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if we don't get any news by the few few months, April or may so, then it's safe to assume we'll be hitting +24 months wait! (personally scared to death about that because all my life plans will be ruined but well it is what it is)
I keep reading that people believe this, that there's some bimodal thing where it's either less than 12 months or more than 24. I don't see any reason to believe that.

If my rough estimate/reading between lines is correct, it's more like the numbers go down with decreasing speed, and then settle out into a slower - but NOT flat - line. Or if you like, that after about 12-16 months, the remaining ~2000-2500 continue to decline at about a hundred a month (probably less than a hundred, declining slowly, possibly close to same %), more or less until done. So no particular reason to begin worrying more at this point, save to understand it won't look like much movement - too few moving to show much on the board and not a lot of activity here (which is a small sample after all).

When's 'done'? I don't know. I'd guess they have a mop-up effort to clear those that haven't cleared after 24-36 months (probably more than one month's 'cohort' at a time. But that may be more about dealing with those that have some prohibition and they have to decide what to do. (And the 'cleaning up' is deciding what to do for those that don't have definitive). But this is very much a guess.
 
this was my assumption too until end of year last year. those time when I kept tracking FB pages, I noticed a huge batch release of BG for folks with AOR in December 2024. so roughly around 12 months after the start of their security, they got the BG approved. having said that, I think armoured analysis is pretty accurate. if we don't get any news by the few few months, April or may so, then it's safe to assume we'll be hitting +24 months wait! (personally scared to death about that because all my life plans will be ruined but well it is what it is)
aren't you considering filing a mandamus? I am going to wait till Jun-Jul after which I will surely do it.
 
aren't you considering filing a mandamus? I am going to wait till Jun-Jul after which I will surely do it.
I talked to a lawyer. She said I can't do mandamus until the processing time website clearly says "we need more time to process your application". she also mentioned there are steps to be taken before that and it's tio early to discuss them
 
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I talked to a lawyer. She said I can't do mandamus until the processing time website clearly says "we need more time to process your application". she also mentioned there are steps to be taken before that and it's tio early to discuss them
That's a decent rough guideline she gave - I'm not going to say that this is the exact time/earliest one can or should be filed, but as a 'not before', a simple and helpful rule of thumb.

FYI - currently the tracker/processing times thing is showing 'more time needed' for applications filed in September 2024. So assuming progress continues as now, about six months for March 25 applicants.

Yes, I know this is several months more than the 13/14 months expected processing times. I think a lawyer would say that being just over that general guideline is still far too early to file mandamus.
 
For me when I ordered GCMS notes: this is what it said in the notes
"Application submitted via e-app. / Demande déposée par voie électronique.
Name search completed. / Recherche par nom complétée
The applicant completed their online knowledge test. / Le demandeur a complété le test de connaissances en ligne.
Language requirement has been passed based on a review of supporting evidence submitted with the application. / L'exigence linguistique a été satisfaite sur la base d'un examen des preuves à l'appui soumises avec la demande.
Foreign police certificate received. No concerns, application may proceed. / Certificat de police étrangère reçu. Aucune préoccupation, la demande peut être traitée."
I could not understand this, so today I asked google what this means and here is the result
"
Here is a breakdown of what each part means:
  • Application submitted via e-app. / Demande déposée par voie électronique: Your application was successfully received by IRCC through the online portal.
  • Name search completed. / Recherche par nom complétée: IRCC has completed a background check on your name to ensure there are no security, criminal, or immigration-related issues.
  • The applicant completed their online knowledge test. / Le demandeur a complété le test de connaissances en ligne: You have successfully taken the citizenship test. Once this status shows as completed, it usually means you have passed.
  • Language requirement has been passed based on a review of supporting evidence... / L'exigence linguistique a été satisfaite...: Immigration officers have reviewed your documents (such as diplomas or test results) and verified that you meet the required language proficiency (CLB/NCLC Level 4).
  • Foreign police certificate received. No concerns, application may proceed. / Certificat de police étrangère reçu. Aucune préoccupation, la demande peut être traitée: The police certificate you submitted has been reviewed, no issues were found, and your application is moving forward without any delays regarding criminal record checks.
    Canada.ca +6
Summary:
Your application is moving smoothly through the process. Key requirements—Language (L), Physical Presence/Background (P), and Prohibitions/Police check (P)—appear to be cleared, and you have completed the Knowledge (K) test. The next major step is usually the invitation to the citizenship ceremony. "

