Ray of Hope - 44th Draw

[DamhaSirah]

Cut off score won't be 481 or lower unless they do a 5000+ ITA mega draw. 481 is extremely easy to obtain... There's a reason that the lowest score has been 482 for quite a while.

My personal speculation that about half of them is 481 - just because the age group 20-30 is big, but CLB 10 is not easy for everyone to obtain
So 1300-1400 ppl with 481
and the draw should be about 2000 to bottleneck them.

Please don't forget that not everyone can score CLB 10 in IELTS, and not everyone in the general pool who is single and below 30 years of age can have 18 years of education.

To reassure myself, I looked at all previous draws since January 2015. I think there cannot be too many of us in the 480-482 score range (if you look at previous draws with scores below 480, you can easily see that few people get such high CRS scores of 480-482 because many people with even a low score of 450 have been issued ITAs in the past when ITA numbers were ~200 higher than at present).

If they raise the number of ITAs to 1,800, we have a good chance InshAllah, which I think they will do at some point - they earlier said they would raise the number of ITAs in Fall 2016 and so far they have been true to their word. I think they may even raise the number of ITAs to a record level (more than 1,600).

And another thing, logically speaking they cannot reach their immigration targets if they continue to give only 700-1300 ITAs in every draw. They will InshAllah raise their number of ITAs soon, cutoff scores are bound to fall InshAllah.

Keep your hopes up guys and gals!

 

[thestunner316]

Please don't forget that not everyone can score CLB 10 in IELTS, and not everyone in the general pool who is single and below 30 years of age can have 18 years of education.

To reassure myself, I looked at all previous draws since January 2015. I think there cannot be too many of us in the 480-482 score range (if you look at previous draws with scores below 480, you can easily see that few people get such high CRS scores of 480-482 because many people with even a low score of 450 have been issued ITAs in the past when ITA numbers were ~200 higher than at present).

If they raise the number of ITAs to 1,800, we have a good chance InshAllah, which I think they will do at some point - they earlier said they would raise the number of ITAs in Fall 2016 and so far they have been true to their word. I think they may even raise the number of ITAs to a record level (more than 1,600).

And another thing, logically speaking they cannot reach their immigration targets if they continue to give only 700-1300 ITAs in every draw. They will InshAllah raise their number of ITAs soon, cutoff scores are bound to fall InshAllah.

Keep your hopes up guys and gals!

agree with most of you all... i cannot imagine 5000 people on the same score lol...
my crystal ball says 1500 ITAs will be sent on 5th otober, cut off will be around 478 or 479...
there have been lots of OINP nominations also in the last 2 weeks, FYI

 

[Sluffy]

And another thing, logically speaking they cannot reach their immigration targets if they continue to give only 700-1300 ITAs in every draw. They will InshAllah raise their number of ITAs soon, cutoff scores are bound to fall InshAllah.

On July 1, they have already admitted 50k of people and the quota was 58.4K for economic stream.
That's why they reduced the number of ITAs in draws - not to exceed the quota but still proceed PNP and LMIA

 

[DamhaSirah]

On July 1, they have already admitted 50k of people and the quota was 58.4K for economic stream.
That's why they reduced the number of ITAs in draws - not to exceed the quota but still proceed PNP and LMIA

We are now in October so we are talking about quotas for 2017, not 2016. 2017 quotas are now being filled since anyone who gets an ITA after August cannot land in Canada in 2016, they will land in 2017 instead.

 

[Sluffy]

I think there cannot be too many of us in the 480-482 score range (if you look at previous draws with scores below 480, you can easily see that few people get such high CRS scores of 480-482 because many people with even a low score of 450 have been issued ITAs in the past when ITA numbers were ~200 higher than at present).

Since May people with score 480-481 have never been selected. It means that they are sitting in the pool since that time. This 200 ITAs were to clear them every draw: 200 cleared, 200 new came for the new draw. 11 draws passed, how many of them are sitting there now?

 

[Sluffy]

We are now in October so we are talking about quotas for 2017, not 2016. 2017 quotas are now being filled since anyone who gets an ITA after August cannot land in Canada in 2016, they will land in 2017 instead.

Quotas for 2017 have not been announced. They can be planned to decrease as well as to increase.

 

[DamhaSirah]

Since May people with score 480-481 have never been selected. It means that they are sitting in the pool since that time. This 200 ITAs were to clear them every draw: 200 cleared, 200 new came for the new draw. 11 draws passed, how many of them are sitting there now?

I felt the same too, but if you see all the draws since January 2015, your calculation falls apart. The number of people entering the pool with any score at all (let alone 480-482) is not proportional to anything.

 

[DamhaSirah]

Quotas for 2017 have not been announced. They can be planned to decrease as well as increase.

