Ray of Hope - 96th Draw

[FairOntario]

If OINP HCP begins to issue invites anytime from now, I believe they'll start considering profiles opened latest March, 2018, starting from where they left off, i.e. last issued invites.

Sadly, PNP invitation trends appear to be veering away from the traditional express entry pool towards french speakers only (some got invites from OINP as recently as last week), people with education/family relation ties to Canada, and some very selective/subjective in demand occupation/NOCs. Let's wish OINP HCP does not go this route soon too. Hopefully, this is not what they meant by digging deep into the pool for talents.

 

[Mayur_M]

Draw size increase to 4000 won't cut it, please we need 4250 NOW!

whats your CRS?

 

[gauravmlal]

441 cut off for 25th July draw, tie break: 31st Dec, 2017.

Possible implications

* All profiles on 441 opened between 15/11/17 to 31/12/17 have been cleared.

* All these candidates either had there profiles recreated, or were able to increase their CRS/scores subsequently. Otherwise they should all have been cleared on the 23rd May 2018 draw.

Possible Implications:

* 25/07/18 draw could left over about 240+ profiles on 441, i.e. only 50+ profiles - opened 15/11/17 to 31/12/17 - on 441 got ITA.

Challenges

* If as much as 50+ candidates were able to improve their scores to 441 from 15/11/17 to 31/12/17, how many would've done the same from 31st Dec, 2017 to 23rd May, 2018/till the next draw?

* Except IRCC's tie break benchmark is not backed by a definitive formulae, implying it's flexible, then maybe some profiles on 441 opened/improved (31/12/17 to 23/05/18) could have received ITA from the last draw (25/07/18).

Please additional debate/input is required here.

* Assuming the CIC tiebreak benchmark is fixed, then we will have to factor in 250+ profiles on 441 created/improved from 31/12/17 to 23/05/18, and an additional 100+ profiles on 441 created/improved from 23/05/18 to 25/07/18, even till next draw.

Implications for 08/08/18 draw (if no 3 week delay)

* If the draw size increases to 4000,

Conservatively: the cut off will be 441 (5 Profiles left) /440 (90 profiles on 440 receiving ITA).

Optimistically: cut off 440, with 255 profiles receiving ITAs on 440.

* If the draw size remains 3750

Conservatively: the cut off could remain 441, with 255 left over profiles on 441.

Optimistically: the cut off will be 440, with 5 profiles on 440 receiving ITA.

Please note: This is the worst case scenario. In 4 days time, we should be able to generate far more accurate projections.

@gauravmlal, @at4446, @bimale4bipeople, @AlfredoInans, @navinball have already provided interesting insight into the 31st Dec, 2017 tie break issue, however more input and debate required pending the next 4 day trend. Without definitively resolving the 31st December 17 tie break issue, the margin of our projections is subjected to either the negative/positive influence of +/- 370 profiles (440 to 451).

250 profiles improving to 441 is way too much optimism. For a bachelors degree with other factors taken as optimum, 441 means CLB 10 and it is not a cake walk. For Masters , it usually goes beyond 441 after IELTS results. Even when you take recursive IELTS exam takers , 23rd May would have cleared many from that Jan to May window.
So I would estimate the number on 441 to be 100 for upgrades till May 23 and 150 more profiles as new entries. Some 30-40 people improving between May 23 and till date . So a total of around 280-290. We have already accounted for that many people in our projections except for 30-40 upgrade entries which again is an optimistic number. If we have 4000 than it should make deep inroads into 440 club , unless new entries beyond 441 grow surprisingly.

 

[Midnight Blessing]

Yes! It is true! I got a message this morning too with NOI from Ontario (French Speaking Skilled Worker). I selected French as first language and English as second. My NOC is 1112.

They could be reissuing under HCP pretty soon too. Best of lucks to all of us!

Congrats @SumH12 I knew that you would get it. It is because of your timely question which got you the answer of recreating your profile as you the main applicant. Glad I could help Now best of luck on your file submission and quick nomination.......

 

[ShahidWS]

So seems like OINP guys are slowly waking up. Hearing news of NOI's for French speaking stream and some maintenance updates on their website.

I really hope they start issuing NOI's for the HCP stream as soon as possible as that seems like that last option now. I am currently at 435 and going to lose the dreaded 5 points for Birthday in exactly a month.

Also if OINP start issuing NOI's, i really believe this will be a road-map for the next 6 months or so and it will give us an idea into what CIC is planning and what might be the CRS ranges going forward.

I had this theory about 3 months back that i had posted in the 90th draw. So far nothing has changed to prove it wrong and i stick by it.

Here's the link if anyone is interested.
https://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/threads/ray-of-hope-90th-draw.559057/page-18#post-6925384

 

[Superman89]

Is there any province in Canada with NOC Code 4031 in their occupation in demand list.

