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Ray of Hope - 123rd Draw

shivamtiwari93

shivamtiwari93

Star Member
Feb 13, 2019
56
33
30
New Delhi
Pre-Assessed..
Yes
Hey everyone!

There is one principal issue that I have with the way things are going. Please help me understand this.

Canada has an immigration target of 330800 out of which 191,600 is from ExpressEntry (FSW, FST, etc) and PNP. Source: https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/notices/supplementary-immigration-levels-2019.html

ITAs issued under Express Entry till date: 49,000 Source: https://www.cicnews.com/2019/07/large-july-24-express-entry-draw-sees-another-3600-candidates-invited-to-apply-for-canadian-permanent-residence-0712542.html#gs.vdkj4l

So basically this means in the next 10 draws before the end of the year additional 191600 - 49000 = 142600 ITAs need to be issued
Assuming biweekly draw, size of each draw would be 142600/10 = 14260 ITAs per draw!!!!
Assuming draws in all weeks, size of each draw would be 142600/20 = 7130 ITAs per draw!!!!

And yet we see IRCC skipping draws. It just doesn't add up. Is there anyone who has a better insight into the situation?
 
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shivarora

Full Member
Jun 27, 2019
25
2
does secondary applicant birthday have an impact on overall crs score? I am secondary applicant and have a birthday in september.
 
V

vgm10689

Full Member
May 29, 2019
30
7
shivamtiwari93 said:
Hey everyone!

There is one principal issue that I have with the way things are going. Please help me understand this.

Canada has an immigration target of 330800 out of which 191,600 is from ExpressEntry (FSW, FST, etc) and PNP. Source: https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/notices/supplementary-immigration-levels-2019.html

ITAs issued under Express Entry till date: 49,000 Source: https://www.cicnews.com/2019/07/large-july-24-express-entry-draw-sees-another-3600-candidates-invited-to-apply-for-canadian-permanent-residence-0712542.html#gs.vdkj4l

So basically this means in the next 10 draws before the end of the year additional 191600 - 49000 = 142600 ITAs need to be issued
Assuming biweekly draw, size of each draw would be 142600/10 = 14260 ITAs per draw!!!!
Assuming draws in all weeks, size of each draw would be 142600/20 = 7130 ITAs per draw!!!!

And yet we see IRCC skipping draws. It just doesn't add up. Is there anyone who has a better insight into the situation?
Click to expand...

Not all PNP candidates go through express entry system. Those that are linked to the express entry system will receive from the federal or provincial draws which invite the majority of the PNP candidates. Atleast that's me haphazard understanding, someone else can correct me on this. Of that 49000 I'd take a wild guess that 8000 are PNP. I can't seem to find data on the rest of PNPs invited directly by the province.


EDIT: https://www.cicnews.com/2019/07/more-than-92000-immigrants-admitted-to-canada-through-express-entry-in-2018-new-report-shows-0712457.html#gs.vdwunf

A total of 10,802 Express Entry candidates with a provincial nomination received an ITA in 2018, up from 8,733 the year before.

This amounted to 12 per cent of all ITAs issued in 2018, which was consistent with the proportion of Express Entry candidates who had a provincial nomination in 2017.
Click to expand...
If its 12% then 5880 of 49000 are probably PNP ITAs
So that might leave 81400-49000-5880 = 26520 ITAs for FSW, FST and CEC programs
 
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P

Punitsingh

Hero Member
Jul 27, 2018
549
403
2018 draws patterns:
Total draws: 25
Mon draws: 3
Tue draws: 1
Thu draws: 2
Total non-wed draw: 6
B2b draw: 1
3 week gap: 2 (none followed by b2b, instead, followed by next Mon and Tue draw) edited

2019 pattern:
Total draws till now: 14
Thu draws: 1
Total non-wed draw: 1
B2b draw: 1
3 week gap: 2 (3rd in progress)
4 week gap: 1

Nothing positive has been done this year, so expecting only something positive soon
 
Last edited:
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Sharath957

Full Member
May 23, 2019
36
10
Punitsingh said:
2018 draws patterns:
Total draws: 25
Mon draws: 3
Tue draws: 1
Thu draws: 2
Total non-wed draw: 6
B2b draw: 1
3 week gap: 2 (none followed by b2b, instead, followed by next Mon and Tue draw, so we have good probability of seeing a draw before coming Wed)

2019 pattern:
Total draws till now: 14
Thu draws: 1
Total non-wed draw: 1
B2b draw: 1
3 week gap: 2 (3rd in progress)
4 week gap: 1

Nothing positive has been done this year, so expecting only something positive soon
Click to expand...
There has to be back to back draws if the Government has to follow there own targets
 
P

Punitsingh

Hero Member
Jul 27, 2018
549
403
Punitsingh said:
2018 draws patterns:
Total draws: 25
Mon draws: 3
Tue draws: 1
Thu draws: 2
Total non-wed draw: 6
B2b draw: 1
3 week gap: 2 (none followed by b2b, instead, followed by next Mon and Tue draw, so we have good probability of seeing a draw before coming Wed)

2019 pattern:
Total draws till now: 14
Thu draws: 1
Total non-wed draw: 1
B2b draw: 1
3 week gap: 2 (3rd in progress)
4 week gap: 1

Nothing positive has been done this year, so expecting only something positive soon
Click to expand...
Looks like 2019 is paying for the extra ITAs issued in 2018
 
Kenneth89

Kenneth89

Hero Member
Jun 1, 2019
405
192
Punitsingh said:
Looks like 2019 is paying for the extra ITAs issued in 2018
Click to expand...


I guess from next draw the ITAs will increase to 3750,I don't think 2019 is paying for extra ITAs giving in 2018,if that's the case 2018 would have played for the ones issued in 2017 and beside CIC has their target and I believe that is what they are working towards.
 
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bhanu1986

Star Member
Jun 13, 2019
80
44
Kenneth89 said:
I guess from next draw the ITAs will increase to 3750,I don't think 2019 is paying for extra ITAs giving in 2018,if that's the case 2018 would have played for the ones issued in 2017 and beside CIC has their target and I believe that is what they are working towards.
Click to expand...
next draw on Wednesday ...maintenance notice up
 
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