~~RAY of HOPE 51st Draw~~ (Predictions)

[Almostther]

As on Jan 2016, of the total active profiles, majority( more than 50%) of the candidates were between 350-500 and of these maximum were between 400-459. After the recent changes of additional points for Canadian education many might have benefited and moved to the slab of 450-500 only and very very few beyond 500.
Assuming express entry is attracting around 1.8-2 lacs applications in a year and after all the filtering of ineligible profiles there could be around 75k active profiles (basis last year report of 1.9 lac applications and 60k active profiles).

In a month there could be around 1.5-2k eligible profiles with Canadian edu criteria with experience ranging 1-3 years they would land between 450-500.

If they issue average 2.5k ITA’s per draw, assuming highest score as 500 and least score around 470, these profiles would be around 1.5k and will move out of the system fast and in these 2.5k ITA’s other profiles with PNP and job offers will also move out. if there are issues in few profiles the score might drop below 470 giving opportunity to profiles other than Canadian educated.

There is also a probability that if the no. of ITA’s are close to 3k or more than 3k the scores might come down below 450 fast giving scope to candidates between 400-450. Each draw should be near 3k for scores to come down fast

Although your speculations are pretty positive and energetic, I doubt they will continue with 3k trend in 2017. My guess is that they would hover around 2.5 k. with this rate, they should go scores sub 460 by the end of first quarter of 2017.

 

[jackdawn]

Although your speculations are pretty positive and energetic, I doubt they will continue with 3k trend in 2017. My guess is that they would hover around 2.5 k. with this rate, they should go scores sub 460 by the end of first quarter of 2017.

i dont disagree Almostther.

I read in this form that the canadian educated candidates will never let the scores come down and i dont disagree with them even as the number of candidates inthe system are huge.

source
cbie.ca/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Infographic-Inbound_EN.pdf

cbie.ca/media/facts-and-figures/


There are about 3.5 lac international students in canada as of 2015 at different levels of education. This no. is increasing aggressively YOY and if we assume that around 2.5 lac are at university level, each year the Canadian system has fresh blood to absorb and these candidates are potential EE candidates. The report also says that 51% of these international students opt for PR.

In this scenario i only feel that the others will have opportunity when the no of ITA's are more in each draw but then im not aware whats the EE quota for this year and if it is evenly distributed across draw's.

The no. of profiles between 350-450 is also huge and is human capitol and unless IRCC tweaks the norms again in their favor like what it did for students, they dont stand a chance

 

[mukulabd]

Although your speculations are pretty positive and energetic, I doubt they will continue with 3k trend in 2017. My guess is that they would hover around 2.5 k. with this rate, they should go scores sub 460 by the end of first quarter of 2017.

The ITA count will reach 3k provided they doubled the intake for next year which is not the case. From what I had read they have increased the intake by 50%. So if we look at 2016 per draw count it averages to around 1.5k. So 50% increase leads to around 2.25k average ITA per draw.

 

[ab.kapoor]

Hi All,

just missed the last draw by 1 day... got PNP points credited..

Just a query though, when can we expect the next draw...?

Expecting it to happen in 2016, will it be too much to ask for...? :-\ :-\

 

[mukulabd]

Hi All,

just missed the last draw by 1 day... got PNP points credited..

Just a query though, when can we expect the next draw...?

Expecting it to happen in 2016, will it be too much to ask for...? :-\ :-\

First or second week of January.

 

[Castillo]

As on Jan 2016, of the total active profiles, majority( more than 50%) of the candidates were between 350-500 and of these maximum were between 400-459. After the recent changes of additional points for Canadian education many might have benefited and moved to the slab of 450-500 only and very very few beyond 500.
Assuming express entry is attracting around 1.8-2 lacs applications in a year and after all the filtering of ineligible profiles there could be around 75k active profiles (basis last year report of 1.9 lac applications and 60k active profiles).

In a month there could be around 1.5-2k eligible profiles with Canadian edu criteria with experience ranging 1-3 years they would land between 450-500.

If they issue average 2.5k ITA’s per draw, assuming highest score as 500 and least score around 470, these profiles would be around 1.5k and will move out of the system fast and in these 2.5k ITA’s other profiles with PNP and job offers will also move out. if there are issues in few profiles the score might drop below 470 giving opportunity to profiles other than Canadian educated.

There is also a probability that if the no. of ITA’s are close to 3k or more than 3k the scores might come down below 450 fast giving scope to candidates between 400-450. Each draw should be near 3k for scores to come down fast

Are these hypothetical or facts ? They sound hypothetical and most of your assumptions are wrong !

 

[thestunner316]

Well I was not enquiring about the nationality ! My question was about exam, anyway since u have declared as ielts my next question is: the speaking module for ielts has max if 7.5 in EE when I entered my score, so how can a candidate get 9 points in speaking for ielts? Or is it just my profile?? This is the confusing part

i think you are getting confused, there are 2 things here... IELTS scores - max is 9.0 in each module... other is CLB score, which you can reach upto CLB10 per module... to reach CLB 10 in each module, you need
8.5 - listening
7.5 - writing
7.5 speaking
8.0 - reading

if you hit the above scores, you will get CLB10 and max out no of points by ielts (thats what i've done).

now to clear your doubt - this DOES NOT mean you cannot get 9 in writing, or 9 in speaking during your IELTS test... you can get 9.0 in all modules, awesome... however you will still only get CLB10 in the EE profile.

i hope this clears yours, and anyone elses confusion on the forum

good luck

 

