Ray of hope for Candidates without Canadian Edu., Experience, PNP and LMIA

[nabilkhan]

Please share your thoughts (hope for candidates specially without Canadian Education, Experience, PNP and Job offer .....

All analysis are based on 2015 data..

in 2015 out of total 31063 invited candidates around 14500 (18570-3960) had job offer.... and out of 14500 only around 3400 candidate had core CRS score above 400....it means 11100 (around 34% of total invitation issued) candidates were with core CRS less than 400....suppose in 2016 situation remains same (atleast in percentage) this gap 34% (11000 out of 31063) will give opportunity to students to get selected...

Now in 2015 out of total 31063 invitation issued 22% (around 4600) were the candidates who ever had study permit.....in worst case scenario lets suppose all possessed more than one year Canadian education. and for sure most of them had job offer and PNP also....

And now from around 60000 profile of uninvited candidates only 13% possessed study permit ever as of 3rd Jan 2016....(and again lets suppose all possessed more than one year Canadian education) which mean they are not more than 8000 and again suppose all of them get invitation to fill the gap of 11100 with remaining around 3100 to be filled by candidate without Canadian education, experience, PNP and job offer..

Again assuming 2016 numbers are same...around 3100 (in other words 10% of total invitations) more candidate (without Canadian education, experience, PNP and job offer.) will get the chance to get invitation in up coming month (to be precise 12 months). and ofcourse they will belong to CRS range between 400-470..

 

[astralsource]

We mostly agree with this, but we will have to wait a while for cut off score to drop. Maybe until the end of 2017. even for those around 400-420, who knows.

 

[satya10]

The cutoff CRS will eventually drop post 2016. Keep up the hopes

 

[nabilkhan]

I guess we will see drop in score very soon...may be in with 3-4 draws.... because almost half of potential invitation (with LMIA) over the year will get effected by new rules...this will change the total scenario and composition of the candidates in the list....

this will definitely give a quick boost to number of candidate getting invitations without Canadian education and experience..

 

[nabilkhan]

people with 400-450 will get invitation within 6 months.... ;D hope for the best.....

 

[jianxia15]

This is an interesting thread ;D

 

[vabs200]

It all depends on the number of ITAs being issued. If they keep the number of ITAs at 2500 consistently then all calculations suggest that the CRS score will surely drop to the 450 level within the first quarter of 2017. Post that, we can expect the scores to go below 450 provided that there are no other changes to the current scoring system. After all, people scoring above 400 CRS points all possess skills that the Canadian immigration system desires!!

 

[Wolverine17]

Will have a good idea after the next draw

 

[nabilkhan]

It all depends on the number of ITAs being issued. If they keep the number of ITAs at 2500 consistently then all calculations suggest that the CRS score will surely drop to the 450 level within the first quarter of 2017. Post that, we can expect the scores to go below 450 provided that there are no other changes to the current scoring system. After all, people scoring above 400 CRS points all possess skills that the Canadian immigration system desires!!

100% correct....

actual potential only resides in human capital point...

it is also depends on total number of ITAs being issued in next 6 months....I guess and from the perspective of what we have seen in 2015 and 2016..it will stay around 30000 +-2000 in 2017 also which mean 15000-16000 on average in six months...and with lot of points slashing LMIA points....advantage will remains with candidate with good core CRS...

 

[prads_s]

IRCC issued a statement on 22Nov "Over a period of time, because of changes on 19th, cut off will come down eventually".

Source: David Cohen, webinar.

Overall I feel changes on 19th would help normal FSW candidates in coming future.

 

[nabilkhan]

IRCC issued a statement on 22Nov "Over a period of time, because of changes on 19th, cut off will come down eventually".

Source: David Cohen, webinar.

Overall I feel changes on 19th would help normal FSW candidates in coming future.

this is actually we (people outside Canada) want..

 

[limestone]

We mostly agree with this, but we will have to wait a while for cut off score to drop. Maybe until the end of 2017. even for those around 400-420, who knows.

Hi Astral, maybe it is due punctuation you used, I had confusion and I have to ask: Do you mean, even 400-420 points (although has lower chance) will get a chance until end of 2017? Why 420? any significance?

 

[bhavcaluk]

A inlsnd student will get following additional points
40 points for one year Canadian experience
50 points for a job offer ,if he has one year experience and a job offer for one year.
15 points for Canadaian education

He gets 105 additional points .
He is far ahead of ouland applicants.
The scheme has been formulated to help students to get PR.

For a 450 points cut off he just needs 345 as per old system or we can say a outland getting 345 ,a inland will get 450.
So the Canadian students shall benefit a lot

Now a day 80000 students are going to Canada. Four years ago there were 50000

 

[fatani]

Please share your thoughts (hope for candidates specially without Canadian Education, Experience, PNP and Job offer .....

All analysis are based on 2015 data..

in 2015 out of total 31063 invited candidates around 14500 (18570-3960) had job offer.... and out of 14500 only around 3400 candidate had core CRS score above 400....it means 11100 (around 34% of total invitation issued) candidates were with core CRS less than 400....suppose in 2016 situation remains same (atleast in percentage) this gap 34% (11000 out of 31063) will give opportunity to students to get selected...

Now in 2015 out of total 31063 invitation issued 22% (around 4600) were the candidates who ever had study permit.....in worst case scenario lets suppose all possessed more than one year Canadian education. and for sure most of them had job offer and PNP also....

And now from around 60000 profile of uninvited candidates only 13% possessed study permit ever as of 3rd Jan 2016....(and again lets suppose all possessed more than one year Canadian education) which mean they are not more than 8000 and again suppose all of them get invitation to fill the gap of 11100 with remaining around 3100 to be filled by candidate without Canadian education, experience, PNP and job offer..

Again assuming 2016 numbers are same...around 3100 (in other words 10% of total invitations) more candidate (without Canadian education, experience, PNP and job offer.) will get the chance to get invitation in up coming month (to be precise 12 months). and ofcourse they will belong to CRS range between 400-470..

I have said 1000 times in this forum

https://c.ymcdn.com/sites/www.cerc.ca/resource/resmgr/government_relations/Express_entry_national_stake.pdf

Look at this report it is Refocusing Express Entry report of May 2016, in this it is clearly stated that in 1.5 yrs of EE the biggest flaw of EE is that the scores has not gone below 450. Stakeholders of EE are concerned that scores are not going down and it is clearly stated that "THIS IS THE POINT TO IMPROVE ON". Further in this report it is stated that by cutting the points of LMIAs It will make huge "DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON SCORES".

All these above mentioned things are not said by me it is in the report for everyone to see IRCC also understand the fact that scores are not going down. If IRCC in this report says that scores are not dropping it clearly means they have made these changes in the view of getting the scores down.

These changes are made in a view to get the scores below 450. Because a FSW person with 420-425 is also qualified and have CLB 9 English and bachelors degree and is also very good for Canada they knew lots of these kind of applicants are not getting in because of those thousands of LMIAs holders with 300 points on Human capital core. They want these 420-425 people as well.

And mind you we all just speculate here but IRCC have all the data in front of them i.e. how many applicants are in the pool , how many are sitting in 400-470 range, what impact it will make to the pool if we cut 550 points of LMIA, How many additional points we should give to canadian students so the deserving ones can get ITA and non deserving still had to improve, and what impact will it make if we award this number of bonus points

They should have studied all these things before making changes and their goal is to get the scores down so they should have made these changes considering their goal. Thats why they did not awarded 100-200 points for canadian studies because they want to bring the scores down.

 

[nabilkhan]

I think after 48th draw things are not look for good for FSW candidates... next draw only Candidates with Canadian education will get selected.