Ray of Hope - 90th Draw

[special3220]

Very good try but, you have ommited some important facts:
1. EE is not just for FSW or CEC candidates but also for part of PNP immigrants.
2. It could be estimated that app 25% of all PNP went through EE (that is app. 13k people).
3. So in total app. 88k immigrants.
4. This year it looks like 1/3 of all PNP will use EE.
5. That together with higher quota will mean app. 100k people going through this system.
6. Lower amount of ITA Between September and February, does point to the overheating effect.
7. Overheating happened in the first half of 2017, where 3/4 of all ITA were issued. As a result people with lower score got in (albeit at cost of others during the second half year).
8. It looks that they learned they lessons and they do not go crazy anymore. Which gives them higher points candidates (and same strategy can be seen in Ontario PNP).
9. System gained lot of notoriety (that one is obvious given amount of active profiles).
10. Another side effect of the notoriety is the decreasing amount of declined ITA (which is the biggest portion of all wasted ITA).
11. Notoriety is also causing increase amount of new applicants per day (and you can see that when you compare statistic data of how many people in each point range did enter every day - just checking them for the last 6 months will give away increasing trend).
12. App. 500 ITA each draw are just for PNP applicants. So there are only 3k ITA per draw left. Which give according to your calculation 42k ITA for people without PNP.
13. Since moth PNP applicants are people with a bit lower score that are catching up with PNP, that would point to following conclustion:
- anybody below 430 - increase your score or forget about Canada
- 431-435 - only a big irregularity in the system would help you. but that one is not probable, so work on your score.
435-440 - you have chance, but time is against you, as the balance will go slowly up. You might profit from occasional swings because of low IELTS release or unexpected draw.
441-450 - grab you ITA while you still can, next year it might be too late
451+ a current safe zone for ITA

Thanks for the input. I am still new to this and opinions from the experts are always helpful in trying to understand the system as a whole.

1. I understand that some part of PNP are always part of the EE, I did not count them out but considered them in the total ITA count. According to my calculation currently in average 1500 profile are entering above 440+ every week. Around 220 of them are from PNP. This figure varies according to the release of nomination from various provinces. So the flood of PNP are considered. So if the ITA remain in the 3500-4000 region the score will drop slowly but it will drop. For the score to remain above 440 something weird like the last week need to happen (1500 profile above 440 in just 5 days.)

2. I also agree with you with the fact that CIC now are more smart and has figured out way to properly utilized the express entry to get the maximum befit out of it for themselves. Sharper decrease is very unlikely and they will maintain this systematic way of issuing ITAS for the rest of the year. Therefore overheating issues like last year will not happen.

 

[special3220]

Pretty solid analysis!

Though I have a gut feel that CIC might increase the number of ITAs issued to avoid having 1 week gap draws, for example, they would have something like below to meet the remaining 60K ITAs (in case that's the target):
5 draws with 3500 ITAs
5 draws with 4000 ITAs
5 draws with 4500 ITAs

This would cause the cut offs to not fall below a certain level (somewhere in the 430s if the intake is similar or higher than what is happening now).

Yes they will probably try to avoid back to back draws. last year they did 5 of them and also there were 5 draws with more than 2 weeks gap, so they cancelled out each other. But this year I think mostly bi-weekly draw is gonna happen. However, having said that, 4500 is just a too high number. They may also avoid issuing that high no of ITAs in a single draw which will end up forcing them towards some back to back in order to fulfill their target.

 

[Sandeep198511]

Pretty solid analysis!

Though I have a gut feel that CIC might increase the number of ITAs issued to avoid having 1 week gap draws, for example, they would have something like below to meet the remaining 60K ITAs (in case that's the target):
5 draws with 3500 ITAs
5 draws with 4000 ITAs
5 draws with 4500 ITAs

This would cause the cut offs to not fall below a certain level (somewhere in the 430s if the intake is similar or higher than what is happening now).

Well said for IRCC goal this year is no back to back draws, because of this we saw draw even on Monday...they did not issue 1 week draw even after 3 week gap...increased ITA is the solution for them, maybe 1 draw within this year can be back to back but not more than that....

