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Ray of Hope - 135th Draw

ClarkeS

Star Member
May 12, 2018
133
51
I received PR when I was 12. I am now 27. My family did not maintain residency obligations and I am too old now to file any type of appeal so I am trying to re-apply through the EE.

I only just found out that I already had PR after I submitted to the EE. I need to be able to go between the US and Canada since I work in the US so I mailed out an PR renouncement form to have that freedom of travel.
If you already have PR then why renounce it only to apply for PR again? Why wouldn't you be able to travel freely with PR?
 

mudjawd

Hero Member
Sep 9, 2013
255
106
Toronto
Category........
CEC
Job Offer........
Yes
AOR Received.
09th August
my score is 468 and I am the primary applicant. my wife is planning to take IELTS soon by putting very minimal effort and we intend to get 5.5 in most or maybe a max 6 across. does the spouse IELTS needs to be at a minimum level to get any points. I checked in the CRA tool and with approx 5.5 across all 4 areas she still got 6 points. She is trying her best in this week to study so she can raise her score even higher but wanted to check that even if with less score it will be considered as it helps raise my score to 476.

Worst case I'll have to get her graduation assessed but looks like a long wait as her college in India is a govt college and pretty lazy folks run it.
 

WarHammer

Hero Member
May 17, 2018
228
157
Question about timelines because my work permit expires in less than a month. So it's ITA-> sending application-> AOR?
Where does the health check fit in? If it's before AOR, I'm worried it will take too long before my WP expires and I can't take advantage of implied status...
In your flow chart, health check slots in between ITA and sending of application. Meaning your doc visit has to be completed before submitting your application.
 

XSY_ghostlike

Star Member
Nov 2, 2019
55
33
The next cutline will be 472-473 on Jan 22nd.
The calculation is about the same as my previous post:
https://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/threads/ray-of-hope-134th-draw.669700/page-8

Just to be more intuitive, let me introduce an idiot-proof way to predict the score:

Assuming the draw interval is constant 14 days, and flow-in rate is constant:
When ITA count is 3600, the equilibrium score is 471.
When ITA count is 3450, the equilibrium score is 472.
When ITA count is 3300, the equilibrium score is 473.

e.g, When the draw count stays at 3600, the score will keep going up/down until it reaches 471, and it will stays 471 after that.

I will recalibrate the equilibrium score after each draw, for continous accuracy.
 
Last edited:

tokalaangel

Star Member
Sep 18, 2019
51
4
If you already have PR then why renounce it only to apply for PR again? Why wouldn't you be able to travel freely with PR?

My family didn’t fulfill residence obligation, so if I enter Canada right, I would either get reported or have to stay in Canada for 2 years straight to fulfill the residency obligation before I can renew my status.
 

remedy3434

Member
Jan 8, 2020
14
6
i am 468 and will be 463 next month cause of the age. I hope for 2 more draws in january then maybe score go down like 465-466
 

remedy3434

Member
Jan 8, 2020
14
6
The next cutline will be 472-473 on Jan 22nd.
The calculation is about the same as my previous post:
https://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/threads/ray-of-hope-134th-draw.669700/page-8

Just to be more intuitive, let me introduce an idiot-proof way to predict the score:

Assuming the draw interval is constant 14 days, and flow-in rate is constant:
When ITA count is 3600, the equilibrium score is 471.
When ITA count is 3450, the equilibrium score is 472.
When ITA count is 3300, the equilibrium score is 473.

e.g, When the draw count stays at 3600, the score will keep going up/down until it reaches 471, and it will stays 471 after that.

I will recalibrate the equilibrium score after each draw, for continous accuracy.[/


what if they make a draw next week? what is your prediction for score ? because they made 3 draws in jan 2019 and 2017 i guess.
 

XSY_ghostlike

Star Member
Nov 2, 2019
55
33
It is highly unlikely that there will be a draw on 1/15/2020.
But if it happens, the cutline will be 467-468.

Keep in mind: the 460-468 (~600 people/score currently) has much much higher headcount density compared to 469-473 (~160 people/score currently).
 
Last edited:

mudjawd

Hero Member
Sep 9, 2013
255
106
Toronto
Category........
CEC
Job Offer........
Yes
AOR Received.
09th August
Fingers crossed
I'll be honest and practical. If you have not maxed out on points then do everything to increase it. I had 468 when I entered the pool in October mid and I could have given IELTS again and assuming I would just increase my listening from my earlier score of 7.5 to 8, it would have bumped my points to 475 (a whopping 7 point gain). I didn't do that and kept on hoping for 9 -10 weeks in a row up until now and where did that take me?? Nowhere. It is just the time I wasted on a hope whereas I could have easily prepped and got a score of 475 in November and not had to wait. Probably I'd be done with major part of my application by now.

This whole hope thing is good to have but I'd also supplement it with facts and reality to take the right steps. I am really new to the forum and I love the support structure hope offers but that's where it ends. Sorry for sounding harsh to anyone but I now feel that if I only I didn't hope and only acted on time.
 

mudjawd

Hero Member
Sep 9, 2013
255
106
Toronto
Category........
CEC
Job Offer........
Yes
AOR Received.
09th August
It is highly unlikely that there will be a draw on 1/15/2020.
But if it happens, the cutline will be 467-468.

Keep in mind: the 460-468 (~600 people/score currently) has much much higher headcount density compared to 469-473 (~160 people/score currently).
hello, Assuming a draw every 2 weeks and your earlier calculation, it is fair to assume that cutoff points won't fall below 471 for a long time (assuming 3600 draws).

Thanks.
 

callebe

Star Member
Oct 29, 2019
112
45
Hello guys, I'm currently at 468. My noc is 4021. Never lived in Canada. Any chances of any Nominations from Provinces? I checked them all during the completion of the profile.
 

mslat92

Member
Dec 3, 2019
13
0
Hey guys,

I literally submitted my application 2 hours before the draw, with the overall score of 474, which is higher than the lowest invited. My account says I am already a candidate; wondering if there is any more step I should do so as to get my application into the pool for real?
Hi there, can you please let us know if you do get an ITA. I may be in a similar position for the Jan 22 draw, where I could end up submitting the day of.