Ray of Hope - 90th Draw

[bells24]

If you have Bachelor only (what I think you have on your ECA), Getting diploma for any post secondary education (for at least 1 year) will help you a lot.
And learning French is an option as well.

This is very helpful, thank you. I honestly had not considered a one-year post-secondary degree, but I just did the CRS calculator for what it would be if I had that - plus my age being one year older - and it would be 448. So that's a really good idea. I'll have to look into what the fastest, most affordable post-secondary option would be...

thanks again!

 

[tuitui509]

Need some advise here all seniors and Santa and mighty gods! I have got a tricky situation, dont know what to do here.

Currently sitting at 439 with my wife accompanying and we maxed out all of our points already. I have CLB 10 Ielts, master degree ECA, my wife has CLB 9 Ielts Master Degree ECA. This only means one thing, I am an old turd!!! Which means next year I wont meet FSW 67 minimum requirement to qualify for EE anymore.

Long story short, in 2 weeks I will have my birthday, not so happy about it, and our Score will drop to 434 and we might have to wait another 6 month or so per the recent predictions and unknown variables, Thanks for that CIC!

my question is that if I shall change my spouse to non-accompanying to get the last chance before I am too old to get in? my CRS will be 442 if she is not accompanying.

Also lets say if I do non accompanying spouse if the next draw(2nd in May) before my birthday(hopefully, please dont surprise me CIC!) the cut off score is 438. will I be able to switch it to accompanying spouse after ITA given for the 442? I have header on this forum it is possible to add my spouse before PPR and landing.

Please help and advice! Thanks in advance.

 

[Kenny76]

Need some advise here all seniors and Santa and mighty gods! I have got a tricky situation, dont know what to do here.

Currently sitting at 439 with my wife accompanying and we maxed out all of our points already. I have CLB 10 Ielts, master degree ECA, my wife has CLB 9 Ielts Master Degree ECA. This only means one thing, I am an old turd!!! Which means next year I wont meet FSW 67 minimum requirement to qualify for EE anymore.

Long story short, in 2 weeks I will have my birthday, not so happy about it, and our Score will drop to 434 and we might have to wait another 6 month or so per the recent predictions and unknown variables, Thanks for that CIC!

my question is that if I shall change my spouse to non-accompanying to get the last chance before I am too old to get in? my CRS will be 442 if she is not accompanying.

Also lets say if I do non accompanying spouse if the next draw(2nd in May) before my birthday(hopefully, please dont surprise me CIC!) the cut off score is 438. will I be able to switch it to accompanying spouse after ITA given for the 442? I have header on this forum it is possible to add my spouse before PPR and landing.

Please help and advice! Thanks in advance.

How old are you if I may ask?

 

[tuitui509]

How old are you if I may ask?

Hey Kenny,

I am 38 and wont grow younger

 

[Kenny76]

Hey Kenny,

I am 38 and wont grow younger

If it is of any consolation, I am older than you by quite a margin. I ma wondering how you will not qualify for 67 minimum points next year. I calculated mine and its above that. Am i missing something and wasting my time?

 

[Kiki_tonia]

Hey Kenny,

I am 38 and wont grow younger

Is it possible for your wife to be the PA. That is, if she is younger and has the required work experience?

 

[NOMAD2017]

lo

So you are acting like a free agent?

lol, nope, just trying to be a good friend. Im gonna meet another friend this Saturday and help her make WES accounts for her and her husband. May even pay on their behalf as they don't have a credit card, lol.

 

[tuitui509]

Is it possible for your wife to be the PA. That is, if she is younger and has the required work experience?

unfortunately, she has less work experience to get full points from adaptability. We have thought about that. The only question left here is :

To accompany or to not accompany.

 

[special3220]

Analysis and long term prediction for the remaining 2018.


Seeing the yesterday’s draw, I started wondering what is waiting for us in the upcoming months. So I sat with the available data and tried to make some sense of it.

My analysis is based on last year’s express entry draw data and I am comparing it with this year. We know last year the total target for express entry was 71700. For that CIC ended up issuing 84685 no of ITAs. Now I am aware of the argument that many people are making here which is, the target is for total admission and each ITA issued may result in 2-4 or more immigrant considering the accompanying spouse and dependents. Now I can understand that statement but I would like to see it this way, “The year 2017 also had similar target but still they ended up issuing around 13000 more ITAS then the target.” Now maybe in 2017 there were many rejection. Maybe around 50% of ITAs resulted in rejection! But I find that hard to believe.

