Ray of HOPE *50th Draw*(Score Prediction)

[Castillo]

Every year you will get fresh batch of graduates and all all over the year people will get additional points for whole work year in Canada or for 1 year work under closed work permit.

Yes durng those times when deris quata of fresh graduates, the CRS surges and then once dey r cleared return and fluctaute around d threshold. When CRS was 450 were people not gaining work experience ? Your arguments are not convincing.

 

[vensak]

Yes durng those times when deris quata of fresh graduates, the CRS surges and then once dey r cleared return and fluctaute around d threshold. When CRS was 450 were people not gaining work experience ? Your arguments are not convincing.

There was no 50 points for LMIA extempt contracts before (NAFTA, Intercompany transfer, Mobilite Francophone). At the same time LMIA has gone down by 50 points so they are mixed with others as well.

There is no rule that every graduate will put down his or her EE on the day of graduation. They will still do it all over the year, but you can be sure that every year there will be fresh batch of people with Canadian diploma.
So there will be no such thing as clearing from international students. The only thing that will happen is slight relief until the point where the pumping off the EE (amount of ITA) will balance off with the average monthly income of new graduates. However those additional points already cause increase in the system
(the same 1300 non PNP applicants per month now need higher CRS score to get through.)

 

[Castillo]

There was no 50 points for LMIA extempt contracts before (NAFTA, Intercompany transfer, Mobilite Francophone). At the same time LMIA has gone down by 50 points so they are mixed with others as well.

There is no rule that every graduate will put down his or her EE on the day of graduation. They will still do it all over the year, but you can be sure that every year there will be fresh batch of people with Canadian diploma.
So there will be no such thing as clearing from international students. The only thing that will happen is slight relief until the point where the pumping off the EE (amount of ITA) will balance off with the average monthly income of new graduates. However those additional points already cause increase in the system
(the same 1300 non PNP applicants per month now need higher CRS score to get through.)

d

So Canadian universities graduate students monthly? Guy your argument is not rvalid

 

[_Aspirant]

d

So Canadian universities graduate students monthly? Guy your argument is not rvalid

I second that. Although some of the extrapolation by Vensak might be valid but, I am quite sure the score will go down in few months.

 

[mukulabd]

d

So Canadian universities graduate students monthly? Guy your argument is not rvalid

I think what he is saying is although they graduate only after a semester (fall/spring/summer or whatever the academic system is in canada) they might put up their EE profile any time of the year. However they can claim points only after the semester is over.

 

[vensak]

d

So Canadian universities graduate students monthly? Guy your argument is not rvalid

Those graduates do not all of them fill in the EE at the certain date. (there is no such requirement there).
What they do instead (depending how is their life sitation), they decide at a certain point of life to get into EE stream (and that is different and depends on when they take their first language test and also when they fullfill the 1 year work criteria).
What also clearly happens that some start at lower EE score (you can see that all the time on this forum, people asking what are my chances if I have this or that score). Then they realise that they are too much below (for example just 1 language skill below CBL 9 have taken away 58 points). And as a result they will redo their language test, or their spouse will assess their language skills and diplomas. So with time they get higher points on EE stream.
This process is happening all over the year. (you can even see some people saying in some threads how they were on those points and now they are better off).

What I am saying that every year you will have next fresh batch of international students graduates which will undergo the same process as I have just described.

So unless the rules will be change, where will be no such thing as a system cleared of international students.

Now your thinking is that there is some kind of huge backlog of older students, which once cleared up will push the points down. Unfortunately that is not correct.

Check upon the statistic that was released since EE is operating. Those "backlogers" were in the system all the time (at very least they poured in shortly after the system was activated). We have here something that is running 2 years and in that time students started circulating as anybody else before and also creating pressure on the system. It is just, that before they did have 15 or 30 points less.

In addition people who did not have access to additional 50 points now got them (LMIA extempt closed work permits). But again most of those people were already put in the system. So now they do have more points. And yes, LMIA value itself was cut down, which created just different point redistribution, but interestingly it pushed the top 1300 non PNP candidates to the higher score than before.

And again system in not static, all those people with more points claiming will be pouring in the system just as before.

So, unless you change the amount of picked non PNP applicants, the new min CRS limit will be around 470.
And with tendency to go up? Why? Simply because of the natality level in some countries is creating more and more applicants every year. With more applicants there will be higher presure for perfection of your own score.

And before point to PNP - they do have their own separate quota, so number of PNP in the system has almost no impact on the system (occasional sway of 2 to 3 points up if a higher batch of PNP is released, which will be corrected within 2 draws).

