Ray of Hope 66th Draw

[eshahari12]

is the score going to go below 449 i am on 435

 

[Dsharma123]

Hey guys I hv one question. The distribution list was Tim 22nd June so all people about 449 got selected..is that true or still there are 2200 people from 451 to 460

 

[sukrithy]

A real cliff hanger for me, as I scored 449 points. Now, I wonder how many people with this score were selected. As they say: if it weren't for hope a heart would break.

A. Riding to the scores table given on cic website... around 950 people having 449 and 450 scores were selected. Don't know how many among the 950 are 449 and how many are 450.

 

[sukrithy]

where should we check for ITA... I had not received ITA yet thought my CRS is 465

After you open your profile, there will be a table with your express entry number and details. Far right you will have two tabs - 'Check status and messages' and 'withdraw profile' . Click on the former one and you will the invitation message

 

[abhishek_89]

I have come up with the prediction for the 66th draw.

If it happens on:
Jun 28 - CRS 443 - ITAs 3800
Jun 29 - CRS 444 - ITAs 3800
Jun 30 - CRS 446 - ITAs 3800

The variance in the above calculation is +/- 4 CRS.

My prediction of the CRS cut off was based on the assumption that 3800 ITAs would be issued. Based on the data I used, if calculated for 3400, it comes as 448.

So if CIC had issued 3800 ITAs, the cut off would have been very close to my predicted cut off of CRS 443.

 

[genzo]

My prediction of the CRS cut off was based on the assumption that 3800 ITAs would be issued. Based on the data I used, if calculated for 3400, it comes as 448.

So if CIC had issued 3800 ITAs, the cut off would have been very close to my predicted cut off of CRS 443.

Wow you are so good! So what's your prediction of next draws? Will it be 425 in the Mid-July?

 

[picklee]

Hey guys I hv one question. The distribution list was Tim 22nd June so all people about 449 got selected..is that true or still there are 2200 people from 451 to 460

It is unlikely that many candidates between 415-460 are still in the pool.

 

[abhishek_89]

Is it still the case that not everyone with 449 gets in? My friend has exactly 449 so waiting game to see if she gets an ITA

I would assume your friend has got the ITA and CIC has sent ITAs to everyone with CRS 449 even though the new rule is in effect.

Basically CIC did not want to issue ITAs way above their target. For example if they wanted the target to be 3400 for this draw and the actual number of folks with CRS 449 and above were 3409, it does not make sense to limit the cut off with only 3400 invites and disappoint 9 people.

My assumption is that the rule would be applied only in cases where CIC's target and the actual number of people is way above the target number.

For example, if there are 3550 people with CRS 449 and above and there are 3280 people with CRS 450 and above in the pool. So if the target is 3400 ITAs, they wouldn't keep the cut off as 450 because the ITA count would be way lower than the target and if they keep the cut off as 449, they wouldn't invite all 3550 people as that would be way more than the target. In these cases, they would issue 3400 ITAs and keep the cut off as 449 with the new rule in place.

 

[picklee]

is the score going to go below 449 i am on 435

It's quite likely the score draw will come down below the 430s.

 

[abhishek_89]

Can anyone here explain the reason for increase in the cut off?

Is it becoz of new applicants, OINP acceptance by candidates or because of the amendments in the scores parameters?

Or a combination of all three.

Major reason: 4 weeks gap between the draws which has got a lot of people into the pool (either new applicants or existing applicants who increased their scores) which had flushed out everyone with CRS 413 and above in the May 31st draw.

If you look at the numbers of those above 600 CRS, it was only 355. This basically means in a span of 22 days only 355 people got nominated which is a low number compared to the number of invites issued.

Also, the June 6 changes would have added 15 or 30 points to the existing folks with siblings or strong french skills, still the maximum CRS would have been someone who jumped from 412 to 442, which is still less than the cut off for this draw.

 

[abhishek_89]

Yeah but what startled me is no of ITAs ....now with the vintage ranking,their draws are simpler and could have invited 3800-3900 keeping in mind the delay ....and they would have got ahead of the back log in process in the longer than usual interval and that had infact given room for a bigger draw...instead they chose to cut down couple of hundred ITAs......
I'm gonna drown myself in beer

Yes that's the only thing to worry about this draw. Realistically there is no reason for them to have future draws with the same gap, so that aspect is safe. The only worry would be if they reduce the number of ITAs issued in each draw.

If they keep the ITAs constant at around 3400, then the cut offs would start a declining trend again if they have draws with a 1 or 2 week gap.

 

[abhishek_89]

How can crs be 449 when 355+2216+809=3380 and 34k candidates are invited. So the crs should be less than 441.. someone please explain.

The data published by CIC is as of June 22. The draw happened 6 days after that on June 28th. Hence, on the morning of June 28, there were atleast 3409 people with CRS 449 or above in the pool.

 

[BillHyatt]

things changed a lot after new draw. Earlier only 12000+ above 380. Now, it is 30,000+

After the previous draw, there are about 18,000 candidates in the pool above 380 and not 30,000+. You must be adding up sum of the ranges as well.

 

[abhishek_89]

How did CIC send ITA to 3409, when the breakdown of CRS range between 441-450 having 809 candidates.
Please explain

The data which you see is as of June 22, not yesterday's. So, more folks got added after that before the draw.

 

[abhishek_89]

is the score going to go below 449 i am on 435

Yes it is going down from the next draw onwards unless they reduce the invitations issued or have the next draw after a 4-week gap.