That is why I think it is safe to assume for this year’s target 74900 which is 4% more than last year will also result in around 4% more issuance of ITAs. So we can set the total ITA target (I am aware that there there no term such as ITA target) for 2018 in the region of 88000.

So we can set the possible ITA no for 2018 as 88000

Now let’s compare what happened in 2017 and this year up until now. Last year up until April there were 10 draws and total 35973 no of ITAs were issued. Compared to that this year only 8 draws happened and total no of ITAS issued were 24500. So we can see that CIC is not keeping pace with previous years trend.

Now let us consider there are no back to back draw or even if there is one, there maybe 3 or 4 weeks delay so for our calculation we will say there will be 2 draws each month. So 1 in may and 14 more in the last seven months, we have 15 draws left. And total ITAs to be issued in this 15 draws will be 88000-3500-24500 = 60000. So to get to that no, each remaining draw will have to issue 60000/15 = 4000 ITAs.

Now that is encouraging if you ask me. Up until now 9 draws happened in 2018 so far and ITAs issued were 28000. So Maybe it is unlikely for CIC to issued 60k iTAs in just 15 draws, that then opens the door for more than 15 no of draws which only means back to back draw or 3-4 draw per month.


Now the bottom line is, I firmly belive this year nof od ITAS issued will be similar to lasy year if not more. In that case CIC will have to do more draws in order to catch up. Last year maximum no of ITAs were issued in the first half of the year and this year they will space it out throughout the year. That means there will be no sudden spike in the cut off.

· So Sorry to those who are in 410-425 range, I feel they are very unlikely to get a ITA.

· For people in the range of 425-430 you have a decent chance.

· 430+ guys have a good chance.

· for people above 435 it is just a matter of time.


Now let us tackle the issue of high scoring entry in the profile. As per my calculation the no of 440+ entry per week varies from 1200-1750. Now if we consider an average of 1500 profile per week above 440 entering the pool, then in the remaining 30 or so weeks of the year we will have 45000 no of people entering or updating their profile and enter with 440+ score in the pool. So still then according to our calculation of 60000 more ITAS to be issued this year, we have 15000 space left for existing profile in the pool. That surely will bring down score in the 425-430 region.

Now I would like to say again the total ITAS to be issued this year is not certain. It maybe more than 88000 or less than that. But even if the no of ITAS is same like last year , there are so many more ITAs to be issued in the remaining months of this year which means score are not going to stay in the 440 region for much longer because CIC will not be able to continue in the pattern that they set up since the start of 2018. Because that will mean they miss their target which I think is not gonna happen because everyone seemed so excited with their 3 year plan that was announced at the end of last year.

So guys, don’t lose hope. Things gonna change soon, I am pretty certain about it, just mark my words,


Prediction for coming months.

· Two-three more draw to happen with 3500 ITAs, one possible back to back draws within next 4 weeks.

· 3750-4000 ITAs per draw will be issued after that .

· After that no of ITAs will start to decrease and will hover around 3000-3500 region.


** If you guys dont agree with the analysis, please share your reason and view and we can discuss the differences.

 

[keeratsingh]

lo

lol, nope, just trying to be a good friend. Im gonna meet another friend this Saturday and help her make WES accounts for her and her husband. May even pay on their behalf as they don't have a credit card, lol.

Keep up the good work buddy and thou shalt be rewarded...

 

[NOMAD2017]

Keep up the good work buddy and thou shalt be rewarded...

Amen Social work may pay off in the long run

 

[SumH12]

Yes that's what makes sense right now.
Also i think OINP and CIC are pretty much in sync this year and the whole thing is pretty planned out unlike the previous year.

The reason i say this is Ontario sent out NOI's to people between Jan-Mar with CRS ranging 435-441, and most of these people i believe have either received the nomination or close to receiving one. If we look at it now, if the CRS had to fall below 440 before may, then most of them would have preferred to reject the NOI and get a direct ITA. I guess that is the reason why there was a 3 week gap in March to ensure CRS stays above 440.

It would be interesting to see what range OINP targets next when they resume sending out the NOI's again, because that i believe will give us a fair idea of what to expect from CIC in the next 3-4 months.

