Possible Bad news:
I don't want to be a pessimist, but we have to admit that there are lots of people with CRS 471 in the pool. Even in the Internal CRS tracker, you can see more people with CRS 471. If one is below 30 yrs, got 2 or more degrees(I believe most of the masters' holders from India are getting two or more), 3 yrs of experience, single and CLB 9 (I have seen lots of people getting CLB 10 in L,R,S and CLB 9 in W, Either people are not getting CLB 9 or are getting CLB 10 in three modules with CLB 9 in 1), gives a CRS of 471. So I believe the CRS might just go down by a point to 471 in the next draw. In favourable case, it could go down to 470 as well. However, I don't think it will go below 470. For this, we just have to look at past trends.
In every draws after FST(with 4 weeks gap), the CRS has increased by 10 to 15 points, but after that, the score came down again at the same level as it was before FST draws. i.e decrease in 8 to 10 points and after that a decrease in 3 and 2 points were observed. However, the last draw score decreased by a mere 3 points (where it should have decreased by 10 minimum 5 points - looking at the past trends). So we cannot expect the draw after that to decrease by 3 points as well. (I will be really happy to be declared wrong by tomorrow's draw).
We also need to take into consideration the number of PNP applicant's. There were a large number of NOI's issued on June/July/August and these are being converted into nomination in November and December, and hence higher number of candidates with CRS 600 and above. So if this continues, meaning, if there are around 1200 to 1500 candidates with CRS 600 and above, that means only 2100 ITA's will be issued to people with CRS 460 to 600. It is quite apparent that around 4000 to 4200 candidates with CRS 450 to 600 are entering into the pool and only 2100 are being issued ITA. This means only back to back draws can clear out the pool.
Possible Good News:
There is a high probability that 3 draws are expected with a back to back on Dec 18, if this is the case then back to back has the capacity to decrease the CRS by at least 5 points. So we can expect the scores to go down to 462-463 by the end of the year.
Also, we cannot deny the possibility of having 4 more draws (27th Nov, Dec 4, Dec 11 and Dec 18), if this is the case the CRS could go down to 455. (let's pray for this to happen)
Takeaway:
Guys, we need to be prepared to deal with the possible bad news and be hopeful for the good news. I know the feeling when we have high hopes but things don't turn the way we expected it to be. So, guys, let's keep the realistic hope and do whatever it takes to make to Canada. What I found the most effective way is to not think about it at all. These things are outside our control so we cannot do anything about the number of candidates, draw size etc. What we can do is, just give yourself a break from CRS and stuff, focus on the stuff you can do to increase your CRS. Don't let Express entry be a reason for anxiety.
, and congrats to all other fellows who got ITA just now~