The reason for 3 draws in January is because ？

[TheMaze]

Dear friend I'm not excited at all! I'm worried because I'm sitting @ 450. If cic keeps 2 draws per month then I have no choice but to apply oinp.

If I were to make a guess, solely based on past experience, you will probably get an ITA at some point in 2016 with a score of 450. However, if you're in a hurry, take the PT from OINP. If your score falls even one point (due to age) you're going to need the OINP nomination, at least based on past experience.

Conversely, if you can improve your English scores and get up to 455, I would expect to get an ITA within 45 days after that.

 

[quicksilver6]

If I were to make a guess, solely based on past experience, you will probably get an ITA at some point in 2016 with a score of 450. However, if you're in a hurry, take the PT from OINP. If your score falls even one point (due to age) you're going to need the OINP nomination, at least based on past experience.

Conversely, if you can improve your English scores and get up to 455, I would expect to get an ITA within 45 days after that.

Not going to lose points anytime soon, but...too tried to wait........

 

[Kumarp]

Agree with the advice that one must try everything possible to increase their points but this is an incorrect statement. The cutoff is a direct fallout of the number of draws in a month and number of ITAs granted per draw.

Would you mind explaining that logic to us please? Cause either I am blind to some obvious correlation you see between cutoff and number of draws in a month and number of ITAs or just that you have some brilliant analogy behind it.... Last year I see there were only 2 months September and October when the score went down to 450, both months had only 2 draws and both draws gave out ITAs to 1500+ applicants. I can understand the correlation between number of ITAs and the cutoff score, but I don't see much going between number of draws in a month and cutoff score.

 

[Kumarp]

@quicksilver6, I really wish the cutoff score goes down pretty soon, so that all of us here get an ITA. But, my suggestion would still be to do something while waiting to increase your score. There are many Pro users like Asivad here who can help you with ideas on increasing your score, do use them to the fullest. Good luck!!

 

[Asivad Anac]

Would you mind explaining that logic to us please? Cause either I am blind to some obvious correlation you see between cutoff and number of draws in a month and number of ITAs or just that you have some brilliant analogy behind it.... Last year I see there were only 2 months September and October when the score went down to 450, both months had only 2 draws and both draws gave out ITAs to 1500+ applicants. I can understand the correlation between number of ITAs and the cutoff score, but I don't see much going between number of draws in a month and cutoff score.

The number of draws/month (frequency) and number of ITAs/draw (volume) collectively determine the cutoff of a particular draw. IRCC has the flexibility of playing around with either or both of those criteria to 'artificially' keep the cutoff pegged at a level of their choosing. Throughout 2015, IRCC kept the draw cutoff at 450 or higher by manipulating both frequency and volume leading to 7/23 draws having a cutoff between 450 and 460. There is nothing fancy about 450 except that IRCC randomly chose that as the 'floor' for 2015 and stuck with it.

18th Sep and 2nd Oct had the cutoff at 450. 8th Sep had the cutoff at 459 while 23rd Oct saw the cutoff shoot up to 489. The reason for lower cutoffs from mid Aug till early Oct was that the pool was thinning down (with regular draws) and PNs hadn't kicked in yet. As soon as the PNs kicked in from Oct, the cutoff consistently stayed beyond 460 till IRCC did a back-to-back draw on 13th Jan '16.

The logic is straightforward - higher the frequency and/or volume, lower the cutoff.

 

[Kumarp]

The number of draws/month (frequency) and number of ITAs/draw (volume) collectively determine the cutoff of a particular draw. IRCC has the flexibility of playing around with either or both of those criteria to 'artificially' keep the cutoff pegged at a level of their choosing. Throughout 2015, IRCC kept the draw cutoff at 450 or higher by manipulating both frequency and volume leading to 7/23 draws having a cutoff between 450 and 460. There is nothing fancy about 450 except that IRCC randomly chose that as the 'floor' for 2015 and stuck with it.

18th Sep and 2nd Oct had the cutoff at 450. 8th Sep had the cutoff at 459 while 23rd Oct saw the cutoff shoot up to 489. The reason for lower cutoffs from mid Aug till early Oct was that the pool was thinning down (with regular draws) and PNs hadn't kicked in yet. As soon as the PNs kicked in from Oct, the cutoff consistently stayed beyond 460 till IRCC did a back-to-back draw on 13th Jan '16.

The logic is straightforward - higher the frequency and/or volume, lower the cutoff.

Again, this is totally wrong in various ways. While the explanation of 'frequency', 'volume' and other jargon you have used and its correlation are pretty good and meaningful, you seem to forget the fact that all of that depends upon what IRCC keeps as the 'floor' for 2016. Are you sure that they are going to stick to 450 points as their baseline cutoff and go up? I am pretty sure nobody can swear that, thats going to stay the same and that is why we call it a 'random' floor.

You cannot determine the future of EE draws based on just a year's worth of data, especially when this is a totally new scheme. Also, remember IRCC still has the power and flexibility to play around with these values, change the rules, raise / lower the floor or do whatever they feel right.

I see that you are a senior member here and I respect all the help that you've been doing to everyone here in the forums, but I also request not to come up with some random theories and disappoint certain members. Why I say this because, I have seen members coming up with their own version of theories and some people do believe them and have waited for several months with score between 430 - 450 thinking they will get an ITA soon.

My best suggestion to people at any score would be to try their best and raise their score as much as possible rather than waiting up for an ITA.

I pray for each and everyone here to get ITAs and come to Canada 8) ;D

 

[ibejiopad]

Again, this is totally wrong in various ways. While the explanation of 'frequency', 'volume' and other jargon you have used and its correlation are pretty good and meaningful, you seem to forget the fact that all of that depends upon what IRCC keeps as the 'floor' for 2016. Are you sure that they are going to stick to 450 points as their baseline cutoff and go up? I am pretty sure nobody can swear that, thats going to stay the same and that is why we call it a 'random' floor.