Again all this is just theory and i could well be wrong. Just my two cents!
Lets keep hoping for the best and lets keep marching on!!

Good points
Considering that february NOIs effect is passing, and if new NOIs are in lower branch, I believe that soon they may start with more ITAs and maybe one back2back... I hope so badly they do at least one...

 

[sswas]

http://www.talebrewers.com/travel-food/a-new-immigrants-experience-guidebook-for-canada/

 

[tuitui509]

Analysis and long term prediction for the remaining 2018.


Seeing the yesterday’s draw, I started wondering what is waiting for us in the upcoming months. So I sat with the available data and tried to make some sense of it.

My analysis is based on last year’s express entry draw data and I am comparing it with this year. We know last year the total target for express entry was 71700. For that CIC ended up issuing 84685 no of ITAs. Now I am aware of the argument that many people are making here which is, the target is for total admission and each ITA issued may result in 2-4 or more immigrant considering the accompanying spouse and dependents. Now I can understand that statement but I would like to see it this way, “The year 2017 also had similar target but still they ended up issuing around 13000 more ITAS then the target.” Now maybe in 2017 there were many rejection. Maybe around 50% of ITAs resulted in rejection! But I find that hard to believe.

That is why I think it is safe to assume for this year’s target 74900 which is 4% more than last year will also result in around 4% more issuance of ITAs. So we can set the total ITA target (I am aware that there there no term such as ITA target) for 2018 in the region of 88000.

So we can set the possible ITA no for 2018 as 88000

Now let’s compare what happened in 2017 and this year up until now. Last year up until April there were 10 draws and total 35973 no of ITAs were issued. Compared to that this year only 8 draws happened and total no of ITAS issued were 24500. So we can see that CIC is not keeping pace with previous years trend.

Now let us consider there are no back to back draw or even if there is one, there maybe 3 or 4 weeks delay so for our calculation we will say there will be 2 draws each month. So 1 in may and 14 more in the last seven months, we have 15 draws left. And total ITAs to be issued in this 15 draws will be 88000-3500-24500 = 60000. So to get to that no, each remaining draw will have to issue 60000/15 = 4000 ITAs.

Now that is encouraging if you ask me. Up until now 9 draws happened in 2018 so far and ITAs issued were 28000. So Maybe it is unlikely for CIC to issued 60k iTAs in just 15 draws, that then opens the door for more than 15 no of draws which only means back to back draw or 3-4 draw per month.


Now the bottom line is, I firmly belive this year nof od ITAS issued will be similar to lasy year if not more. In that case CIC will have to do more draws in order to catch up. Last year maximum no of ITAs were issued in the first half of the year and this year they will space it out throughout the year. That means there will be no sudden spike in the cut off.

· So Sorry to those who are in 410-425 range, I feel they are very unlikely to get a ITA.

· For people in the range of 425-430 you have a decent chance.

· 430+ guys have a good chance.

· for people above 435 it is just a matter of time.


Now let us tackle the issue of high scoring entry in the profile. As per my calculation the no of 440+ entry per week varies from 1200-1750. Now if we consider an average of 1500 profile per week above 440 entering the pool, then in the remaining 30 or so weeks of the year we will have 45000 no of people entering or updating their profile and enter with 440+ score in the pool. So still then according to our calculation of 60000 more ITAS to be issued this year, we have 15000 space left for existing profile in the pool. That surely will bring down score in the 425-430 region.

Now I would like to say again the total ITAS to be issued this year is not certain. It maybe more than 88000 or less than that. But even if the no of ITAS is same like last year , there are so many more ITAs to be issued in the remaining months of this year which means score are not going to stay in the 440 region for much longer because CIC will not be able to continue in the pattern that they set up since the start of 2018. Because that will mean they miss their target which I think is not gonna happen because everyone seemed so excited with their 3 year plan that was announced at the end of last year.

So guys, don’t lose hope. Things gonna change soon, I am pretty certain about it, just mark my words,


Prediction for coming months.

· Two-three more draw to happen with 3500 ITAs, one possible back to back draws within next 4 weeks.

· 3750-4000 ITAs per draw will be issued after that .

· After that no of ITAs will start to decrease and will hover around 3000-3500 region.


** If you guys dont agree with the analysis, please share your reason and view and we can discuss the differences.

Thanks for sharing your thought and prepare all the notes. Do you think 90th draw will be according to 2 week schedule?

