The Harsh Reality About Express Entry - Let's Debate Here

[scanada4]

Overall Express Entry seems to be a better system for Canada. It selects those candidates with the highest CRS score, which theoretically will impact their economy best. This is better than taking first in line. After a year, when things settle out, candidates will have a pretty good idea what score range is needed.

The current number of LMIA for permanent jobs is around 1200/year, they expect this to increase, but I don't expect it to increase much.

What is Canada targeting, I think around 120k for 2015 for Express Entry, so perhaps 60,000 applicants drawn in 2015 (assume 2 per application)?

So every 2 weeks they need to draw around 3500 applicants. (fudge factor for expected non-compliant or no submitted applications)

What is the estimated EE pool size? Perhaps 120k of serious applicants that would represent this forum EE spreadsheet?

Draw might reach median by end of the year. Here are my very very rough swag predictions... someone could create a little calculator that let's you enter your assumptions. So many variables.

Also I expect some rules may focus certain NOC's in latter half of 2015 if certain areas needed are under represented. For example not select 2173, 2171, 2174 in the last 3 months of 2015. Or select top 100 applicants in certain specific NOC's. This is all very doable within this new system.

My CRS swag for end of each month.
Jan 928
Feb 475
March 458
April 449
May 432
June 425
July 413
Aug 405
Sept 395
Oct 386
Nov 380
Then will level out and bounce around 380+/15 through next year in 2016.

--
SharpC

This analysis seems helpful. Thanks!

I think everybody will have a much better overview and better predictions even after the first draw.

 

[good_choice]

It was quite obvious that Express Entry was going to be the most difficult to get. I am so glad I applied at the last minute for the FSW2014 as if I predicted this. 800+ for ITA? Wow!

I still think they are unaware of PGWP and LMIA, someone needs to address this via their twitter account or send an email. I don't think they are aware that PGWP are not claiming points for job offer.

 

[doubleym]

It was quite obvious that Express Entry was going to be the most difficult to get. I am so glad I applied at the last minute for the FSW2014 as if I predicted this. 800+ for ITA? Wow!

I still think they are unaware of PGWP and LMIA, someone needs to address this via their twitter account or send an email. I don't think they are aware that PGWP are not claiming points for job offer.

That is by design, additional points are only for LMIA.

 

[good_choice]

That is by design, additional points are only for LMIA.

Hmm. Okay.

But is it not worth a try addressing this with them? Even if the point for PGWP will be lower than that of the work permits with LMIA. I mean some reputable working class professionals have reputable jobs and reasonable amount of work experience in Canada, not having LMIA shouldn't stand in their way.

 

[A.B.123]

I have been working with a pgwp for a year and missed the chance to apply under CEC just by a week. Bad luck

I called CIC to ask a question

Q: what does my employer put in "anticipated start date" as I already have been working with him.
A: "Sir, this is a million dollar question."

I couldn't stop myself from laughing
Like seriously, answer my frikkin question and don't tell how much worth my question is

I'm in the same boat, buddy. I missed by a week too cause I was waiting for the police clearance certificate Now, I'm trying to figure out if I actually can improve my PR situation before starting looking for a new job in my homecountry. I wonder if I should make an attempt to to talk my boss into getting LMIA or if I should try and get PNP (or whatever it is, I can't remember).

 

[umairq00]

Hi A.B.123 and others,

Thank you for your precious input. I am pretty much the same situation - with about 406 points applying under CEC, along with open work permit with no LMIA related job offer. Ben working here in Canada since 1.5 years now. I believe CIC will not only check the highest numbers of points earned, but rather filter out the applicants who applied under different streams - for example: FSWP, CEC etc.

We should definitely wait for the next move made by CIC in the upcoming month. Applying under Provincial Nominee Program to get extra 600 points doesn't seem to be good idea at this point of time. Let's see what happens. Please keep inputting your valuable comments everyone.

Regards,

 

[EEKnowledge]

Hi A.B.123 and others,

Thank you for your precious input. I am pretty much the same situation - with about 406 points applying under CEC, along with open work permit with no LMIA related job offer. Ben working here in Canada since 1.5 years now. I believe CIC will not only check the highest numbers of points earned, but rather filter out the applicants who applied under different streams - for example: FSWP, CEC etc.

