Immigration/Express Entry Q1 2016 Quarterly report (~86,000 PRs granted)

[Alexios07]

Ok, the title is a little bit of click bait-y, but I've been playing around with IRCC stats for Q1 2016,

and here are some important and very interesting stats for Express Entry for Q1 2016 (January - March)

(Right click and choose View Image on Firefox or Open Image in new tab in Chrome for full size)


86,184 PRs have been granted

• 42,642 for Economic migrants
• 25,863 for Refugees
• 16,867 for Family class

Among 86,184 PRs, 42,642 PRs for Economic migrants

• 17,931 for Skilled Workers (42%)
• 13,108 for PNPs (30%)
• 1,1017 for Skilled trades
• 10,586 for Other Economic streams (CEC, Live-in caregivers, Caregivers, Investors etc.)

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Now, let's go deeper

Among 17,931 PRs for Skilled Workers

• 8,610 PRs for Skilled Workers applicants applied as principal applicant
• 9,321 PRs for Skilled Workers applicants applied with spouses and dependants

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Among 10,586 PRs for Other Economic streams (CEC, Live-in caregivers, Caregivers, Investors etc.)

• 2,447 PRs for CEC applicants applied as principal applicant
• 2,336 PRs for CEC applicants applied with spouses and dependants

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• 2,164 PRs for Live-in caregivers applicants applied as principal applicant
• 2,395 PRs for Live-in caregivers applicants applied with spouses and dependants

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Among 16,867 PRs for Family class

• 11,204 PRs for Spouses and partners
• 3,675 PRs for Parents and grandparents
• 779 PRs for Sons and daughters

(Right click and choose View Image on Firefox or Open Image in new tab in Chrome for full size)

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PR by country of citizenship

Among 86,184 PRs

• 10,598 new PR from Philippines (12.2%)
• 10,256 new PR from India (11.9%)
• 6,234 new PR from China (7.2%)
• 2,836 new PR from Pakistan (3.2%)
• 2,285 new PR from US (2.65%)

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So based on these numbers, we can say that Skilled Workers applicants are a dominant force in the EE system/Economic stream with a total of 17,931 PRs have been granted - accounted for 42% of the whole stream.

While CEC applicants AKA international students only have 4,783 ~ 11% of Economic stream.

Philippines together with India account for more than 22% of all new PR in Canada (Syrian refugees are not counted).

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All sources can be downloaded from IRCC

 

[GurpreetSunny]

Ok, the title is a little bit of click bait-y, but I've playing around with IRCC stats for Q1 2016,

and here are some important and very interesting stats for Express Entry for Q1 2016 (January - March)

(Right click and choose View Image on Firefox or Open Image in new tab in Chrome for full size)


86,184 PRs have been granted
I think the quota is around 3,00,000 immigrants. The CRS should come down in near future to reach the quota.

• 42,642 for Economic migrants
• 25,863 for Refugees
• 16,867 for Family class

Among 42,642 PRs for Economic migrants

• 17,931 for Skilled Workers (42%)
• 13,108 for PNPs (30%)
• 1,1017 for Skilled trades
• 10,586 for Other Economic streams (CEC, Live-in caregivers, Caregivers, Investors etc.)

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Now, let's go deeper

Among 17,931 PRs for Skilled Workers

• 8,610 PRs for Skilled Workers applicants applied as principal applicant
• 9,321 PRs for Skilled Workers applicants applied with spouses and dependants

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Among 10,586 PRs for Other Economic streams (CEC, Live-in caregivers, Caregivers, Investors etc.)

• 2,447 PRs for CEC applicants applied as principal applicant
• 2,336 PRs for CEC applicants applied with spouses and dependants

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• 2,164 PRs for Live-in caregivers applicants applied as principal applicant
• 2,395 PRs for Live-in caregivers applicants applied with spouses and dependants

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Among 16,867 PRs for Family class

• 11,204 PRs for Spouses and partners
• 3,675 PRs for Parents and grandparents
• 779 PRs for Sons and daughters

(Right click and choose View Image on Firefox or Open Image in new tab in Chrome for full size)


So based on these numbers, we can say that Skilled Workers applicants are a dominant force in the EE system/Economic stream with a total of 17,931 PRs have been granted - accounted for 42% of the whole stream.