I thought the 2018 target is 74,900, but you indicated 88000, could you please share the source

Could you please share your prediction for the upcoming draw #2 in May?

Thank you

 

[SumH12]

Analysis and long term prediction for the remaining 2018.


Seeing the yesterday’s draw, I started wondering what is waiting for us in the upcoming months. So I sat with the available data and tried to make some sense of it.

My analysis is based on last year’s express entry draw data and I am comparing it with this year. We know last year the total target for express entry was 71700. For that CIC ended up issuing 84685 no of ITAs. Now I am aware of the argument that many people are making here which is, the target is for total admission and each ITA issued may result in 2-4 or more immigrant considering the accompanying spouse and dependents. Now I can understand that statement but I would like to see it this way, “The year 2017 also had similar target but still they ended up issuing around 13000 more ITAS then the target.” Now maybe in 2017 there were many rejection. Maybe around 50% of ITAs resulted in rejection! But I find that hard to believe.

That is why I think it is safe to assume for this year’s target 74900 which is 4% more than last year will also result in around 4% more issuance of ITAs. So we can set the total ITA target (I am aware that there there no term such as ITA target) for 2018 in the region of 88000.

So we can set the possible ITA no for 2018 as 88000

Now let’s compare what happened in 2017 and this year up until now. Last year up until April there were 10 draws and total 35973 no of ITAs were issued. Compared to that this year only 8 draws happened and total no of ITAS issued were 24500. So we can see that CIC is not keeping pace with previous years trend.

Now let us consider there are no back to back draw or even if there is one, there maybe 3 or 4 weeks delay so for our calculation we will say there will be 2 draws each month. So 1 in may and 14 more in the last seven months, we have 15 draws left. And total ITAs to be issued in this 15 draws will be 88000-3500-24500 = 60000. So to get to that no, each remaining draw will have to issue 60000/15 = 4000 ITAs.

Now that is encouraging if you ask me. Up until now 9 draws happened in 2018 so far and ITAs issued were 28000. So Maybe it is unlikely for CIC to issued 60k iTAs in just 15 draws, that then opens the door for more than 15 no of draws which only means back to back draw or 3-4 draw per month.


Now the bottom line is, I firmly belive this year nof od ITAS issued will be similar to lasy year if not more. In that case CIC will have to do more draws in order to catch up. Last year maximum no of ITAs were issued in the first half of the year and this year they will space it out throughout the year. That means there will be no sudden spike in the cut off.

· So Sorry to those who are in 410-425 range, I feel they are very unlikely to get a ITA.

· For people in the range of 425-430 you have a decent chance.

· 430+ guys have a good chance.

· for people above 435 it is just a matter of time.


Now let us tackle the issue of high scoring entry in the profile. As per my calculation the no of 440+ entry per week varies from 1200-1750. Now if we consider an average of 1500 profile per week above 440 entering the pool, then in the remaining 30 or so weeks of the year we will have 45000 no of people entering or updating their profile and enter with 440+ score in the pool. So still then according to our calculation of 60000 more ITAS to be issued this year, we have 15000 space left for existing profile in the pool. That surely will bring down score in the 425-430 region.

Now I would like to say again the total ITAS to be issued this year is not certain. It maybe more than 88000 or less than that. But even if the no of ITAS is same like last year , there are so many more ITAs to be issued in the remaining months of this year which means score are not going to stay in the 440 region for much longer because CIC will not be able to continue in the pattern that they set up since the start of 2018. Because that will mean they miss their target which I think is not gonna happen because everyone seemed so excited with their 3 year plan that was announced at the end of last year.

So guys, don’t lose hope. Things gonna change soon, I am pretty certain about it, just mark my words,


Prediction for coming months.

· Two-three more draw to happen with 3500 ITAs, one possible back to back draws within next 4 weeks.

· 3750-4000 ITAs per draw will be issued after that .

· After that no of ITAs will start to decrease and will hover around 3000-3500 region.


** If you guys dont agree with the analysis, please share your reason and view and we can discuss the differences.

Thank you for your analysis. I have more hope now.

But, Time is our big issue... those not so happy birthdays to come. Right now, with my husband, we are waiting at 434 but that score will last until october. I really wish that by August the minimum CRS is already in late 420s or 430.