Ray of Hope - 138th Draw

[Newuser89]

Hi, I entered the pool today(3rd of March) and got a score of 482. Will I be part of the draw scheduled for tomorrow. Or is it too late and will only be part of the next draw.

 

[WinnerFFF]

Hi, I entered the pool today(3rd of March) and got a score of 482. Will I be part of the draw scheduled for tomorrow. Or is it too late and will only be part of the next draw.

Lol...I am in the same situation and just asked the same question. The experienced guys here said yes

 

[Newuser89]

Lol...I am in the same situation and just asked the same question. The experienced guys here said yes

Sounds good. Thanks. Wish you good luck.

 

[Issygn]

Sounds good. And I don't think I can refuse to do it either lol.

Funny

 

[Igethope]

Looking out for this professor calculation @psawardekar

being a statistics professor .. I tried to model the distribution of candidates scores in the pool and it consistently follows exponential distribution with lambda= 0.078~0.079.. this is considering only the candidates above 450 as below 450 distribution is not considered.

with this you can calculate the number of people above you with the formula:

"number of people above a given CRS = (total number of people above 450)* exp^(-lambda*(CRS-450))"


eg: for current situation(crs of 470)

number of people above 470 = (536+21116)* exp^(-0.07785*(470-450)) = 4503.59 .....

for last draw:
number of people above 472 = (439+19861)* exp^(-0.0795*(472-450)) = 3531

n so on....
the value of the lambda varies between 0.0076 to 0.080 from draw to draw.


what it also says that means is,
number of people above me(crs = 468) are = (536+21116)* exp^(-0.0785*(468-450))=~ 5270~5300

out of this, 4500 are above 470 who got invited today. that means there are only 750~800 candidates left in front of me today..
So I hope that less than 3700 new candidates join the pool above 468 in the next 2 weeks... so I could see a bright Ray of Hope...

 

[Mehsaz]

Looking out for this professor calculation @psawardekar

being a statistics professor .. I tried to model the distribution of candidates scores in the pool and it consistently follows exponential distribution with lambda= 0.078~0.079.. this is considering only the candidates above 450 as below 450 distribution is not considered.

with this you can calculate the number of people above you with the formula:

"number of people above a given CRS = (total number of people above 450)* exp^(-lambda*(CRS-450))"


eg: for current situation(crs of 470)

number of people above 470 = (536+21116)* exp^(-0.07785*(470-450)) = 4503.59 .....

for last draw:
number of people above 472 = (439+19861)* exp^(-0.0795*(472-450)) = 3531

n so on....
the value of the lambda varies between 0.0076 to 0.080 from draw to draw.


what it also says that means is,
number of people above me(crs = 468) are = (536+21116)* exp^(-0.0785*(468-450))=~ 5270~5300

out of this, 4500 are above 470 who got invited today. that means there are only 750~800 candidates left in front of me today..
So I hope that less than 3700 new candidates join the pool above 468 in the next 2 weeks... so I could see a bright Ray of Hope...

 

[PinalThakkar]

Are there any chances of scores coming down to 464 before FST in May, if the draw will continue for 4500 invitations?

 

[zee90999]

Are there any chances of scores coming down to 464 before FST in May, if the draw will continue for 4500 invitations?

Bright

 

[Vazi]

What is the maximum upper fluctuation we can witness in tomorrows draw ?

 

[Vazi]

What is the maximum upper fluctuation we can witness in tomorrows draw ?

 

[Sandeep198511]

With my experience take this advice, forget about cut off getting reduced and do all that u can to increase your CRS...

 

[bharaarti]

Ill

Hey,
Honestly, 453 has no chance this year !! Even I’m at 451 and tried ielts 6 times to improve my score but no luck and going to learn French now ..

I would say try Ielts after prepping well.French is a longer route .If you max out Ielts how much additional score will you get ?

 

[smash1984]

Hi, I entered the pool today(3rd of March) and got a score of 482. Will I be part of the draw scheduled for tomorrow. Or is it too late and will only be part of the next draw.

I think you should be fine, 24 hours before the draw is usually a safe period to get into the pool.

 

[Saleemasif3088]

Guys above 470 are requested not to share their score. It creates panic for those at 469 and 468. Lol. However, this 4th March draw will clarify the intentions of IRCC. If its 4500 again, then its clear that they are positively trying to lower the cutoff for those who did every thing to cross 460. And it would be the last chance for 460s. In 2nd half of 2020, score would rise above 475 because to compensate these extra invitation, they will reduce ITAs. So I guess they are going to give a last chance to all those above 460 and then they will return to their normal routine. Best of luck for all the waiting candidates.

 

[indianstudent96]

Guys above 470 are requested not to share their score. It creates panic for those at 469 and 468. Lol. However, this 4th March draw will clarify the intentions of IRCC. If its 4500 again, then its clear that they are positively trying to lower the cutoff for those who did every thing to cross 460. And it would be the last chance for 460s. In 2nd half of 2020, score would rise above 475 because to compensate these extra invitation, they will reduce ITAs. So I guess they are going to give a last chance to all those above 460 and then they will return to their normal routine. Best of luck for all the waiting candidates.

Lol, closing your eyes does not make your problems disappear. In fact, getting to know how many candidates are ahead of you will give a better idea of where you stand. If there are many candidates with 470+ scores, the likelihood of lower cut-off is less. If you are panicking because of candidates with better scores than you, then it is your problem, not theirs. Ray of hope threads are supposed to give people real hope, not create a false illusion of safety. Right now, as it stands, any score below 470 is not safe. It is what it is. It could change in the upcoming draws, but please encourage people to boost their scores instead of asking them to wait and hope for the best. You are the only one who can control your destiny. It is pathetic that some candidates are starting to blame candidates with higher scores for their own problems. Nothing is better than a good competition. Honestly, Ray of Hope threads are becoming more of "Rants of Hopeless" because of people who complain without proposing any solutions. I wish you the best, I hope you understand that no one is trying to cause panic here.