 

[NOMAD2017]

Guys I have given up trying to predict the trend. All I can say it that the scores will stay stable as CIC has learned from its mistakes and grown smarter over the time. High influx of new entrants is unlikely to let the cut-off score plunge like last year. Everyone under 440, please try to improve your score or accept provincial nomination whenever you are sent one. If the cut-off doesn't come down to 440 in next draw, I'll retake IELTS. However, the stability of the score is a new ray of hope for us now. Scores might remain in a similar range by the time some of us receive our new IELTS scores, or new diploma/degree in coming 3 to 6 months.
All the best.
Take care.
see you on 16th or 23rd

 

[Sandeep198511]

Pretty solid analysis!

Though I have a gut feel that CIC might increase the number of ITAs issued to avoid having 1 week gap draws, for example, they would have something like below to meet the remaining 60K ITAs (in case that's the target):
5 draws with 3500 ITAs
5 draws with 4000 ITAs
5 draws with 4500 ITAs

This would cause the cut offs to not fall below a certain level (somewhere in the 430s if the intake is similar or higher than what is happening now).

Another observation CRS range 401 -410 not a single applicant added....

 

[Polarbear1]

Almost same situation as you, in late 30s, have a max projected CRS of 433 (assuming spouse can get CLB9 on IELTS on 2nd June). I already have CLB10 and Master's, so NO chance of increasing anything.
From the calculation Alexross has provided in this thread, I took the scenario 220 profiles/day above 440 and 30/day for 431-440. With 7200 profiles already stuck between 431-440 and assuming equal distribution of people across 431-440, it will take 13 draws (6.5 months) for cut-off to come down to 433 assuming 3500 size draws every 2 weeks. Only hope is if they start increasing the draw size or have more frequent draws!

In 6 months...we lose 6 points due to' not so happy birthday '

 

[Falcon2]

50k for a WES profile? Man that is crazy.
I agree. Just go to them and make some noise and ask them to change the email id back, that's the least they can do after taking so much money.

Sure Aarti. Will send you in sometime .

can u mail me tooo.... I have the Ielts tomorrow

 

[cic86]

Guys I have given up trying to predict the trend. All I can say it that the scores will stay stable as CIC has learned from its mistakes and grown smarter over the time. High influx of new entrants is unlikely to let the cut-off score plunge like last year. Everyone under 440, please try to improve your score or accept provincial nomination whenever you are sent one. If the cut-off doesn't come down to 440 in next draw, I'll retake IELTS. However, the stability of the score is a new ray of hope for us now. Scores might remain in a similar range by the time some of us receive our new IELTS scores, or new diploma/degree in coming 3 to 6 months.
All the best.
Take care.
see you on 16th or 23rd

Bro don't say that! Keep up your hopes, you have CLB 9, I'm sure you'll get an ITA in the next few draws! Goodluck!

 

[Reddiered07]

Analysis and long term prediction for the remaining 2018.


Seeing the yesterday’s draw, I started wondering what is waiting for us in the upcoming months. So I sat with the available data and tried to make some sense of it.

My analysis is based on last year’s express entry draw data and I am comparing it with this year. We know last year the total target for express entry was 71700. For that CIC ended up issuing 84685 no of ITAs. Now I am aware of the argument that many people are making here which is, the target is for total admission and each ITA issued may result in 2-4 or more immigrant considering the accompanying spouse and dependents. Now I can understand that statement but I would like to see it this way, “The year 2017 also had similar target but still they ended up issuing around 13000 more ITAS then the target.” Now maybe in 2017 there were many rejection. Maybe around 50% of ITAs resulted in rejection! But I find that hard to believe.

That is why I think it is safe to assume for this year’s target 74900 which is 4% more than last year will also result in around 4% more issuance of ITAs. So we can set the total ITA target (I am aware that there there no term such as ITA target) for 2018 in the region of 88000.

So we can set the possible ITA no for 2018 as 88000

Now let’s compare what happened in 2017 and this year up until now. Last year up until April there were 10 draws and total 35973 no of ITAs were issued. Compared to that this year only 8 draws happened and total no of ITAS issued were 24500. So we can see that CIC is not keeping pace with previous years trend.

Now let us consider there are no back to back draw or even if there is one, there maybe 3 or 4 weeks delay so for our calculation we will say there will be 2 draws each month. So 1 in may and 14 more in the last seven months, we have 15 draws left. And total ITAs to be issued in this 15 draws will be 88000-3500-24500 = 60000. So to get to that no, each remaining draw will have to issue 60000/15 = 4000 ITAs.

