Okay you crazy people, since all of you are desperately waiting for the next draw and apprehensive about the cut-off limit, here's some rational prediction for the next draw based on some logical analysis. I am not gonna sugar coat it. I am gonna present the facts as they are:
On Sep 14th, below is the approx pool count:
0601 - 1200 >> 208
0450 - 0600 >> 850
0401 - 0450 >> 12800
Now 1 week later, when the draw was done on Sep 20th, we can ASSUME the pool condition might be like this:
0601 - 1200 >> 220
0450 - 0600 >> 930
0401 - 0450 >> 14000
Interesting thing to note here is that the ITA was given to (rounding off)
~ 2900 applicants out of which approx
1150 (220+930) were above 450.
Which means there were only
1750 (2900 - 1150) applicants in the range of 433 to 450, which in turn means, on Sep 20th, there were approx
12250 (14000 - 1750) applicants from 401 to 432 range.
As it has been 1 week, the pool is filling up again and we can fairly assume that below be condition of the pool as of 27th Sep.
0601 - 1200 >> 110
0450 - 0600 >> 290
0401 - 0450 >> 13200
By next week it will look something like this:
0601 - 1200 >> 180
0450 - 0600 >> 620
0401 - 0450 >> 14000+
So unless, there is one intermediate draw to flush off the 450 above applicants, usually of < 1000 applicants per draw, we can assume that if the applicant count of next draw is again ~ 2800, and is conducted on 4th Oct, the cut off limit will not budge much and will be +/- 2 points max as it is very crowded below 430 range.
In case the draw is performed on 11th, there will be definite spike in the cut off.
So at this moment, for next couple of draws, I don't see folks below 430 getting ITA if applicant count per draw remains the same viz: < 3000.
Told you, not gonna sugar coat it. Will present the facts and predict as per my logic
