My PR is "active", since 25 May '15. I returned to the UK for work/personal obligations a few weeks later. Now looking to return to Canada 'permanently' on 1st Feb 2019.
The card took 9 months to arrive and so my PRC has an expiry date 16th Feb 2021. It was fwd to me by family as I had returned to the UK by then. Hence me thinking I had 2 years left on it.
I have been outside Canada in excess of 1095 days since initial arrival at PoE, but the validity on the card would allow me to still meet the 720 days as a PR before card expiry.
If I arrive into Canadian airport as a PR on 1st Feb 2019, I understand the officer may advise that my obligations have not been met at and I could be returned? I take it that is in their hands, even though the PRC still has plenty validity on it. Is that a fair understanding?
Thanks
As otherwise noted, the date of expiry on a PR card has NO bearing on calculating compliance with the PR Residency Obligation. Which it appears you already knew and understood.
Thus, you are currently in breach of the PR RO, given your absence from Canada for more than 1095 days since you landed. Which it appears you also already understood.
Any PR arriving at a PoE applying for entry into Canada (application made by mere act of arriving at the PoE) who is in breach of the PR RO IS AT RISK to be examined regarding RO compliance and being in breach is AT RISK for being Reported (a 44(1) Report of Inadmissibility for Non-compliance with the RO) and issued a Departure Order. HOWEVER, even if you are examined and reported, and issued a Departure Order, you are still entitled to enter Canada. You will not be turned back or returned. If this happens, if you are reported and issued a Departure or Removal Order, you will have time to make an appeal and you can stay in Canada in the meantime. How you approach things in this event is a very, very PERSONAL decision.
That said, the extent of the RISK varies a great deal, depending on many factors. It is so difficult as to be near impossible for anyone here to reliably assess the RISKs quantitatively. Especially so since there are indeed so many individual factors which can have a big yet variable impact on how things actually go. For example, however, by being abroad more than three years since you were last in Canada (if this is the case), that makes it more obvious you are in breach and thus increases the risk of being examined and reported. In contrast, by presenting a valid PR card that is your first PR card and it being valid for another two years, that probably lowers the risk of being examined regarding the RO upon arrival. There are, nonetheless, many other factors which can influence how things actually go for YOU individually.
All that said, probably a good idea to be prepared to explain all the circumstances which have led you to staying abroad as long as you have. Just the facts. The truth. Whether your explanation will suffice to persuade a PoE officer to be lenient, whether pursuant to an informal or formal consideration of H&C reasons for allowing you to keep your status, is again way too difficult to forecast to know ahead of time. But certainly worth making the effort to honestly explain your circumstances, including your ties to Canada (such as family now settled and living in Canada).