Now that is encouraging if you ask me. Up until now 9 draws happened in 2018 so far and ITAs issued were 28000. So Maybe it is unlikely for CIC to issued 60k iTAs in just 15 draws, that then opens the door for more than 15 no of draws which only means back to back draw or 3-4 draw per month.


Now the bottom line is, I firmly belive this year nof od ITAS issued will be similar to lasy year if not more. In that case CIC will have to do more draws in order to catch up. Last year maximum no of ITAs were issued in the first half of the year and this year they will space it out throughout the year. That means there will be no sudden spike in the cut off.

· So Sorry to those who are in 410-425 range, I feel they are very unlikely to get a ITA.

· For people in the range of 425-430 you have a decent chance.

· 430+ guys have a good chance.

· for people above 435 it is just a matter of time.


Now let us tackle the issue of high scoring entry in the profile. As per my calculation the no of 440+ entry per week varies from 1200-1750. Now if we consider an average of 1500 profile per week above 440 entering the pool, then in the remaining 30 or so weeks of the year we will have 45000 no of people entering or updating their profile and enter with 440+ score in the pool. So still then according to our calculation of 60000 more ITAS to be issued this year, we have 15000 space left for existing profile in the pool. That surely will bring down score in the 425-430 region.

Now I would like to say again the total ITAS to be issued this year is not certain. It maybe more than 88000 or less than that. But even if the no of ITAS is same like last year , there are so many more ITAs to be issued in the remaining months of this year which means score are not going to stay in the 440 region for much longer because CIC will not be able to continue in the pattern that they set up since the start of 2018. Because that will mean they miss their target which I think is not gonna happen because everyone seemed so excited with their 3 year plan that was announced at the end of last year.

So guys, don’t lose hope. Things gonna change soon, I am pretty certain about it, just mark my words,


Prediction for coming months.

· Two-three more draw to happen with 3500 ITAs, one possible back to back draws within next 4 weeks.

· 3750-4000 ITAs per draw will be issued after that .

· After that no of ITAs will start to decrease and will hover around 3000-3500 region.


** If you guys dont agree with the analysis, please share your reason and view and we can discuss the differences.

This is not only a very logical analysis but also a true 'ray of hope' post! Thanks a lot for your valuable time. Assuming the average new entrants above 440 remains at 1500 (including pnps) I definetly agree that down the line may be after 3 draws..scores would come down do 438 or so. Though my logical brain doesn't agree with back to back draw..My heart is hoping for it! My guess would be that ircc would start inviting 3750 or 4000 from june draw onwards..thanks again for a such a beautiful post!!

 

[Hardit singh]

Is it possible to reissue the passport of Prime applicant after ITA?
Ielts trf has old passport number .
Reason is my consultant is asking for husband's name on wife's PCC.
My wife is prime applicant. I m dependent applicant.
I tried to make him understand but no use.
Finally thought of reissue the passport of my wife so that her PCC can have my name.

Please guide.

 

[Polarbear1]

Girls n guys....my french preparation starts today with my daughter's grade4 French Book . WISH ME LUCK.If anyone knows any group etc where speaking french can be practised...please let me know.

 

[ShahidWS]

Analysis and long term prediction for the remaining 2018.


Seeing the yesterday’s draw, I started wondering what is waiting for us in the upcoming months. So I sat with the available data and tried to make some sense of it.

My analysis is based on last year’s express entry draw data and I am comparing it with this year. We know last year the total target for express entry was 71700. For that CIC ended up issuing 84685 no of ITAs. Now I am aware of the argument that many people are making here which is, the target is for total admission and each ITA issued may result in 2-4 or more immigrant considering the accompanying spouse and dependents. Now I can understand that statement but I would like to see it this way, “The year 2017 also had similar target but still they ended up issuing around 13000 more ITAS then the target.” Now maybe in 2017 there were many rejection. Maybe around 50% of ITAs resulted in rejection! But I find that hard to believe.

That is why I think it is safe to assume for this year’s target 74900 which is 4% more than last year will also result in around 4% more issuance of ITAs. So we can set the total ITA target (I am aware that there there no term such as ITA target) for 2018 in the region of 88000.

