Low(er) Scores? Why You'll Still Get ITA under EE

[aberawi]

hello guys,,,, i know my question is silly,,, but whit a score of 350,,, is there any chance to get ITA this year,,,,,

 

[jason_tr]

Warning: None of the contents of this post can be taken as immigration advice, it is solely the personal opinion and analysis of the author.

Looking back at the reason why EE was introduced:
EE was introduced to ease and speed up the employment of permanent workers in the areas of (genuine) skill shortage. Employers were complaining that there is a skill shortage, immigrants complaining that they can't get skill appropriate jobs. So basically CIC is telling the employers: here, fill your skill shortage from the pool.
The main idea is to fill the shortage while avoiding the flooding of the job market. Flooding the job market has several consequences for Canadian job seekers and immigrants alike. So with this perspective in mind, and looking at the point marks, the EE is exactly doing that, "to fill the skill shortage" with "the minimum number of intake possible".

My take is that the quotas are not minimums, they are actually maximum capacities. There is no need to fill the quota, the need is "only to fill the skill shortage". This is why a job offer is so emphasized for permanent immigration.

I could be wrong though, so keep improving your human capital net worth.

 

[the_lion]

I agree about EE, all that you've mentioned. Although youre notions about quotas are debatable.
CIC is a little autonomous body working under the minister of immigration.
Immigration wuotas are passed in the parliamentary bill after debate from the govt. And the opposition around Nov Each year.
if the cap is underfilled or overfilled, they have to justify it to the parliament.

 

[Mbgirlfriend]

People seem to be forgetting about the backlog of applications from the old system that still need to be processed. The approved applications from the old system will contribute to them making those target numbers. I suspect that they will use the EE system to slow the flow of applications while still accepting strong applications for processing until they deal with the backlog. The backlog goes back years and so I think low amounts of ITA's can be expected until they significantly clear up the backlog.

Also, I am not sure what Australia's old system was like and how they handled the move from old to new but CIC has said they will continue processing old paper applications based on old rules and time lines. So even if the EE is similar to the new system in Australia it doesn't mean that the roll out of the EE will look the same as the roll out of the Australia system. There are other factors to consider like how much of a mess the old Australia system was compared to the mess the old Canadian immigration system was. Canada still has a big mess to clean up so I suspect that the priory in terms of hours spent by CIC will be on cleaning up the mess and only working on very strong applications until the mess is cleaned up.

My prediction is that the ITA's are low for the first year or more thus only very high scores will get ITA's. I do think eventually more ITA's will go out and the scores for getting them will be lower. I just don't think it will happen in the first year. I think new systems can take time to work the way they are meant to so people may have to just wait a little longer but don't give up if the the numbers stay about the same as the initial draw for a while.

 

[Mpereira]

Is CIC going to look at only points or also the type of jobs? makes no sense to only look at points. Does anyone know?

 

[irishIan]

CIC will look at points only I'm thinking. An approved LMIA supported job offer deals with the job because most foreign workers need an LMIA to get a job.

 

[forever21]

CIC will look at points only I'm thinking. An approved LMIA supported job offer deals with the job because most foreign workers need an LMIA to get a job.

IrishIan, did you come to Canada on IEC?

 

[zhk]

You are comparing apples to oranges when you compare the points. The point structure of Canada and Australia is COMPLETELY DIFFERENT. Australia has a continuous scale where having a job offer suddenly does not make you exceptional. It only gives you a marginal advantage. For Canada, having a job offer/PNP gives you HALF of the total points. So either you have an offer and score over 800, or you don't have a job offer/PNP and score around 400. There is no scoring in the middle 500-800 ish. A 10% drop in Australia's point system is equivalent to a 50% drop in Canada's point system. At least get the facts straight.

For everything else who said, just look at historical data. I have no personal interest in the express entry system to favor any narrative. Just stating my opinion on the program based on available facts. Of course, neither you nor I know what the future holds.

great analysis!! you, my friend deserve an ITA 8)

 

[2niharika]

 

[Dabas B]

I have gone through all post.just a single question

Everyone knows that health-care sector is one of the profession in demand say nurses but without registration and licenses they cannot get any job in canada so their 600 points are gone straight away.on the other side IT jobs are easy to get.

So this year no one will be picked on health-care sector or any profession which requires licenses.

 

[AAA2133]

I have gone through all post.just a single question

Everyone knows that health-care sector is one of the profession in demand say nurses but without registration and licenses they cannot get any job in canada so their 600 points are gone straight away.on the other side IT jobs are easy to get.

So this year no one will be picked on health-care sector or any profession which requires licenses.

To get 600 points you must have an LMIA (not licenses). I assume it would be easier to get an LMIA for in demand occupations.