And here I am still waiting for updates from IRCC since 14 Oct 2025 ???
 
For me when I ordered GCMS notes: this is what it said in the notes
"Application submitted via e-app. / Demande déposée par voie électronique.
Name search completed. / Recherche par nom complétée
The applicant completed their online knowledge test. / Le demandeur a complété le test de connaissances en ligne.
Language requirement has been passed based on a review of supporting evidence submitted with the application. / L'exigence linguistique a été satisfaite sur la base d'un examen des preuves à l'appui soumises avec la demande.
Foreign police certificate received. No concerns, application may proceed. / Certificat de police étrangère reçu. Aucune préoccupation, la demande peut être traitée."
I could not understand this, so today I asked google what this means and here is the result
"
Here is a breakdown of what each part means:
  • Application submitted via e-app. / Demande déposée par voie électronique: Your application was successfully received by IRCC through the online portal.
  • Name search completed. / Recherche par nom complétée: IRCC has completed a background check on your name to ensure there are no security, criminal, or immigration-related issues.
  • The applicant completed their online knowledge test. / Le demandeur a complété le test de connaissances en ligne: You have successfully taken the citizenship test. Once this status shows as completed, it usually means you have passed.
  • Language requirement has been passed based on a review of supporting evidence... / L'exigence linguistique a été satisfaite...: Immigration officers have reviewed your documents (such as diplomas or test results) and verified that you meet the required language proficiency (CLB/NCLC Level 4).
  • Foreign police certificate received. No concerns, application may proceed. / Certificat de police étrangère reçu. Aucune préoccupation, la demande peut être traitée: The police certificate you submitted has been reviewed, no issues were found, and your application is moving forward without any delays regarding criminal record checks.
    Canada.ca +6
Summary:
Your application is moving smoothly through the process. Key requirements—Language (L), Physical Presence/Background (P), and Prohibitions/Police check (P)—appear to be cleared, and you have completed the Knowledge (K) test. The next major step is usually the invitation to the citizenship ceremony. "

And here I am still waiting for updates from IRCC since 14 Oct 2025 ???
I'm astounded you think that a google summary of the minimal inputs you provided will tell you much. (Was this so-called artificial intelligence? Because it really is artificial, in this instance - in the sense of not actual intelligence. But roughly as confident in its conclusions, despite no actual understanding of the system, as the average idiot. It's a language-correlation machine, not an interpretation of results.)

Now I don't know what form of gcms notes you received, was this summary at the top of this?

In the detailed notes of one I'm looking at:
-at/near top, in section marked ASSESSMENTS, summary (one word) for knowledge/language/residence/prohibitions/security. These seem only to have word combinations like passed, in progress, and not started. (YMMV as to what exactly).

-in section marked (underlined) as CLEARANCES:

-sub-section SECURITY, text security clearance, in progress, no validity date, status blank
-sub-activities under that: CIT CSIS Screening, no validity date (blank) [clearly this is the part not done]

-activity CRIMINALITY
-sub-section text passed, validity date (in future, i.e. good until)
-in here there is CIT RCMP Screening


Later in NOTES there is RCMP CSIS Pending, elsehwere also note to effect that Prohibitions not started (which I don't think as meaningful on its own).

So simple conclusion (my interpretation): RCMP has cleared for there bits / police records, the file is pending the CSIS Screening.

