Ray of Hope - 114th Draw

[13nitinsharma]

Joining this thread. Still waiting at 450.

Predictions: April 3rd - 449/450 - 3350 Invites

 

[jojalex]

Since the cut off score is not going down below 450, the number of candidates 440 - 450 pool is slowly increasing. If this trend continues it will b big concern. Well no really RAY OF HOPE is back to back draw. Let's expect next draw next week. Cheers

 

[Shishir Chandra Kumar]

Draw in next week might require a divine intervention, coz i dont think that IRCC has plans for that. With the current trend they will be able to achieve their targets for 2019. And for the usual going above the yearly target, will be in next half of the year.
I strongly wish for some miracle to happen.

 

[ghvijay]

Since last couple of draws the scores aren't falling dow

It’s gonna come down next draw.

I HOPE !

 

[rza313]

It’s gonna come down next draw.

Thanks for your positivity man, last year scores were so lenient, I guess everyone has just decided to move to Canada this year.

 

[yumirdci]

April 3rd: 450 with 3350 ITAs

It can't be 450. It has to come down more. No way 3350 people will enter pool with CRS 450 and above.

 

[alfred0]

If my friend got 454 in the system base on 2 years work experience. However his real 2 years work experience is March 29, 2019 , can he take this invitation and submit everything after March 29?

Thanks

Ask your friend to submit the PR application after March 29, he is fine

 

[NishaKirthi]

Lost 5 points due to birthday and went 438 from 443. Managed to increase ielts and at 444 now.

 

[Kk1234]

I am at 446, losing hope now

 

[frightenedpanda]

any chance for 445?

 

[tushar2485]

hi Friends, I am sitting @443 in the pool. Travelling on work visa to Canada in April '19. My sister has already got PR card but is in India currently. Can I claim 15 points of siblings. This ll boost my score.

 

[skg1988]

Hey Guys,
Good luck for those who are still waiting for their chance, including me.

The candidates entring into the pool with 451 or more score---

31 jan to 14 feb = 3365, or 224.33/day or 30jan to 14 feb =16 day means 210.3/day, assumption 30 jan, candidates entered after draw.

14 feb to 28 feb = (2590+3350)-3365=2575, or 183.9/day.

28feb to 14 march = (2190+3350)-2590 = 2950, or 210.7/day.

The fluctuation might be depending on the ielts exams and results but not sure.
With this data, I believe there should be around 104 more candiadates with score 451 or more, on 20 march, means today.

Now if this trend continues, 210/day, then next draw must include, 3350-(210*14+104), 306 candidates from the score ranging between 441 to 450.

This means cut-off might be around 449 to 450 with 3350 ITAS.

Lets see what happens next. I think there should be an increase in the number of ITAs from April onwards....


Cheers
Suarj

 

[abhishek_89]

CRS cut off outlook based on current EE pool intake

Based on the current average EE pool intake, easily more than 3350 applicants are entering the pool every 2 weeks with a CRS above 445. This means if CIC continues with 3350 ITAs and 2 week gap draws, the cut off won't reduce to CRS 445 or below unless there is a drastic decrease in the intake (which is highly unlikely). The cut off would settle in the mid to higher 440s range (446-449) in that case.

So, for all those with CRS 445 and below, you would need 1 week gap draws OR 2 week gap draws with higher number of ITAs to receive an ITA in the foreseeable future.

 

[frightenedpanda]

CRS cut off outlook based on current EE pool intake

Based on the current average EE pool intake, easily more than 3350 applicants are entering the pool every 2 weeks with a CRS above 445. This means if CIC continues with 3350 ITAs and 2 week gap draws, the cut off won't reduce to CRS 445 or below unless there is a drastic decrease in the intake (which is highly unlikely). The cut off would settle in the mid to higher 440s range (446-449) in that case.

So, for all those with CRS 445 and below, you would need 1 week gap draws OR 2 week gap draws with higher number of ITAs to receive an ITA in the foreseeable future.

If there are more than 3350 applicants entering the pool every two weeks with a score of 445 and above, I doubt the CIC will need do a back to back draw cos they are hitting their targets even with a cutoff of 450+? So basically, no hope for 445-449 this year... ?

 

[abhishek_89]

True.... interesting thing to note - 451+ scoring guys are getting into the pool like anything, the numbers are really crazy high.
On the other hand for 441-450 range, on 28th Feb count was 2050, on 14th March count is 2829... only 779 added in 14 days....
As per our analyst folks in ROH#113, for 451+ score each day around 150-200 were getting added.
I can only hope for it to get to 441..

With CRS 451+, on an average 200-230 applicants are entering the pool (either new applicants or those who increase their score) every day.

The increase in the 441-450 range is the net intake which means 1500 new folks might have got added or increased their score to 441-450 range in the last 2 weeks but another 750 would have moved out of that range (gone below 441 or above 450) in the same time period.

You can notice the net intake would be similarly less at each range below 441 also like 431-440, 421-430, etc.