I'm providing this for info for others as I looked at the tracker data for 2019. I was thinking of doing some more complicated data analysis but after looking at the data there, decided against it (described below why). I hope it's helpful.
All I took for this was month of submission and number of months to receipt of PPR. The way to read this chart is that it is number of months since submission as of January 15, 2020. The months number corresponds to month of submission in reverse order (therefore December is one month, January is 12 months, and all in between, counting backwards from December).
The percent figure refers to the number of applications that have proceeded to PPR.
What does this tell us? I have three main conclusions:
1) About one-half of the files get to PPR at approximately six months. This is basically the 'median' applicant.
2) As many as perhaps one-quarter get to PPR in about four months, so a lot of files are moving forward in months three to six.
3) Approximately 80% get to PPR stage by about 12 months. Or, about one in every five applications gets delayed beyond a year. I have no idea how long things take after the one year mark.
Now: this does NOT mean that you have a 50-50 chance of getting approved in six months. It is not a random process; files are sent to more intensive processing and checking (including background and security) for reasons. I'm providing this breakdown because it may help get a sense of what would be fast/slow compared to the median. (A perfectly honest applicant would probably have a good idea if their file is 'complex', has red flags, or other factors that might require more checking, but most of us find it hard to be perfectly honest about ourselves).
And: I don't think 'average' figures as reported in the tracker are very meaningful. That's not a criticism, I just think the info above is useful (or I hope so).
I'm less comfortable about making other generalizations, but also about two-thirds of applications get to PPR in about 9-10 months. There are 'blips' in the data like January 19 figures being worse than February; I have no info to explain this or other small blips.
Some brief notes:
1) This is ONLY based upon the tracker data which may not be representative in any way and very different from 'all applicants'. I've made a whole bunch of assumptions here I'm not going to defend, like the processing of applications didn't change during the year, every month is representative, etc. If you don't like the simplifying assumptions I made, the tracker spreadsheets are there to play with.
2) I decided to look at PPR completion rates first and foremost. Why? For several reasons, mainly that it is one of the most important steps, seems to be consistently reported by most tracker participants, and (from glancing at) the subsequent steps such as receiving the passport etc seem to usually be small waiting periods and completion rates not noticeably different. Also, many tracker participants don't seem to receive AOR2.
Warning: please don't jump to rapid conclusions about what's happening to your file, whose files are getting treated faster than others, etc. Especially don't conclude that country trends tht you might get impressions about from the tracker are accurate - we do not know whether forum participants here are representative of 'average' family applicants, and almost certainly they are not (English language a big factor).
Anyway, hope this is useful, comments welcome, but keep in mind I'm not a tracker guru; any mistakes in analysis are mine, but I'm not going to be able to spend a lot of time re-doing analysis or charts or defending what the data and this simple analysis says.
All I took for this was month of submission and number of months to receipt of PPR. The way to read this chart is that it is number of months since submission as of January 15, 2020. The months number corresponds to month of submission in reverse order (therefore December is one month, January is 12 months, and all in between, counting backwards from December).
The percent figure refers to the number of applications that have proceeded to PPR.
What does this tell us? I have three main conclusions:
1) About one-half of the files get to PPR at approximately six months. This is basically the 'median' applicant.
2) As many as perhaps one-quarter get to PPR in about four months, so a lot of files are moving forward in months three to six.
3) Approximately 80% get to PPR stage by about 12 months. Or, about one in every five applications gets delayed beyond a year. I have no idea how long things take after the one year mark.
Now: this does NOT mean that you have a 50-50 chance of getting approved in six months. It is not a random process; files are sent to more intensive processing and checking (including background and security) for reasons. I'm providing this breakdown because it may help get a sense of what would be fast/slow compared to the median. (A perfectly honest applicant would probably have a good idea if their file is 'complex', has red flags, or other factors that might require more checking, but most of us find it hard to be perfectly honest about ourselves).
And: I don't think 'average' figures as reported in the tracker are very meaningful. That's not a criticism, I just think the info above is useful (or I hope so).
I'm less comfortable about making other generalizations, but also about two-thirds of applications get to PPR in about 9-10 months. There are 'blips' in the data like January 19 figures being worse than February; I have no info to explain this or other small blips.
Some brief notes:
1) This is ONLY based upon the tracker data which may not be representative in any way and very different from 'all applicants'. I've made a whole bunch of assumptions here I'm not going to defend, like the processing of applications didn't change during the year, every month is representative, etc. If you don't like the simplifying assumptions I made, the tracker spreadsheets are there to play with.
2) I decided to look at PPR completion rates first and foremost. Why? For several reasons, mainly that it is one of the most important steps, seems to be consistently reported by most tracker participants, and (from glancing at) the subsequent steps such as receiving the passport etc seem to usually be small waiting periods and completion rates not noticeably different. Also, many tracker participants don't seem to receive AOR2.
Warning: please don't jump to rapid conclusions about what's happening to your file, whose files are getting treated faster than others, etc. Especially don't conclude that country trends tht you might get impressions about from the tracker are accurate - we do not know whether forum participants here are representative of 'average' family applicants, and almost certainly they are not (English language a big factor).
Anyway, hope this is useful, comments welcome, but keep in mind I'm not a tracker guru; any mistakes in analysis are mine, but I'm not going to be able to spend a lot of time re-doing analysis or charts or defending what the data and this simple analysis says.