[I still have plenty of questions: like what CIT means. My guess is it's some internal method/mechanism for submitting requests through to other agencies, roughly, centralized IT platform or something, ie it's how they request the CSIS/RCMP clearances/checks.]

In other words: from your text I cannot tell whether either background or prohibitions have actually been cleared. Unless you have the info to suggest that, my guess is not.
 
I'm astounded you think that a google summary of the minimal inputs you provided will tell you much. (Was this so-called artificial intelligence? Because it really is artificial, in this instance - in the sense of not actual intelligence. But roughly as confident in its conclusions, despite no actual understanding of the system, as the average idiot. It's a language-correlation machine, not an interpretation of results.)
That may have come across as rude to you - not intended that way. I'm just mocking AI.
 
aren't you considering filing a mandamus? I am going to wait till Jun-Jul after which I will surely do it.
Haven't talked to a lawyer like @Hwallikniw but after feeding data from the internet to both chatgpt 5.3 thinking and gemini pro model, both of them suggest that the right time to file for mandamus is at 18 month mark. There have been cases where court have rejected mandamus because it was filed too early although processing time had exceeded already in those cases. You can start looking at the 15 month mark but the best is 18 month mark as per these AI models.
 
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That may have come across as rude to you - not intended that way. I'm just mocking AI.
Well it did sound rude, however thanks for clarifying that it was not intended. My GCMS notes sections on page 12 exactly said what I have included in the first few lines of my post. Those statements are so disconnected I just wanted to know how would Google interpret it, so I tried. Looks like most of the checks are completed and only maybe couple of steps remain like you said the clearances are pending. On my first attempt I did accidently leave out the first line of the report: Here is another version of Google interpretation

Part of GCMS Notes: "
Applicant awaiting clearances as of this date; once clearances received and reviewed, decision can be made

Application submitted via e-app. / Demande déposée par voie électronique.
Name search completed. / Recherche par nom complétée
The applicant completed their online knowledge test. / Le demandeur a complété le test de connaissances en ligne.
Language requirement has been passed based on a review of supporting evidence submitted with the application. / L'exigence linguistique a été satisfaite sur la base d'un examen des preuves à l'appui soumises avec la demande.
Foreign police certificate received. No concerns, application may proceed. / Certificat de police étrangère reçu. Aucune préoccupation, la demande peut être traitée."

Google interpretation:
"This message indicates that your Canadian citizenship application is actively moving through the final stages of processing and has passed several key requirements. The overall status is positive, but a final decision is pending the completion of background checks.

Here is a breakdown of what each status update means:
  • Applicant awaiting clearances as of this date; once clearances received and reviewed, decision can be made: This is a standard step for security and background checks. Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) is waiting for final confirmation from relevant authorities (like RCMP or international agencies) to ensure there are no prohibitions.
  • Application submitted via e-app. / Demande déposée par voie électronique: Your application was submitted online.
  • Name search completed. / Recherche par nom complétée: A standard background screening step, often the first part of the clearance process, has been done.
  • The applicant completed their online knowledge test. / Le demandeur a complété le test de connaissances en ligne: You have finished the citizenship test. Note that if you just completed it, the score is temporary until a proctor reviews the session, typically taking a few days to weeks.
  • Language requirement has been passed based on a review of supporting evidence: You have successfully proven your proficiency in English or French, likely through educational documents or test results submitted.
  • Foreign police certificate received. No concerns, application may proceed. / Certificat de police étrangère reçu. Aucune préoccupation, la demande peut être traitée: This is a very positive update. It means any foreign police certificates required have been reviewed and accepted by an officer.
What happens next?
Once the outstanding "clearances" (background checks) are finalized, a citizenship officer will review the entire file to make a final decision, after which you will be scheduled for an oath ceremony if approved. "

My conclusion is that the interpretation is not very far off. And my frustration is that the last leg of my application IRCC has been working on for last 22 weeks with no progress / no progress updates.