All the same, they are still drawing from 2017 quotas (whenever the quotas get announced) since people receiving ITAs now will be landing in Canada in 2017...

 

[Sluffy]

All the same, they are still drawing from 2017 quotas (whenever the quotas get announced) since people receiving ITAs now will be landing in Canada in 2017...

So what is the quota if it is not announced?
They are pretty careful when using previous year quotas.
Till quota was announced in March 2016, they used the numbers for 2015. After it had been announced, they started to cut off the draws dramatically.

 

[Sluffy]

I felt the same too, but if you see all the draws since January 2015, your calculation falls apart. The number of people entering the pool with any score at all (let alone 480-482) is not proportional to anything.

It's pretty easy to calculate
470+ with the draws 1000 ITAs
482_ with the draws 750 ITAS
so 250 people 470-481 every two weeks in average
And this number is unlikely to decrease. People with high score continue to come because they see the have decent chances to be selected.

 

[thestunner316]

It's pretty easy to calculate
470+ with the draws 1000 ITAs
482_ with the draws 750 ITAS
so 250 people 470-481 every two weeks in average
And this number is unlikely to decrease. People with high score continue to come because they see the have decent chances to be selected.

yes but a lot of them already wuold have recd PNPs also...
lets wait and see this wednesday. should be interesting.

 

[Sluffy]

yes but a lot of them already wuold have recd PNPs also...
lets wait and see this wednesday. should be interesting.

It does not matter. For many programs they have to create EE profile before applying to PNP.
Waiting for at least 2-3-4 months for PNP or sitting since May for 5 months - it's personal choice.
And many programs filled their quotas in May already with minor exclusions. Plus list of jobs in many provinces - not everyone can apply.
But you are right, it's gonna be one of the interesting draws of this year)

 

[fatani]

Please don't forget that not everyone can score CLB 10 in IELTS, and not everyone in the general pool who is single and below 30 years of age can have 18 years of education.

To reassure myself, I looked at all previous draws since January 2015. I think there cannot be too many of us in the 480-482 score range (if you look at previous draws with scores below 480, you can easily see that few people get such high CRS scores of 480-482 because many people with even a low score of 450 have been issued ITAs in the past when ITA numbers were ~200 higher than at present).

If they raise the number of ITAs to 1,800, we have a good chance InshAllah, which I think they will do at some point - they earlier said they would raise the number of ITAs in Fall 2016 and so far they have been true to their word. I think they may even raise the number of ITAs to a record level (more than 1,600).

And another thing, logically speaking they cannot reach their immigration targets if they continue to give only 700-1300 ITAs in every draw. They will InshAllah raise their number of ITAs soon, cutoff scores are bound to fall InshAllah.

Keep your hopes up guys and gals!

To damha sirah and sluffy and all of you out in the forum, Damha sirah if you had spouse whose education is masters and english level CLB 9 you would have easily got ITA by now because it would have given you 484 points

100 for your age
126 for your education
128 for your english
10 for spouse education
20 for spouse english
100 for skills transfer

Total 484, people out here are crying for 481 points mark but a person with a spouse having masters degree and CLB 9 english can go upto 484 points and in this range looking at current conditions the ITA is guaranteed in next 1 or 2 draws. Even if the spouse education is bachelors with english CLB 9 Which is more likely achieveable than CLB 10 the score a person can get is 482 points which is the current cut off and was the cut off in some of the past draws since may june 2016.

 

[anubhavsr]

To damha sirah and sluffy and all of you out in the forum, Damha sirah if you had spouse whose education is masters and english level CLB 9 you would have easily got ITA by now because it would have given you 484 points

100 for your age
126 for your education
128 for your english
10 for spouse education
20 for spouse english
100 for skills transfer

Total 484, people out here are crying for 481 points mark but a person with a spouse having masters degree and CLB 9 english can go upto 484 points and in this range looking at current conditions the ITA is guaranteed in next 1 or 2 draws. Even if the spouse education is bachelors with english CLB 9 Which is more likely achieveable than CLB 10 the score a person can get is 482 points which is the current cut off and was the cut off in some of the past draws since may june 2016.

Do you have sufficient reason to believe that Damha sirah or all the single people at 481 out there "after seeing your post" would consider getting married?

 

[Canada2425]

https://www.welcomebc.ca/Immigrate-to-B-C/B-C-Provincial-Nominee-Program/Invitations-to-Apply

If this is true, can we assume that in 43rd Draw, ~240 express entry invitations were issued coz of BC nominations?
Any thoughts?

240 is a good number resulting in higher number of 600+ CRS invitations. I consider it positive for 44th draw (only if no province issues such invitations in two days).