 

[Castillo]

Those graduates do not all of them fill in the EE at the certain date. (there is no such requirement there).
What they do instead (depending how is their life sitation), they decide at a certain point of life to get into EE stream (and that is different and depends on when they take their first language test and also when they fullfill the 1 year work criteria).
What also clearly happens that some start at lower EE score (you can see that all the time on this forum, people asking what are my chances if I have this or that score). Then they realise that they are too much below (for example just 1 language skill below CBL 9 have taken away 58 points). And as a result they will redo their language test, or their spouse will assess their language skills and diplomas. So with time they get higher points on EE stream.
This process is happening all over the year. (you can even see some people saying in some threads how they were on those points and now they are better off).

What I am saying that every year you will have next fresh batch of international students graduates which will undergo the same process as I have just described.

So unless the rules will be change, where will be no such thing as a system cleared of international students.

Now your thinking is that there is some kind of huge backlog of older students, which once cleared up will push the points down. Unfortunately that is not correct.

Check upon the statistic that was released since EE is operating. Those "backlogers" were in the system all the time (at very least they poured in shortly after the system was activated). We have here something that is running 2 years and in that time students started circulating as anybody else before and also creating pressure on the system. It is just, that before they did have 15 or 30 points less.

In addition people who did not have access to additional 50 points now got them (LMIA extempt closed work permits). But again most of those people were already put in the system. So now they do have more points. And yes, LMIA value itself was cut down, which created just different point redistribution, but interestingly it pushed the top 1300 non PNP candidates to the higher score than before.

And again system in not static, all those people with more points claiming will be pouring in the system just as before.

So, unless you change the amount of picked non PNP applicants, the new min CRS limit will be around 470.
And with tendency to go up? Why? Simply because of the natality level in some countries is creating more and more applicants every year. With more applicants there will be higher presure for perfection of your own score.

And before point to PNP - they do have their own separate quota, so number of PNP in the system has almost no impact on the system (occasional sway of 2 to 3 points up if a higher batch of PNP is released, which will be corrected within 2 draws).

Your elaborate write-up s a rigmarole.... Still doesn't Make any valid point !

 

[thinkshady]

Speculations with high riff

Draw 50th - 480
Draw 51st - 470
Draw 52nd - 460

 

[dr.psr]

Those graduates do not all of them fill in the EE at the certain date. (there is no such requirement there).
What they do instead (depending how is their life sitation), they decide at a certain point of life to get into EE stream (and that is different and depends on when they take their first language test and also when they fullfill the 1 year work criteria).
What also clearly happens that some start at lower EE score (you can see that all the time on this forum, people asking what are my chances if I have this or that score). Then they realise that they are too much below (for example just 1 language skill below CBL 9 have taken away 58 points). And as a result they will redo their language test, or their spouse will assess their language skills and diplomas. So with time they get higher points on EE stream.
This process is happening all over the year. (you can even see some people saying in some threads how they were on those points and now they are better off).

What I am saying that every year you will have next fresh batch of international students graduates which will undergo the same process as I have just described.

So unless the rules will be change, where will be no such thing as a system cleared of international students.

Now your thinking is that there is some kind of huge backlog of older students, which once cleared up will push the points down. Unfortunately that is not correct.

Check upon the statistic that was released since EE is operating. Those "backlogers" were in the system all the time (at very least they poured in shortly after the system was activated). We have here something that is running 2 years and in that time students started circulating as anybody else before and also creating pressure on the system. It is just, that before they did have 15 or 30 points less.

In addition people who did not have access to additional 50 points now got them (LMIA extempt closed work permits). But again most of those people were already put in the system. So now they do have more points. And yes, LMIA value itself was cut down, which created just different point redistribution, but interestingly it pushed the top 1300 non PNP candidates to the higher score than before.

And again system in not static, all those people with more points claiming will be pouring in the system just as before.

So, unless you change the amount of picked non PNP applicants, the new min CRS limit will be around 470.
And with tendency to go up? Why? Simply because of the natality level in some countries is creating more and more applicants every year. With more applicants there will be higher presure for perfection of your own score.

And before point to PNP - they do have their own separate quota, so number of PNP in the system has almost no impact on the system (occasional sway of 2 to 3 points up if a higher batch of PNP is released, which will be corrected within 2 draws).

Damn dude u just crushed all my itsy bitsy hopes. Faaaaak

 

[Fizar]

Speculations with high riff

Draw 50th - 480
Draw 51st - 470
Draw 52nd - 460

Hopeful.