We should definitely wait for the next move made by CIC in the upcoming month. Applying under Provincial Nominee Program to get extra 600 points doesn't seem to be good idea at this point of time. Let's see what happens. Please keep inputting your valuable comments everyone.

Regards,

Yup, they said that they are flexible and respond accordingly. If they see that CEC applications are low for that period; they might issue all CEC applicants ITAs irrespective of the cut-off score.

 

[tdot_guy]

So the LAND OF OPPORTUNITIES is only for 779 people, does make sense to me? 779 a month? cuz if they increase the number thee score will go down and we will all have a better cchance

 

[mf4361]

So the LAND OF OPPORTUNITIES is only for 779 people, does make sense to me? 779 a month? cuz if they increase the number thee score will go down and we will all have a better cchance

They said 15-25 draws for 2015. The most optimistic estimate is roughly one draw every 2 weeks.

But still, the number is a far cry from their target (~130k from EE) they set earlier. Hopefully this is temporary.

 

[tdot_guy]

Seriously disappointing, people from outside Canada are disappointed when most people within Canada did not get it and we have been here for years...whatever it is test or trial it will tarnish Canada's image int he world, global media was carrying this news . 779 ITA is probably good for a country of the size of Luxembourg.

They better have some sensible new soon else the government will look really stupid not just abroad but even at home

 

[CEC2EE]

Overall Express Entry seems to be a better system for Canada. It selects those candidates with the highest CRS score, which theoretically will impact their economy best. This is better than taking first in line. After a year, when things settle out, candidates will have a pretty good idea what score range is needed.

The current number of LMIA for permanent jobs is around 1200/year, they expect this to increase, but I don't expect it to increase much.

What is Canada targeting, I think around 120k for 2015 for Express Entry, so perhaps 60,000 applicants drawn in 2015 (assume 2 per application)?

So every 2 weeks they need to draw around 3500 applicants. (fudge factor for expected non-compliant or no submitted applications)

What is the estimated EE pool size? Perhaps 120k of serious applicants that would represent this forum EE spreadsheet?

Draw might reach median by end of the year. Here are my very very rough swag predictions... someone could create a little calculator that let's you enter your assumptions. So many variables.

Also I expect some rules may focus certain NOC's in latter half of 2015 if certain areas needed are under represented. For example not select 2173, 2171, 2174 in the last 3 months of 2015. Or select top 100 applicants in certain specific NOC's. This is all very doable within this new system.

My CRS swag for end of each month.
Jan 928
Feb 475
March 458
April 449
May 432
June 425
July 413
Aug 405
Sept 395
Oct 386
Nov 380
Then will level out and bounce around 380+/15 through next year in 2016.

--
SharpC

Oh wow,
This is a close estimation. That's wait for the second draw. If you got that right too(I really hope so), you should be hired as a consultant.

 

[purplesnow]

Overall Express Entry seems to be a better system for Canada. It selects those candidates with the highest CRS score, which theoretically will impact their economy best. This is better than taking first in line. After a year, when things settle out, candidates will have a pretty good idea what score range is needed.

The current number of LMIA for permanent jobs is around 1200/year, they expect this to increase, but I don't expect it to increase much.

What is Canada targeting, I think around 120k for 2015 for Express Entry, so perhaps 60,000 applicants drawn in 2015 (assume 2 per application)?

So every 2 weeks they need to draw around 3500 applicants. (fudge factor for expected non-compliant or no submitted applications)

What is the estimated EE pool size? Perhaps 120k of serious applicants that would represent this forum EE spreadsheet?

Draw might reach median by end of the year. Here are my very very rough swag predictions... someone could create a little calculator that let's you enter your assumptions. So many variables.

Also I expect some rules may focus certain NOC's in latter half of 2015 if certain areas needed are under represented. For example not select 2173, 2171, 2174 in the last 3 months of 2015. Or select top 100 applicants in certain specific NOC's. This is all very doable within this new system.

My CRS swag for end of each month.
Jan 928
Feb 475
March 458
April 449
May 432
June 425
July 413
Aug 405
Sept 395
Oct 386
Nov 380
Then will level out and bounce around 380+/15 through next year in 2016.

--
SharpC

Interesting, you weren't far off with your January prediction. I think February will be high too, 700+, just because there are people who had LMIA's and didn't get pulled out of the pool in January but I'd love if it came down a bit more. Also, they said somewhere 15-25 draws in the year so I think there'll be more draws than you predicted and the point drop won't be as drastic as you have it.