So we can set the possible ITA no for 2018 as 88000

Now let’s compare what happened in 2017 and this year up until now. Last year up until April there were 10 draws and total 35973 no of ITAs were issued. Compared to that this year only 8 draws happened and total no of ITAS issued were 24500. So we can see that CIC is not keeping pace with previous years trend.

Now let us consider there are no back to back draw or even if there is one, there maybe 3 or 4 weeks delay so for our calculation we will say there will be 2 draws each month. So 1 in may and 14 more in the last seven months, we have 15 draws left. And total ITAs to be issued in this 15 draws will be 88000-3500-24500 = 60000. So to get to that no, each remaining draw will have to issue 60000/15 = 4000 ITAs.

Now that is encouraging if you ask me. Up until now 9 draws happened in 2018 so far and ITAs issued were 28000. So Maybe it is unlikely for CIC to issued 60k iTAs in just 15 draws, that then opens the door for more than 15 no of draws which only means back to back draw or 3-4 draw per month.


Now the bottom line is, I firmly belive this year nof od ITAS issued will be similar to lasy year if not more. In that case CIC will have to do more draws in order to catch up. Last year maximum no of ITAs were issued in the first half of the year and this year they will space it out throughout the year. That means there will be no sudden spike in the cut off.

· So Sorry to those who are in 410-425 range, I feel they are very unlikely to get a ITA.

· For people in the range of 425-430 you have a decent chance.

· 430+ guys have a good chance.

· for people above 435 it is just a matter of time.


Now let us tackle the issue of high scoring entry in the profile. As per my calculation the no of 440+ entry per week varies from 1200-1750. Now if we consider an average of 1500 profile per week above 440 entering the pool, then in the remaining 30 or so weeks of the year we will have 45000 no of people entering or updating their profile and enter with 440+ score in the pool. So still then according to our calculation of 60000 more ITAS to be issued this year, we have 15000 space left for existing profile in the pool. That surely will bring down score in the 425-430 region.

Now I would like to say again the total ITAS to be issued this year is not certain. It maybe more than 88000 or less than that. But even if the no of ITAS is same like last year , there are so many more ITAs to be issued in the remaining months of this year which means score are not going to stay in the 440 region for much longer because CIC will not be able to continue in the pattern that they set up since the start of 2018. Because that will mean they miss their target which I think is not gonna happen because everyone seemed so excited with their 3 year plan that was announced at the end of last year.

So guys, don’t lose hope. Things gonna change soon, I am pretty certain about it, just mark my words,


Prediction for coming months.

· Two-three more draw to happen with 3500 ITAs, one possible back to back draws within next 4 weeks.

· 3750-4000 ITAs per draw will be issued after that .

· After that no of ITAs will start to decrease and will hover around 3000-3500 region.


** If you guys dont agree with the analysis, please share your reason and view and we can discuss the differences.

Nice Analysis. Keeps the hope alive! Has a feel good factor at-least for those in the Mid 430's.

 

[AB-27991]

I'm surprised the tie-break times were so close for the last 2 draws.

December 8, then December 12. Looks like there's either a lot of profiles created in those 4 days, or only a few people with CRS of 441 got the invite.

Sorry for being late here, I was travelling, but I got the invitation. This probably means that time is not considered if day ties in tie-breaker?

 

[Reddiered07]

Guys I have given up trying to predict the trend. All I can say it that the scores will stay stable as CIC has learned from its mistakes and grown smarter over the time. High influx of new entrants is unlikely to let the cut-off score plunge like last year. Everyone under 440, please try to improve your score or accept provincial nomination whenever you are sent one. If the cut-off doesn't come down to 440 in next draw, I'll retake IELTS. However, the stability of the score is a new ray of hope for us now. Scores might remain in a similar range by the time some of us receive our new IELTS scores, or new diploma/degree in coming 3 to 6 months.
All the best.
Take care.
see you on 16th or 23rd

Any chance it will reach to 439 by july end? Will lose 5 points after that..stting at 440 with 1 day old in pool

 

[Reddiered07]

Sorry for being late here, I was travelling, but I got the invitation. This probably means that time is not considered if day ties in tie-breaker?

You have a crs score of 441? And when did you create your profile? 12th dec ? Moreover in tiebreaker rule they mention the exact time in seconds too..may be your submission time is earlier than that time mentioned