 

[Castillo]

Damn dude u just crushed all my itsy bitsy hopes. Faaaaak

Don't mind the guy, he didn't know wat he's sayng

 

[kryt0n]

Those graduates do not all of them fill in the EE at the certain date. (there is no such requirement there).
What they do instead (depending how is their life sitation), they decide at a certain point of life to get into EE stream (and that is different and depends on when they take their first language test and also when they fullfill the 1 year work criteria).
What also clearly happens that some start at lower EE score (you can see that all the time on this forum, people asking what are my chances if I have this or that score). Then they realise that they are too much below (for example just 1 language skill below CBL 9 have taken away 58 points). And as a result they will redo their language test, or their spouse will assess their language skills and diplomas. So with time they get higher points on EE stream.
This process is happening all over the year. (you can even see some people saying in some threads how they were on those points and now they are better off).

What I am saying that every year you will have next fresh batch of international students graduates which will undergo the same process as I have just described.

So unless the rules will be change, where will be no such thing as a system cleared of international students.

Now your thinking is that there is some kind of huge backlog of older students, which once cleared up will push the points down. Unfortunately that is not correct.

Check upon the statistic that was released since EE is operating. Those "backlogers" were in the system all the time (at very least they poured in shortly after the system was activated). We have here something that is running 2 years and in that time students started circulating as anybody else before and also creating pressure on the system. It is just, that before they did have 15 or 30 points less.

In addition people who did not have access to additional 50 points now got them (LMIA extempt closed work permits). But again most of those people were already put in the system. So now they do have more points. And yes, LMIA value itself was cut down, which created just different point redistribution, but interestingly it pushed the top 1300 non PNP candidates to the higher score than before.

And again system in not static, all those people with more points claiming will be pouring in the system just as before.

So, unless you change the amount of picked non PNP applicants, the new min CRS limit will be around 470.
And with tendency to go up? Why? Simply because of the natality level in some countries is creating more and more applicants every year. With more applicants there will be higher presure for perfection of your own score.

And before point to PNP - they do have their own separate quota, so number of PNP in the system has almost no impact on the system (occasional sway of 2 to 3 points up if a higher batch of PNP is released, which will be corrected within 2 draws).

I've been on this forum for 2 years and in the pool since ee started. I have seen dozens of posts that the draw won't go below 800. It won't go below 500. I saw posts where people went crazy that it dropped to 450. None of this was predicted and none of this was planned. Lots of posts declared that anyone below xxx didn't stand a chance, but one or two draws later they were proved wrong.

We have no idea how it will go. All we can do, if we want Canada badly enough, is try and increase our points or build Canadian connections.

 

[vensak]

Damn dude u just crushed all my itsy bitsy hopes. Faaaaak

Score can go down if they significantly increase number of ITA. All we know for know is 2017 quota (app. 74k immigrants - which is app 35 applications per year). We still do not know how many will go through EE (also there shall be no new non PNP applicants in the paper based system anymore).

 

[dr.psr]

@467 and for last 6 month thats i have been reading this forum, i have deduced few things
1. We know fakiyng nothing
2. Ircc is biatych
3. I am Batman.
And Castillo's argument actually makes sense. But who am i to judge.

 

[vensak]

I've been on this forum for 2 years and in the pool since ee started. I have seen dozens of posts that the draw won't go below 800. It won't go below 500. I saw posts where people went crazy that it dropped to 450. None of this was predicted and none of this was planned. Lots of posts declared that anyone below xxx didn't stand a chance, but one or two draws later they were proved wrong.

We have no idea how it will go. All we can do, if we want Canada badly enough, is try and increase our points or build Canadian connections.

Being at certain point level and passively sitting and waiting to get ITA is not a good strategy if you are below certain range.
If you check the history of all draws (quantities and points needed), you will find out slow increasing tendency. That naturally happened as more people have understood the system and work on their points.

Immigrating to Canada is kind of a business, where the demand is higher than offer. It is also not regulated "market" where only one side (seller) is setting out the rules. It is logical that the seller side wants to get more benefit before selling off the product. That is why people who "invested" more money into Canadian dream are preffered.
What is sold here is - study in Canada for 2 years in order to get your Master done and then work on PGWP for 2 years (it takes time to find job, so most people can hit 2 years). And you will cash like 70 bonus points. And on the top you do not have to worry with CBL 9 (transferability is covered with studies and work in Canada).
That is what they want. And what is left over are few cherries of people who can manage it (long time expats, PhD or Master top applicants or PNP).

That is where everything is slowly set up.