 

[BankingExpressE]

I will advise that we international students who are either working or on a PGWP should write to CIC and have them clarify the job offer criteria so as to have a clearer understanding. Who knows it might steer them in the right direction as to what to do with us.

I will be very straight forward with everyone. I think this Express Entry is not favorable at all.
This is because, this January, they will draw the candidates with high scores .i.e. PNP and Arranged job offer and by the time you think you will make the draw the next month, another set of candidates with new received PNP and Arranged job offer would have applied or updated their profile and hence again the highest is drawn and the cycle continues like that leaving candidates without PNP and Arranged job offer still hanging. The funniest thing is that some candidates might remain on that pool forever.

Let's be realistic, do you really think Canadian employers will employ a lot of candidates from the pool and go through the stress of proving they can't get a Canadian to do the job and also the LMIA process? Yes, it might be possible but it won't be as rosy as we think. There are so many qualified educated immigrants who already have their PR who have been job hunting that they can take instead. Canadian employers can always get employment agencies to scout for local talents for them rather than going through the immigration job search when they can't guaranty if you can even do the job, is a mere profile enough to convince them to offer you a job? The chance is very slim, what are the odds?

I feel the people that applied for FSW 2014 and co did a very wise thing. This Express Entry is a big gamble, and I think the old system is far better.
What do you think?

I agree. What upsets me the most is the lack of credit us PGWP holders get for our current, past and hopefully future contributions to the Canadian economy. I honestly can't see how some of the jobs people have listed for those who have received ITAs so far are better for society compared to what a lot the PGWP holders are currently doing. Some might say that, if what we do is so important, then just get a LMIA. To that I say, good luck getting a large corporation to go through the hassle.

For those who have LMIA, is there a length of employment tied to your assessment? If not and you are terminated, I don't see how it can be more beneficial for Canada to have a bunch of unemployed sub-900 CRS people in the country, compared to a CEC candidate in the high 400s with great language skills, Canadian education, network, etc.

Just my two cents.

 

[mf4361]

For those who have LMIA, is there a length of employment tied to your assessment? If not and you are terminated, I don't see how it can be more beneficial for Canada to have a bunch of sub-900 CRS people in the country, compared to a CEC candidate in the high 400s with great language skills, Canadian education, network, etc.

Just my two cents.

Part of LMIA requirement for PR is permanent and indefinite contract. So unless the employee quits or got laid off, s/he will be employed.

But I see your point, one of gets a job doesn't mean it's always more beneficial to the economy. Compare a 886 CRS points (meaning only 286 on core human capital) to many 400+ points applicants who are likely more educated, better language and younger and capable of much higher skilled jobs and professions.

I think CIC is overestimated the willingness of employers to go through LMIA process, despite making it for free, especially those already working in Canada.

Even more than that, this result tells employers in Canada: Don't hire young professionals coming out of school and train them along, go through LMIA and hire an experienced pro overseas

 

[pziegler1986]

Part of LMIA requirement for PR is permanent and indefinite contract. So unless the employee quits or got laid off, s/he will be employed.

But I see your point, one of gets a job doesn't mean it's always more beneficial to the economy. Compare a 886 CRS points (meaning only 286 on core human capital) to many 400+ points applicants who are likely more educated, better language and younger and capable of much higher skilled jobs and professions.

I think CIC is overestimated the willingness of employers to go through LMIA process, despite making it for free, especially those already working in Canada.

Even more than that, this result tells employers in Canada: Don't hire young professionals coming out of school and train them along, go through LMIA and hire an experienced pro overseas

CIC are gravely mistaken if they anticipate more companies to apply for LMIAs, especially in professional industries such as Accounting/Finance/Law/Banking/Engineering - I would be staggered even to find one +ve LMIA issued for any of those professions...maybe perhaps in Egineering, if you are one of the world's leading Engineers needed on a large scale project.

Would love to know how any PGWP/LMIA exempt OWP holder would fare through the LMIA process - lucky to have less than 1% successful applications IMO. That's assuming that their company is willing to go through the process.

My main issue is the disproportion in points vs actual Canadian work experience (maximum of 80 points) vs LMIA Job Offer (600 points)...it's totally out of touch with reality. I have been here for almost two years and Canadian work experience is valued above all else - you could have 10 PhD's and 20 years foreign experience in the most reputable of companies but it almost won't matter once you're here.