380 (1 year)
supported by the ongoing downward trend & the fundamental reasons explained in first part
---
yes,I'm not much busy these days...

LMAO. And from your lips to god's ears.

We spent the weekend getting documents ready even though we are currently no where near close. However, should there be another ITC week, we will be ready.

We are prepping to head to Toronto in January for school. My hubby is seriously job hunting. Nothing is certain, but it's all an adventure. Probably the worst part about all this will be telling our parents we will be gone by January.

 

[lino82]

n00b question, but what is the Yukon Party?

hang around...Yukon will call you .....you may have to stay optimistic in hardest of times and see the light at the end of the tunnel than just the darkness around...Yukon is about catching the wonderful northern light in the dark with like minded friends ..

proving ur wit and humour,and defence of the ray of hope when under attack will get you there faster
---
welcome @Biryani...you may learn to cook it 'least spicy' without losing the taste......may b we can have some steaming hot lovely basmti biryani with all our friends at Yukon ...

 

[lino82]

LMAO. And from your lips to god's ears.

We spent the weekend getting documents ready even though we are currently no where near close. However, should there be another ITC week, we will be ready.

We are prepping to head to Toronto in January for school. My hubby is seriously job hunting. Nothing is certain, but it's all an adventure. Probably the worst part about all this will be telling our parents we will be gone by January.

yeah it's true about me too...I haven't told my parents that it could happen soon...because I didn't want them to share my disappointment in case it didn't work out...they just know that I'm doing some paperwork for Canada...but going by bill's post,I could be gone as soon as December ...but they'all will be happy for me as it would save me out of the mess I'm at
--
and I shall come back and stay with them for couple of months each year until I'm able to sponsor them there

 

[Aypn]

Range * Increase per day
601-1200 * 13.7972027972
451-600 * 57.2587412587
441-450 * 16.848951049
431-440 * 26.7895104895
421-430 * 31.5678321678
411-420 * 33.2272727273
401-410 * 8.7342657343
Delta Inc * 70.6202797203 - Number which is unaccounted which exists between profile data provided date and the draw date.
** These numbers are derived based on last six months draws.
- If the next draw is 13 Aug, the score will be 430/429/428
- If we are fortunate and have a draw on 30 Aug, the score will be 427,426,425

Hope that we have back to back draw or the draw count to be 3500+ consistently for the CRS to go down

 

[srvsh.pawar]

Thanks mate... That helped as a clarification... And yes I read the "if case".... Being a software consultant that's the first thing we notice.....
I will apply for PCC for me and my family.... That should be fine I think...

I don't know if you have any feedback to this...
My wife has her passport from a different address than mine... Would that create any issue for PCC ?
I am planning to get PCC for her from her Location and for me from mine location... It's infact adjacent cities with different passport offices.... @lino82

Yes...
if I'm filing eAPR today,it is ideal that PCC should have been taken "not before" 15th March or so...( technically,a pcc taken after feb26th could be used as it will still be not older than six months)

 

[Lala1234]

It is a long wait...sometimes depressing...this thread is a real hope....i m at 425...hope to make it soon....

Does anyone have any idea about Ontario accepting provincial nominee applications any time soon ....

 

[srvsh.pawar]

Me too at 421... And with the analysis given by lino82, it seems few more draws with the downward trend....
It may try to hold at some support points most likely I have seen at 441 and 433... But the next draw will give a fair idea about how it behaves once it breaks support points.... The fall is of approximately 8-10 points as next immediate support... May be lino82 can help with candlestick pattern