While CEC applicants AKA international students only have 4,783 ~ 11% of Economic stream

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All sources can be downloaded from IRCC

 

[Skvach]

I assume those people in the report were selected during the last 6 month of 2015, when draws where more than 1500.

 

[MZASAM]

The stats include Jan - Mar 2016

 

[Alexios07]

According to Immigration Plan 2016, we have a total of 160,600 ITAs for Economic stream for this year, and we already burn through 42,642 in the first three months.

So we still have around 117,958 ITAs left for April - December. Anyone wants to make some correlations between this number and ITAs per draw?

 

[paulard]

I think these information are very interesting. About economic class, we know that we don't have many invitations under Express Entry (about 1600˜2000 invitations by month actually), in this way we may say that in the near future, when the backlog is clear, the express entry draws should be larger, to keep these numbers per month.

 

[paulard]

According to , we have a total of 160,600 ITAs for Economic stream for this year, and we already burn through 42,642 in the first three months.

So we still have around 117,958 ITAs left for April - December. Anyone wants to make some correlations between this number and ITAs per draw?

I think the problem here, to correlate the numbers, we don't know how large the backlog still.

 

[thejkhan]

I think these information are very interesting. About economic class, we know that we don't have many invitations under Express Entry (about 1600˜2000 invitations by month actually), in this way we may say that in the near future, when the backlog is clear, the express entry draws should be larger, to keep these numbers per month.

That's what I keep saying. They are clearing the backlog at the moment - the number of ITAs is going to go up drastically either later this year or early next year. It's not going to be around 780-800 forever!

 

[Alexios07]

I think the problem here, to correlate the numbers, we don't know how large the backlog still.

I'm taking a look at 2015 stats. We had total of 181,300 quota for Economic stream in 2015, and only 170,375 applicants were admitted (Source).

We still have 117k left, if we can find out the number of backlog then we can correctly calculate the ITAs left for Express Entry, then ITAs per draw. Someone wants to help me to dig through IRCC data?

 

[Skvach]

According to Immigration Plan 2016, we have a total of 160,600 ITAs for Economic stream for this year, and we already burn through 42,642 in the first three months.

So we still have around 117,958 ITAs left for April - December. Anyone wants to make some correlations between this number and ITAs per draw?

42,642 include spouses and children, while actual number of ITA that have got PR is less than 20,000
So it would be 140,000 ITAs left for 2016

79,400 principal applicants received PR in 2016 under economic class

 

[Alexios07]

42,642 include spouses and children, while actual number of ITA that have got PR is less than 20,000
So it would be 140,000 ITAs left for 2016

How come less than 20k? The number 42,642 is for all people that got PR issued by IRCC no matter what, it means those number is also taken from the quota for this year.

 

[Skvach]

How come less than 20k? The number 42,642 is for all people that got PR issued by IRCC no matter what, it means those number is also taken from the quota for this year.

isn't the total quota is for number of ITA > principal applicants?

I see, I was mistaken.

Canada will welcome between 280,000 and 305,000 (target 300,000) new permanent residents in 2016

so there are 117.000/2 = 60,000 ITAs approximately


14,000 ITAs were given in 2016 till now and most of them (hopefully) will get PR in 2016

September, October, November and December 2015 applicants most likely to get PR in 2016.
12,000 ITAs were given during those months.

It means that 26,000 ITAs have been already given and we have 34,000 ITAs left.
Its 3,800 a month >1900 per round

If they are going to continue with 750 invitations per round in summer, they will have to increase the number to 2,500 per round in September-December 2016

 

[Skvach]

Any thoughts?

 

[canuckbr]

Any thoughts?

I'm still thinking, it's hard to correlate ITA with PR. Your assumptions are fine, but it's too uncertain, unfortunately. I'll keep doing some math and return later.

 

[Alexios07]

isn't the total quota is for number of ITA > principal applicants?

I see, I was mistaken.
so there are 117.000/2 = 60,000 ITAs approximately


14,000 ITAs were given in 2016 till now and most of them (hopefully) will get PR in 2016

September, October, November and December 2015 applicants most likely to get PR in 2016.
12,000 ITAs were given during those months.

It means that 26,000 ITAs have been already given and we have 34,000 ITAs left.
Its 3,800 a month >1900 per round

If they are going to continue with 750 invitations per round in summer, they will have to increase the number to 2,500 per round in September-December 2016

I think I found the backlog stats:

PR Application Processing (As of March 31st, 2016)