Ray of Hope 62nd Draw

[Wandering Mind]

I

Know I was really hoping. Very anxious

Don't be. These things take time. I've been in the pool since last 8 months. Good luck!

 

[_Harry_]

I have a theory here. Just some logical speculations based on the current data available.

As of April 28 we can see that there are around 2003 applicants between 411-420 and some 453 between 421-430.
By May 04 I guess the 411-420 range has some 3000 applicants and assuming there are 200 applicants between 421-422 range.
Now since last draw was at 423, I suppose this must have taken out everybody out of the pool except < 423 applicants.
So basically we have some 3200 candidates from 411 to 422 in the EE pool by May 4.

Now lets say since then, 2000+ more applicants joined the 411 to 422 range and >2.2k joined the 423-1200 range..with PNP and job offers and what not. Considering in Apr 28 we had almost same count in this range.
So basically we have around 5500 candidates in the 411-422 range & 2.2k in the 423+ range.

Assuming CIC will invite more than 2.5k candidates on May 17, I am hoping the cut off will drop and will reach around 417-418 not below that.
If they call around 2.5k candidates, then chances are the cut off will be 420-421.
If they call less than 2k candidates, then cut off is definitely going to increase and will be in the 427+ range.

Now it all boils down to how much quota they have actually left (adding the rejection in the already sent ITA) and how they want to ration it.
If someone can confirm how many months are left for 2017, that would be great.
We can predict the ITA count in a much finer way and can predict the cut off of the coming draws.

 

[Wandering Mind]

I have a theory here. Just some logical speculations based on the current data available.

As of May 4 we can see that there are around 2003 applicants between 411-420 and some 453 between 421-430.
Now since last draw was at 423, I suppose this must have taken around 200 (lets say 206) candidates out of the 421-430 range.
So basically we have some 2150 candidates from 411 to 422 in the EE pool by May 4.

Now lets say since then, 3k more applicants joined the 411 to 420 range and >2.2k joined the 421-1200 range.
So basically we have around 5200 candidates in the 411-420 range & 2.2k in the 421+ range.

Assuming CIC will invite more than 2.5k candidates on May 17, I am hoping the cut off will drop and will reach around 417-418 not below that.
If they call around 2.5k candidates, then chances are the cut off will be 420-421.
If they call less than 2k candidates, then cut off is definitely going to increase and will be in the 427+ range.

Sound reasoning.

 

[Chiragappa]

No draw coming up this week... Good luck everyone for next week..

 

[Wandering Mind]

No draw coming up this week... Good luck everyone for next week..

We don't know that for sure In the past there have been draws on Friday and Saturday as well

 

[Chiragappa]

Well can be optimistic but its not happening... On next wednesday and the 3rd draw of the month would happen on 31st may... This month has 5 wednesdays... Generally when the draw happens. See thats what I see from here on. Hopefully it will come down to 405 in next 2 draws. Then we may have a little upside as many of us will get the 6th june additional points.

 

[binux14]

No draw coming up this week... Good luck everyone for next week..

Actually, the time of the draw that took place on the 12th of April was 17:24:01 UTC... So a draw is still possible today (now it is 16:45 UTC), although a little unlikely.

 

[_Harry_]

I may be wrong but I have kinda feeling that draw might happen tomorrow or on Saturday. Could be wrong though.

 

[canada_dreamer]

I've never seen more than 3 draws a month. I think there will be 2 more draws this month, but with 2 week intervals. The only chance of a back to back i see is on first week of june (maybe monday or tuesday) right before new changes take effect. Last time they implemented a change, they didnt have a draw in like 4 weeks. So they might do a draw on 1st week of june.

 

[Martin_Ma]

My wife and I have a score of 414, any chance of getting invited this month?

 

[ivancabrer]

I may be wrong but I have kinda feeling that draw might happen tomorrow or on Saturday. Could be wrong though.

Any particular reasons why you have that feeling?
Not that I wouldn't love it , but even if I'm very positive, I think they'll do it next week.

 

[qgon123]

My wife and I have a score of 414, any chance of getting invited this month?

Hopefully, you'll get ITA this month.

 

[Martin_Ma]

Hopefully, you'll get ITA this month.

Thank you for saying that. We are worried about if we wouldn't get the invitation by June 6th, then the chance for next following months would even less.

 

[kushagra452]

I have 454. Any chance of getting an ITA in the next round? I have my documents ready!

 

[omarkhan]

Very unlikely but CIC is full of surprises

True that. Hope we get happily surprised. Anyway, I think we'll have to think for one more week now.