Ray of Hope - 46th Draw

[viralharia]

I am already eligible. EE profile created and submitted.
Are you sure this won't make a difference in CRS score?

Yes. Sure about it. Because my mother's brother is a Canadian Citizen and I didn't get any extra CRS Points.

 

[Ascent]

If draws happens after every 2 weeks

Nov 2, 465 CRS with 1800 ITAs
Nov 16, 457 CRS with 1800 ITAs
Nov 30, 453 CRS with 2100 ITAs
Dec 14, 450 CRS with 2000 ITAs
Dec 28, 449 CRS with 2250 ITAs

I doubt there would be a draw on 28th of Dec. As mostly its holiday season across Canada until 1st week of January.

 

[astralsource]

Quote from: thourb on October 19, 2016, 10:01:40 am
[/quote]I posted a bit of an analysis in another thread which I don't think can be far off on the basis of this draw:

Historically, on the data we have available, we know that 60% of ITAs go to those with PNPs or LMIAs. This is on the basis that there is an average 1350 ITAs given per draw (this is all based on 2015 data). So per draw we can expect 810 (on average) LMIA/PNP holders will get nomination. Thus in today's draw, I won't have been far off my estimates (likely a few hundred out) - 1800 ITAs of which 800 approx PNP/LMIA and approximately 1000 non LMIA/PNP. It's actually fairly likely that there were fewer LMIA/PNP in this draw (perhaps only half of the 810 average) due to this draw being only one week on from the previous draw. If that were the case then my guess is probably spot on - 1800 ITAs, 1400 of which have no PNP, 1000 in the 480s and 500 in the 470s.

On this basis, if we get another draw of around 1800 in a fortnight I would expect that 800 of those would be 600+, very few in the 480's (I expect no more than 60) and then perhaps around 900-1000 (around half of my earlier estimate now that much of any backlog has been cleared) in the 470s. All in all, if we get another draw of 1800 I expect scores to mostly clear the 470s and CRS will be in the range 469-472. If CRS drops down to 1500 I can't see it going below 472.

Will be really interested to see whether this rudimentary estimation that I've made based on very approximate data has any standing in reality, but on the basis of this past draw I'm pretty much spot on to what I'd expected.
[/quote]

wasnt there an announcement for giving a higher quota for provinces?

 

[thestunner316]

congrats to everyone who recd an ITA... man im a little disappointed, had predicted 471 points, cut off was 472 LOL

next draw i think will drop to 468 with around 2200 ITAs... thats what the crystal ball says (it looks a little foggy though ha ha )

 

[samanta60]

congrats to everyone who recd an ITA... man im a little disappointed, had predicted 471 points, cut off was 472 LOL

next draw i think will drop to 468 with around 2200 ITAs... thats what the crystal ball says (it looks a little foggy though ha ha )

I was 472 and received ITA yesterday. I was expecting the score go down to 468 or so for yesterday draw. It seems there were more people sitting on 472,473 and 474 than what I thought (accumulated from I guess 14 previous draws). But for next draw I am sure score will go further down. You will be fine don't worry.

 

[ssiddharthsuresh]

Hoping that it would drop to 468 or lower for the next one. Been waiting since August and need to secure an ITA soon and get my AOR for a BOWP since my PGWP is expiring in February 2017. Keeping my fingers crossed and as always my hopes high as well.

 

[msmahmood]

Hoping that it would drop to 468 or lower for the next one. Been waiting since August and need to secure an ITA soon and get my AOR for a BOWP since my PGWP is expiring in February 2017. Keeping my fingers crossed and as always my hopes high as well.

Same boat, my PGWP is expiring December 31st. Waiting on 469.

 

[egoo45]

Man that's cutting it close. I wish you luck my friend!

Same boat, my PGWP is expiring December 31st. Waiting on 469.

 

[msmahmood]

Man that's cutting it close. I wish you luck my friend!

Thanks, and you too with your PNP.
Aside from an ITA on my own, I am also waiting for OINP nomination, its been almost 2.5 months since AOR.

 

[DamhaSirah]

Decline the ITA get the mistake corrected you will receive one in next draw

If there is no change in your CRS score then change it and write a letter of explanation regarding this situation (that your consultant made a mistake and whatnot). It is fine as long as your score wasn't affected.

Cheers

Thanks for responding. The NOC in my profile is that of another job (research assistant in a university, 30 hours every week, 1+ year) which I did later on in my career in a different organization. I have all proper documents for the NOC job (experience letter, salary slips). This "Cash Management Officer / Officer Production Planning and Scheduling" job was another full time paid job in another organization which I did earlier on in my career for 2 years.

 

[patricia9]

Hello Friends,

I am waiting at 467 and have been in pool for almost a year now. I am about to lose 5 point due to age next month mid Dec, I am just hoping and praying to get ITA before that.
Just wanted to clarify one point, is the CRS on the day of ITA considered for processing?

Thanks

 

[DamhaSirah]

Hello Friends,

I am waiting at 467 and have been in pool for almost a year now. I am about to lose 5 point due to age next month mid Dec, I am just hoping and praying to get ITA before that.
Just wanted to clarify one point, is the CRS on the day of ITA considered for processing?

Thanks

Yes indeed. +1 please if you found my reply helpful!

 

[rabzodemorayh]

So DamhaSirah will you decline the ITA? or have you?

Thanks for responding. The NOC in my profile is that of another job (research assistant in a university, 30 hours every week, 1+ year) which I did later on in my career in a different organization. I have all proper documents for the NOC job (experience letter, salary slips). This "Cash Management Officer / Officer Production Planning and Scheduling" job was another full time paid job in another organization which I did earlier on in my career for 2 years.

 

[DamhaSirah]

So DamhaSirah will you decline the ITA? or have you?

My consultant says to go ahead with the application and give a LOE for the discrepancy/error.

 

[DamhaSirah]

People who got their ITAs in the 45th and 46th draws (19th Oct and 2nd Nov 2016), please update your application status on this tracking sheet:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Jv71c_oQA0B5dZGivtGQCjXesWSgCWHlj1TpyLOpsxo/edit?ts=582012e9#gid=0