 

[tenkrun10]

The stat model will behave similarly. The band of cut-off will become clear as more draws are undertaken.; their model will improve with more data points. Agreed. But, just giving a cursory look at Australia's draws; the bell curve is very very apparent and they cut it off at ~35% from the tail end; and shows that their first draw's cut-off was very point on indeed. first draw cut-off was 65; and it has hovered around that band. So first draw was dead-on with whatever assumptions they used. I think CIC's statistician's are working on the same assumption and similar models. But remember there is a reason they initially chose to seed their model with such a high cut-off of 886 points. Yes, the ranges will become clear because Canada's model will have high variation simply due to lopsided points given to two metrics. So Canada will behave differently. It is hard to digest these kind of outcomes; but I am not looking at a 50% drop any time soon. They will prioritize CEC; and CIC has said so too; but for other streams it is not looking good.

Not all provinces have been allotted quota into EE pool yet. Alberta for example has 0 nominations for 2015. But LMO/LMIA pockets are very deep.

I just saw the stats for 2013; and there are 146,870 workers with LMOs in Canada. Let's assume 30% of them are working in NOC 0,A and B....that leaves ~45K people eligible for EE. And imagine 50% of them want to live in Canada and apply for EE and are eligible:- ~25K people with LMOs. So you are looking at substantial number of LMO/LMIA in itself.

So once PNP get going; competition is going to see an increase and not a decrease. But this means that tail-end will have high number of candidates. What will be interesting to see is how the average score behaves. True, more draws will make the picture clearer but the first stroke of brush has already painted a foundation.

EEknowledge - I Revived this thread that was created about 40 days ago. We had a bit of back and forth on the argument that points for ITA will eventually drop to the 400s. With time , very short time we have a verdict on what was then a projection. The reason I brought this up was a comment made that facts were being bent to support my narrative - not this case mate. As a matter of principle, I make a case for my opinion on account of facts. If in the case that I need to make inferences - i state so clearly.

Lesson - discussing ideas are a great thing. Prior to facts emerging..no one person knows with 100% certainty but at expectation can be pushed to the fore with supporting facts and theories. "Bending the facts" or "naive" as you stated in arguing against the expectation i tried to support are things that deviate from facts, reasoned theories, or inferences that can allow forumers make informed decisions.

One thing - I was the project manager on the team that designed the frame work for the aussie system. I have an idea of how the system is designed.

 

[inokalbo]

EEknowledge - I Revived this thread that was created about 40 days ago. We had a bit of back and forth on the argument that points for ITA will eventually drop to the 400s. With time , very short time we have a verdict on what was then a projection. The reason I brought this up was a comment made that facts were being bent to support my narrative - not this case mate. As a matter of principle, I make a case for my opinion on account of facts. If in the case that I need to make inferences - i state so clearly.

Lesson - discussing ideas are a great thing. Prior to facts emerging..no one person knows with 100% certainty but at expectation can be pushed to the fore with supporting facts and theories. "Bending the facts" or "naive" as you stated in arguing against the expectation i tried to support are things that deviate from facts, reasoned theories, or inferences that can allow forumers make informed decisions.

One thing - I was the project manager on the team that designed the frame work for the aussie system. I have an idea of how the system is designed.

Very well said! Good job! Now I hope it will eventually dip to 300plus. ( I have 389). Wha do you think?

 

[Ishneetd]

EEknowledge - I Revived this thread that was created about 40 days ago. We had a bit of back and forth on the argument that points for ITA will eventually drop to the 400s. With time , very short time we have a verdict on what was then a projection. The reason I brought this up was a comment made that facts were being bent to support my narrative - not this case mate. As a matter of principle, I make a case for my opinion on account of facts. If in the case that I need to make inferences - i state so clearly.

Lesson - discussing ideas are a great thing. Prior to facts emerging..no one person knows with 100% certainty but at expectation can be pushed to the fore with supporting facts and theories. "Bending the facts" or "naive" as you stated in arguing against the expectation i tried to support are things that deviate from facts, reasoned theories, or inferences that can allow forumers make informed decisions.

One thing - I was the project manager on the team that designed the frame work for the aussie system. I have an idea of how the system is designed.

What do you think now looking at the mid year statistics released by CIC. By when can the score be expected to go to 400 | 380 | 360, if ever ?

http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/resources/reports/ee-midyear-2015.asp

http://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/express-entry-mid-year-report-by-cic-july-31-2015-very-informative-t330725.0.html;msg4633245#msg4633245

http://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/express-entry-mid-year-report-by-cic-july-31-2015-very-informative-t330725.0.html;msg4575538#msg4575538

 

[Tikhe0001]

hello guys,,,, i know my question is silly,,, but whit a score of 350,,, is there any chance to get ITA this year,,,,,

nil chances this year. Don't know about next year.