[jackdawn]

Are these hypothetical or facts ? They sound hypothetical and most of your assumptions are wrong !

only figures as of jan 16 report of cic are facts, rest are assumptions only and are hypothetical

 

[TrackIT]

i think you are getting confused, there are 2 things here... IELTS scores - max is 9.0 in each module... other is CLB score, which you can reach upto CLB10 per module... to reach CLB 10 in each module, you need
8.5 - listening
7.5 - writing
7.5 speaking
8.0 - reading

if you hit the above scores, you will get CLB10 and max out no of points by ielts (thats what i've done).

now to clear your doubt - this DOES NOT mean you cannot get 9 in writing, or 9 in speaking during your IELTS test... you can get 9.0 in all modules, awesome... however you will still only get CLB10 in the EE profile.

i hope this clears yours, and anyone elses confusion on the forum

good luck

Thanks man that was clear! I'm not able to paste the screenshot here otherwise it would have been easy to explain

 

[RK117]

Most of them are forgetting that in 2015 and 2016, along with EE draw, it was paper based applications prior of 2015 that was also eating up the space. If you look into the targets of 2015 and 2016, it is clearly mentioned that it will be half of the applications from express entry.

While for 2017, it is clearly written that mostly it will be from express entry. Now, mostly is a subjective term. But anything above 75% falls into the category of mostly.

Second, they have increased the economic immigrants targets for 2017. So that increase is also a plus.

Third, they have decreased the points for LMIA.

All in all, all the above three factors should bring down the score. Well, we dont know by what, but it looks it should go down below 450. Remember, in entire history of express entry, no one ever though the draws would be of those sizes. Tt was always around 1500 lot in 2015, while 2016 was different due to refugees. for six months, it was in the around 700.

But 2017 could be a different story all together. As stated in some paper in canada, there are 60000 active profiles in express entry. Since then 13000+ have been drawn. Yes, there would be new additions. But, I dont think that total active profiles in express entry at the end of year would not be more that 55000.

Now the most important optics that we all need to take into considerations is how is the distribution. Well, these are known to IRCC. But, we may get the visibility by January 2017 when we end of year report is published.

Cheers
Ran Kap

 

[Pat180715]

Thanks man that was clear! I'm not able to paste the screenshot here otherwise it would have been easy to explain

But I think in EE profile we put direct IELTS results, not CLB equivalent. I have 9.0 in IELTS speaking, and I put it there. So if you can't put it there, maybe it's some glitch in the system.

 

[williameyidi]

Knowing that there will be almost no major move untill the next draw.
I mean no student will graduate, also the PNP will be slowed down because of holidays.
I am sure the draw will get till 460+as the 475+ have been cleared.

thats my prediction.

 

[Broken Heart]

Merry Xmas and Happy new Yr to all...!!!

Ive been following the ray of hope threads for some months now...really nice stuff...!!!

Good news:
Got ITA.
My score jumped from 398 to 488.

Bad news:
I started working 11/Jan/2016.
The system calculates months only, you know the story.

Right thing to do or should I say safe thing to do:
Decline invitation, go back to pool, only accept ITA (i.e. submit PR application) after 10th/Jan/2017.

Dilemma:
Implied status since 15th Nov/2016, based on BOWP application (paper).
Based on CIC calculations, outcome of application will be around 1st/March/2017.
If by then I don't pass the R10 completeness check, BOWP will be refused.

Risks:
1. Wait for the draw after the 10th of Jan/2017. >>>then submit asap >>>>hope for R10 before March.
Risk no.1 >>>>>Will the score be less then 488?
2. Submit application after the 10th of Jan, without waiting for any more draws.
Risk no.2 >>>>>will the application be rejected after 4 months?
3. Submit application now.
Risk no.3 >>>>>Will application pass R10, in order to get BOWP, and then even if PR is refused, apply again?


Life is full of dilemmas...!!!

Be patient guys, with will and determination we will all reach our goals....!!!

 

[kkannan1989]

I would say with your score of 488 it would be a safe bet to stay away from ITA till 11 jan.

Although clarification can be sought to mitigate this confusion....I would say better safe than sorry !!

 

[Escobar Gaviria]

Merry Xmas and Happy new Yr to all...!!!

Ive been following the ray of hope threads for some months now...really nice stuff...!!!

Good news:
Got ITA.
My score jumped from 398 to 488.

Bad news:
I started working 11/Jan/2016.
The system calculates months only, you know the story.

Right thing to do or should I say safe thing to do:
Decline invitation, go back to pool, only accept ITA (i.e. submit PR application) after 10th/Jan/2017.

Dilemma:
Implied status since 15th Nov/2016, based on BOWP application (paper).
Based on CIC calculations, outcome of application will be around 1st/March/2017.
If by then I don't pass the R10 completeness check, BOWP will be refused.

Risks:
1. Wait for the draw after the 10th of Jan/2017. >>>then submit asap >>>>hope for R10 before March.
Risk no.1 >>>>>Will the score be less then 488?
2. Submit application after the 10th of Jan, without waiting for any more draws.
Risk no.2 >>>>>will the application be rejected after 4 months?
3. Submit application now.
Risk no.3 >>>>>Will application pass R10, in order to get BOWP, and then even if PR is refused, apply again?


Life is full of dilemmas...!!!

Be patient guys, with will and determination we will all reach our goals....!!!

When you said, the system calculates months only, can you explain more about what does that really mean?
If someone started working from 25th of a given month, would that month be included in work history?