What was your Score?
Thanks CSR

 

[peacefulwarrior]

Any chance of a 1-week draw on 1st August?

 

[aahaanbajaj]

Hi guys

Needed suggestions on few of my concerns , I have 29 months of experience working as Sales Manager with a multinational, NOC 0601 dates 30/04/2012 - 29/09/2014

After that I started my business. As self employed business owner, It got registered on 15/10/2016. However while filling up the EE profile, I have claimed points for this business from 01/11/2016 - 31/03/2018.

Although the business is still running, but as my requirement was to show (36-29) 7 months of experience, I have not provided whole self employed period in EE profile history. So is that okay?

This self employed experience falls under noc 0621, however in EE profile I have put 0601, That I am planning to change to 0621 in eAPR. So these are minute errors, shall I decline my ITA?

 

[FairOntario]

250 profiles improving to 441 is way too much optimism. For a bachelors degree with other factors taken as optimum, 441 means CLB 10 and it is not a cake walk. For Masters , it usually goes beyond 441 after IELTS results. Even when you take recursive IELTS exam takers , 23rd May would have cleared many from that Jan to May window.
So I would estimate the number on 441 to be 100 for upgrades till May 23 and 150 more profiles as new entries. Some 30-40 people improving between May 23 and till date . So a total of around 280-290. We have already accounted for that many people in our projections except for 30-40 upgrade entries which again is an optimistic number. If we have 4000 than it should make deep inroads into 440 club , unless new entries beyond 441 grow surprisingly.

Thank you for this. So, what if the draw size remains 3750 for some strange reason?

 

[gauravmlal]

Any chance of a 1-week draw on 1st August?

One week draws is one thing IRCC has avoided this year and I am sure they will keep the pattern going. Other than that draw on 1st would mean 3 draw dates in August , which would obviously mean a skip on any one. So I strongly believe they won't disturb the biweekly pattern unless the more than 2 draw dates in a month force them.
Lets hope we have a draw on 8th August with a size more than 3750 because this year had been full or uncertainties and surprises by IRCC.

 

[safarizone]

Thank you for this. So, what if the draw size remains 3750 for some strange reason?

What would be strange about keeping it at 3750? They have already increased the draw size significantly from previous years and it feels like the applicants are getting more and more demanding.

 

[peacefulwarrior]

One week draws is one thing IRCC has avoided this year and I am sure they will keep the pattern going. Other than that draw on 1st would mean 3 draw dates in August , which would obviously mean a skip on any one. So I strongly believe they won't disturb the biweekly pattern unless the more than 2 draw dates in a month force them.
Lets hope we have a draw on 8th August with a size more than 3750 because this year had been full or uncertainties and surprises by IRCC.

Draw on 1st would clear many under 440 profiles. This is the only way people stuck in 435-440 stand a chance this year.

They have done it multiple times last year. I won't be surprised if they do it again

 

[gauravmlal]

Thank you for this. So, what if the draw size remains 3750 for some strange reason?

Well in that case we should still enter 440 club with cutoff around mid Feb -Mar first week 2018 . If we take error margins of 150 more entries for some unknown reasons which may be an unaccounted surge or left over IELTS effect from 13th and 20th July , then also we should hit 440 with mid to last of december cutoff .
But lets hope that strange reason never pops up and IRCC continues an increment of 250 on a 5th draw bring cheers and hopes to all of us.
Cheers!

 

[ashokacca]

Well in that case we should still enter 440 club with cutoff around mid Feb -Mar first week 2018 . If we take error margins of 150 more entries for some unknown reasons which may be an unaccounted surge or left over IELTS effect from 13th and 20th July , then also we should hit 440 with mid to last of december cutoff .
But lets hope that strange reason never pops up and IRCC continues an increment of 250 on a 5th draw bring cheers and hopes to all of us.
Cheers!

I am at 440.. profile created on June 24... What are my chances, please?

 

[gauravmlal]

Draw on 1st would clear many under 440 profiles. This is the only way people stuck in 435-440 stand a chance this year.

They have done it multiple times last year. I won't be surprised if they do it again

I wish what all you just said turns out to be true as I will be one of the beneficiaries, but if you see the statistics , the whole draw process is streamlined as if , they had learned from every action they took last year. We have not seen any back to back draws so far this year except for quicker draws after draw skips. IRCC seems to be in no hurry to sweep the pool as it is being replenished at a faster rate than last year. We must anticipate larger draw size due to increased annual targets and a little slower first half ITA , given they are way behind the annual targets if they wish to meet the numbers of last year. But I don't see any reason for them to conduct back to back draws to meet their targets as reducing cutoff score drastically won't be their major concern when they can still do it with relatively flatter CRS curve and biweekly larger draws.
But of course , I myself want them to do back to back draws and keep it to 3750 so that even with stable size they still meet their targets. But this wish seems less likely to be fulfilled