You cannot determine the future of EE draws based on just a year's worth of data, especially when this is a totally new scheme. Also, remember IRCC still has the power and flexibility to play around with these values, change the rules, raise / lower the floor or do whatever they feel right.

I see that you are a senior member here and I respect all the help that you've been doing to everyone here in the forums, but I also request not to come up with some random theories and disappoint certain members. Why I say this because, I have seen members coming up with their own version of theories and some people do believe them and have waited for several months with score between 430 - 450 thinking they will get an ITA soon.

My best suggestion to people at any score would be to try their best and raise their score as much as possible rather than waiting up for an ITA.

I pray for each and everyone here to get ITAs and come to Canada 8) ;D

And what's the difference in your post and Asivad's post?

 

[shashidhar_sm]

Again, this is totally wrong in various ways. While the explanation of 'frequency', 'volume' and other jargon you have used and its correlation are pretty good and meaningful, you seem to forget the fact that all of that depends upon what IRCC keeps as the 'floor' for 2016. Are you sure that they are going to stick to 450 points as their baseline cutoff and go up? I am pretty sure nobody can swear that, thats going to stay the same and that is why we call it a 'random' floor.

You cannot determine the future of EE draws based on just a year's worth of data, especially when this is a totally new scheme. Also, remember IRCC still has the power and flexibility to play around with these values, change the rules, raise / lower the floor or do whatever they feel right.

I see that you are a senior member here and I respect all the help that you've been doing to everyone here in the forums, but I also request not to come up with some random theories and disappoint certain members. Why I say this because, I have seen members coming up with their own version of theories and some people do believe them and have waited for several months with score between 430 - 450 thinking they will get an ITA soon.

My best suggestion to people at any score would be to try their best and raise their score as much as possible rather than waiting up for an ITA.

I pray for each and everyone here to get ITAs and come to Canada 8) ;D

I don't see how you interpreted his statement as being a random theory. If you actually read through his other posts, you will realize that he has never posted anything to suggest even remotely that the scores would come down - all he says is if IRCC decides to increase the number of draws or the number of people invited per draw, the scores are bound to drop (not by much). I can't refute this logic.

And again, your statements seem to rephrase his post - Asivad said

IRCC has the flexibility of playing around with either or both of those criteria to 'artificially' keep the cutoff pegged at a level of their choosing.

and you say

Also, remember IRCC still has the power and flexibility to play around with these values, change the rules, raise / lower the floor or do whatever they feel right

All said and done, I suggest folks keep their hopes high, but get realistic - the score is never gonna drop by much, and folks like me who are hovering at 420s have to think of other means (read nomination, IELTS and LMIA).

 

[Kumarp]

@shashidhar_sm I never said that Asivad was suggesting that the points may go down or his theory was random. If you read my post right, I clearly agree with his theory that all of it depends on frequency, volume , and cutoff. Actually thats what I said in my previous comments too. But there were other community members (some are just quietly watching) coming up with random theories based on their own terrible interpretations.

But my only concern is that all these theories will be shattered if IRCC decided to pick up a new random floor and change a bunch of rules and bring in new strategies. in such case the theory becomes random and obsolete.

All I want to say is that, lets just not jump into conclusions and draw borders with just one year worth of data. Remember this is a fairly new system and is filled with so many unknowns, so lets just wait and watch the trend to validate our theories. Am sure Asivad himself would agree with the fact that there is no enough data to verify what he just said. What happened last year should be considered as an odd sample and not a known 'trend'.

 

[MZASAM]

Guys,

It is IRCC that sets the agenda, policies, procedure ..IRCC is not seeking any suggestions from forum members, applicants..

The PR application system is functional ( still evolving) and IRCC has set business rules

If IRCC have the resources, capacity, and their policies allow more draws, more ITA's they will implement.

Presently based on the historical data, they are happy with 2 draws, average 3000 invitations

No sense in postulating theories, debating, agreeing, disagreeing

Hope I am right

 

[Asivad Anac]

Am sure Asivad himself would agree with the fact that there is no enough data to verify what he just said.

I haven't said anything which in unsupported by data and/or logic. If number of draws (frequency) and/or ITAs/draw (volume) go up, cutoff will fall. Cutoff will fall sharply if IRCC randomly increases frequency and/or volume by a factor of 5 (10 draws/month) or 10 (15,000 ITAs/draw) respectively overnight (there is no reason they would do that). Else cutoff will not fall sharply because there are a lot of candidates just between 440 and 449. Even if the cutoff 'floor' falls below 450 in the near future, it won't be in free fall. It might hover around 445 or 440 or wherever IRCC 'artificially' decides to peg the 'floor' next. I've consistently maintained that it is unlikely that the cutoff will ever fall below 430, if it gets to that level in the first place (of course this statement assumes that Canada will keep admitting roughly the same number of skilled foreign worker immigrants in the near future as they have done in the recent past). You could accuse my posts of being overcautious, if anything, not of being frivolous and casual with data.

What happened last year should be considered as an odd sample and not a known 'trend'.

Of course. 2015 was the first year for EE, there was considerable backlog from earlier years, not all PNs were completely functional, Canadian organizations were wary of LMIAs... A lot of reasons why it was not a 'trend'. But this was as close to a trend as trends go - you could almost bet that the cutoff won't go blow 450, you could bet on there being 2 draws each month (instead of 1 or 4, on average) and you could bet on IRCC sending out ~1500 ITAs/draw (instead of ~500 or ~3000, that is).