Ray of Hope - 137th Draw

[13nitinsharma]

Congratulations who'll get the ITA today, please wait for 24 hours to get your ITA notification in your EE account.

 

[XSY_ghostlike]

Headcount in pool on Jan20:
CRS 450+: 778+19458 = 20236

Headcount in pool on Jan31:
CRS 450+: 439+19861 = 20300

So within 11 days, 20300-20236+3400 = 3464 people enters the pool with CRS 450+.
Assuming the rate is constant, within 14 days, 3463/11*14 = 4409 people enters the pool.

This number is much higher than any 2-week interval from last year, even without significant increase in PNP(600+) headcount.

The picture should be clear now.

 

[abbieh]

Headcount in pool on Jan20:
CRS 450+: 778+19458 = 20236

Headcount in pool on Jan31:
CRS 450+: 439+19861 = 20300

So within 11 days, 20300-20236+3400 = 3464 people enters the pool with CRS 450+.
Assuming the rate is constant, within 14 days, 3463/11*14 = 4409 people enters the pool.

This number is much higher than any 2-week interval from last year, even without significant increase in PNP(600+) headcount.

The picture should be clear now.

Lost out today with a score of 471

Tired, exhausted and feel like giving up

 

[indianstudent96]

This is my analysis here:

After the 136th draw, 2622 candidates with the scores of 471 and above but below 600 got their ITAs. I got this number by subtracting the number of candidates with scores above 600 from the number of ITAs (3400-778 = 2622). Note: Not all candidates with the score of 471 were invited due to it being the minimum score, so it's safe to assume all 2622 candidates had scores in the range of 472-600.

After this draw (137th) draw, 3061 candidates with the scores of 472 and above but below 600 got their ITAs. Again, doing the math here gives us a number of 3061 (3500-439). Note: Not all candidates with the score of 472 were invited due it being the cut-off score, so it's safe to assume all these candidates had scores in the range of 473-600.

What does this mean for everyone here? Since last draw, 3061 candidates managed to increase their score or created a new profile with a better score than last draw's cut-off of 471.

Will the score go down in the future? It can only go down if the influx of new candidates with high scores goes down. I doubt that's going to happen anytime soon. So, it's time for everyone to improve their scores instead of hoping for lower cut-off scores.

 

[Ramsha Bukhari]

Headcount in pool on Jan20:
CRS 450+: 778+19458 = 20236

Headcount in pool on Jan31:
CRS 450+: 439+19861 = 20300

So within 11 days, 20300-20236+3400 = 3464 people enters the pool with CRS 450+.
Assuming the rate is constant, within 14 days, 3463/11*14 = 4409 people enters the pool.

This number is much higher than any 2-week interval from last year, even without significant increase in PNP(600+) headcount.

The picture should be clear now.

Also, this was the lowest number of PnP's for this year.The OINP nominees of Jan draw will be coming up from the next draw.

 

[stevogooner]

Lost out today with a score of 471

Tired, exhausted and feel like giving up

If you are thinking of giving up , what about us who have 457

 

[Wrath]

Lost out today with a score of 471

Tired, exhausted and feel like giving up

Me too ...am shocked really...looks 475s is only a safe score in coming draws

 

[seadrag0n]

Lost out today with a score of 471

Tired, exhausted and feel like giving up

What's your NOC? Maybe you can get an OINP NOI in the future. Looks like that is the only hope for me at 469.

 

[Raziz]

Will the score come down to 470 in the next draw ?

 

[Tanglechuu]

The system gave me 481 points based on 3 years of foreign work experience, but I'm actually sitting at 2 years and 10 months now. Should I decline my ITA till I actually reach 3 years of work experience?

Your score will decrease by 12 points if you lose that year, so yes you should decline as that will put you under the minimum score for this round. Luckily you will be called again as it's a high CRS score. They do have a calculator in the application where you can make changes and test how they affect your score, so you can confirm for yourself. (You can still decline after checking this)

You should probably change in your profile to reflect that you only have 2 years experience until you get the third year. Otherwise this will happen every draw.

I also wonder if it's possible to just get the ITS and wait to submit the application until you have 3 years? But that seems riskier, better to wait until the three years is finished to get ITA.

 

[Shawan]

This is my analysis here:

After the 136th draw, 2622 candidates with the scores of 471 and above but below 600 got their ITAs. I got this number by subtracting the number of candidates with scores above 600 from the number of ITAs (3400-778 = 2622). Note: Not all candidates with the score of 471 were invited due to it being the minimum score, so it's safe to assume all 2622 candidates had scores in the range of 472-600.

After this draw (137th) draw, 3061 candidates with the scores of 472 and above but below 600 got their ITAs. Again, doing the math here gives us a number of 3061 (3500-439). Note: Not all candidates with the score of 472 were invited due it being the cut-off score, so it's safe to assume all these candidates had scores in the range of 473-600.

What does this mean for everyone here? Since last draw, 3061 candidates managed to increase their score or created a new profile with a better score than last draw's cut-off of 471.

Will the score go down in the future? It can only go down if the influx of new candidates with high scores goes down. I doubt that's going to happen anytime soon. So, it's time for everyone to improve their scores instead hoping for lower cut-off scores.

Agree fully.

 

[visaapplicant]

The system gave me 481 points based on 3 years of foreign work experience, but I'm actually sitting at 2 years and 10 months now. Should I decline my ITA till I actually reach 3 years of work experience?

It happened to us too. We got invite even at 11 months for CEC. We declined the invitation since technically we didn't meet the eligibility for CEC yet on that invite. If you will still get the minimum score for today's draw considering your ACTUAL years of experience, don't decline. But if no, then I believe you have to.

 

[visaapplicant]

I got my ITA right after the system announced the point. A long journey from 451 to 474 with the help of 2 year working exp. Good luck everyone!

Congratulations! I am still waiting for ours

 

[indianstudent96]

Those who are with scores less than the current cut-off scores, PNP is your option. Most candidates with 600+ score did not have the cut-off scores at one point. So, getting a PNP will boost a mediocre score of 430 to 1030. So, hope is not entirely lost for you all. I am guessing most of these 470+ candidates are concentrated in the range of 473-476 right now. So, high 470s should be ideal for next few months, but you never know, a FST draw could happen and screw even the ones with 470-479 score. The last time a FST draw happened after the new year, the cut-off score went from 450 to 475 and it never dropped to 450 ever again. Watch out for it.

 

[dyllee]

The system gave me 481 points based on 3 years of foreign work experience, but I'm actually sitting at 2 years and 10 months now. Should I decline my ITA till I actually reach 3 years of work experience?

I'm also in the same boat, sitting at 493 the system gave me for apparently 2 years Canadian work experience even though I'm on 1 year and 10 months...