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Ray of Hope - 139th Draw

Wrath

Hero Member
Nov 3, 2019
236
87
Toronto
Category........
CEC
I think you're being a bit dramatic here. Not all of those students will intend to stay, nor does it mean they'll have the requisite points when all other factors are considered. A Bachelor, 1 year Canadian experience (if they got a full-time permanent qualified position straight out of university), and max language results only gets to 474. That could potentially become 524 if their employer keeps them on. But I think we'll be sitting around 470-475 for the foreseeable future.... with the occasional dip to high 460s if we're very lucky.
Yeah!!! This makes more sense. In my opinion it will be around 475 - 479.
 

Issygn

Hero Member
Feb 16, 2020
448
158
I m waiting at 467 since 10feb (ielts 8.5,8.5, 7, 7.5) , 2 or more degree, crossed 30 in dec :( or it would hve been 472. Iqas took too much time.
Is there any chances for 467 this month?? NOC 2171
If there’s no b2b draw before the FST draw then we can kiss goodbye to the 460’s. You almost got CLB 10 !!! Why not try harder and at least sit on 470?
you just might be lucky
 

Canex17

Star Member
Feb 26, 2020
87
38
Then your prediction for next draw is 472 ?
If they maintain 3900+ ITAs for the next few draws I think, in the short-term, it is likely we will see the cutoff drop by a point per draw or, at the very least, remain relatively static. The only time it has been higher than 472 was after the FST in September (475) and after the 3 week gap before the first January draw (473). It's been bouncing around between 469-472 otherwise.
 

prax2012

Member
Feb 12, 2020
14
3
If there’s no b2b draw before the FST draw then we can kiss goodbye to the 460’s. You almost got CLB 10 !!! Why not try harder and at least sit on 470?
you just might be lucky
dont have any more patience left to study n give IELTS again. Also ielts is quite unpredictable these days. That was my best shot i guess. i m happy with CLB 10 in 3 modules :)
 

prax2012

Member
Feb 12, 2020
14
3
"ESTIMATED" distribution of candidates above 450 on 3rd March 2020

candidates above 450
5321​
crs
471​
lamda
0.0833​
Distribution of candidates having CRS above 450
crs scorenumber of candidates
having corresponding CRS score
cumulative no of candidates
above corresponding CRS score
450179822473
451165420675
452152219021
453140017499
454128816099
455118514810
456109013625
457100312535
45892311532
45984910609
4607819761
4617188980
4626618261
4636087600
4645596992
4655156432
4664745918
4674365444
4684015009
4693694608
4703394239
4713123900
4722873588
4732643301
4742433037
4752242794
4762062570
4771892365
4781742175
4791602001
4801471841
4811361694
4821251558
4831151434
4841061319
485971213
486891116
487821027
48876945
48970869
490-600232800
>600568568


with this, even with 4500 ITA, the score would have dropped to 469 not much.. :(
@psawardekar , from where you got this data. this is helpful if its true..unfortunately we cannot freeze the new profile entering pool, most of which are above 470 it seems
 

Canada2628

Member
Feb 10, 2020
17
12
The system may allow a discrepency because it doesn't specify exact dates, but once your application reaches an assessing officer you have to be able to display the full 3 years of qualified experience prior to the date you apply. You'd need 10 months in your current job to hit 36 from the info you have provided. So in July.

Jan 21 2017 - Jan 21 2018 = 12 months
April 19 2018 - March 19 2019 = 11 months
April 15 2019 - July 15 2019 = 3 months
September 1 2019 - July 1 2020 = 10 months
Means If I get ITA then I should wait till I complete my 3 years of experience
 

psawardekar

Full Member
Jan 20, 2020
25
31
Thank you.. but is it really possible to add spouse accompanying later on once i get ITA??

Get into the pool with spouse non-accompanying, get the ITA, wait for spouse IELTS, and update PR application to spouse accompanying if the new score > your current score?
 

psawardekar

Full Member
Jan 20, 2020
25
31
It is an estimate... Not true number... I have tracked down the CRS scored and number of candidates for past 15 draws and found The number of candidates follow two parameter exponential distribution .. with lambda aloways varying between 0.077- 0.083 ≈0.08 ... Using which i extrapolated these figures.. I may be wrong.. but it helps to visualise what is happening on 450-500 score range...


@psawardekar , from where you got this data. this is helpful if its true..unfortunately we cannot freeze the new profile entering pool, most of which are above 470 it seems
 
Last edited:

tapperb

Hero Member
Jan 10, 2020
916
236
It is an estimate... Not true number... I have tracked down the CRS scored and number of candidates for past 15 draws and found The number of candidates follow two parameter exponential distribution .. with lambda aloways varying between 0.077- 0.083 ≈0.008 ... Using which i extrapolated these figures.. I may be wrong.. but it helps to visualise what is happening on 450-500 score range...
This is good stuff. Are you in the data analytics field?
 

Canex17

Star Member
Feb 26, 2020
87
38
Means If I get ITA then I should wait till I complete my 3 years of experience
As far as I'm aware. If that's what you're claiming then that is what you have to be prepared to prove. Applying before you have the supporting evidence could result in the assessing officer rejecting your application and you would have to start all over again.