FSW WORLDWIDE

[ilikesnow]

Regardless I'm not really paying attention now. I'll log back into my account in April or May, or if I get an email.

You know sometimes we don't get email for ADR( Additional document Request) or some other important stuff? Login to your account daily or at-least 3-4 times a week, just like you do here You would have your PPR before March for sure, maybe January.

 

[Deleted member 1006777]

You know sometimes we don't get email for ADR( Additional document Request) or some other important stuff? Login to your account daily or at-least 3-4 times a week, just like you do here You would have your PPR before March for sure, maybe January.

That's a good point. 3-4 times a week still seems excessive to me haha. And I get the desire to be optimistic but March? You gotta temper those expectations a bit my dude

 

[AndyUK]

I tried to find some sources to back up what you said, but didn't have much luck. The best I found was a news release prior to the July draw that said that 80% of new applications can expect to be processed in the 6 month standard. I kind of find it hard to believe, since that very website has a bunch of inconsistencies. It comes across more as a means to pat themselves on the back rather than actually show numbers that back up their claims.

However, them making a statement like that in itself is a big deal. We all know IRCC's main strength is overpromising and under-delivering, so I'm still skeptical. But the very fact that they're *trying* is a huge difference.

I just looked at the chart on the IRCC website (link below). It seems like on 22nd October they were way ahead of the schedule when it comes to reducing FSW backlog - 45% vs planned 59% (since this is my stream, this is the only backlog I keep tracking).
22nd November is in a few days so we should get another update very soon but if they continued this trend over the last month, then it should actually hit the 20% target.
https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/corporate/mandate/stronger-immigration-system.html

Of course there's no guarantee that this is true or it won't suddenly change but it doesn't seem to make much sense for IRCC to keep updating this every month with false information.

 

[Deleted member 1006777]

I just looked at the chart on the IRCC website (link below). It seems like on 22nd October they were way ahead of the schedule when it comes to reducing FSW backlog - 45% vs planned 59% (since this is my stream, this is the only backlog I keep tracking).
22nd November is in a few days so we should get another update very soon but if they continued this trend over the last month, then it should actually hit the 20% target.
https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/corporate/mandate/stronger-immigration-system.html

Of course there's no guarantee that this is true or it won't suddenly change but it doesn't seem to make much sense for IRCC to keep updating this every month with false information.

Ah yeah that's the page I was referring to. Lots of inconsistencies if you actually read the entire text there. That's why I'm not trusting it.

Also fyi, that's not Oct 22nd lol. It's Oct 2022. It's updated end of month. November data will be available first week of december I think.

 

[AndyUK]

Also fyi, that's not Oct 22nd lol. It's Oct 2022. It's updated end of month. November data will be available first week of december I think.

Duh... yeah, that would make sense, thanks Anyway, 22nd is almost the end of the month anyway

I suppose that the bottom line is - it's all speculation We can hope for the best, plan for the worst but at the end of the day, no one knows for sure how long each particular application will take. We know that some people recently got their PPR is around 6 weeks and we know there are others who've been waiting for over 2 years.
FWIW, I'm hoping to get PPR in 2-4 months but considering everything that's been happening in the world over the last couple of years or even just recent months, I'm certainly not being deterministic about anything anymore

 

[klubsoda]

Anybody who moved from US to Canada, did you guys get driving history from DMV before moving or just our old US driver's license are enough to show for an exchange of full G license in Ontario?

Driving history isn't necessary. Source: https://www.ontario.ca/page/exchange-out-province-drivers-licence#section-1

 

[ilikesnow]

That's a good point. 3-4 times a week still seems excessive to me haha. And I get the desire to be optimistic but March? You gotta temper those expectations a bit my dude

That's up to you how many times you want to login or not at all. August AOR people are getting 4-5 PPR daily past week in a 400 people whatsapp group , some Sept folks also getting PPRs, I'm not trying to be optimistic or something but that is what data is showing at the moment. Almost all FSW folks are getting updates and GUs.

 

[Deleted member 1006777]

That's up to you how many times you want to login or not at all. August AOR people are getting 4-5 PPR daily past week in a 400 people whatsapp group , some Sept folks also getting PPRs, I'm not trying to be optimistic or something but that is what data is showing at the moment. Almost all FSW folks are getting updates and GUs.

I do understand what you're trying to say. I'll be happy to get my PPR early next year, but I just think it's naive to *hope* for it or expect it. I've seen enough hopium nonsense over the last two years. POF update, July 2021, September 2021, leaked documents, new immigration ministerial instructions. Everything led to people speculating improved processing and resuming draws. All of it turned out to be nonsense.

Wanted to put some rudimentary math to put what you said in context Let's say your 400 person group is representative of the entire August ITA group.

4-5 PPRs a day for one week is 35 for that week. Let's push this to 40/week for easy calculation. So 160/month. that's 40% PPRs in November for August AORs: AOR+3 months = PPR for 40%. Processing standard is 6 months for 80%, so let's assume a linear rate of processing, and put that at 80% PPRs will be done by February (AOR+6 months).

So if we assume the rate you are seeing can be maintained (likely) or exceeded (unlikely), the August AOR group will meet the processing standard of 80% by February. Interesting.

To note though, is this is very very basic linear extrapolation based on an unrepresentative sample and very generous assumptions. But a good sign nonetheless to your point.

One thing I have noticed however (again based on unrepresentative data from immitracker) is that CEC and PNP (post AOR) processing is generally faster than FSW-O. Thiss could be good news for you seeing as you are PNP. I wonder what the general percentage of FSWs vs CEC vs PNP is for those getting PPRs in your group.

 

[ilikesnow]

I do understand what you're trying to say. I'll be happy to get my PPR early next year, but I just think it's naive to *hope* for it or expect it. I've seen enough hopium nonsense over the last two years. POF update, July 2021, September 2021, leaked documents, new immigration ministerial instructions. Everything led to people speculating improved processing and resuming draws. All of it turned out to be nonsense.

Wanted to put some rudimentary math to put what you said in context Let's say your 400 person group is representative of the entire August ITA group.

4-5 PPRs a day for one week is 35 for that week. Let's push this to 40/week for easy calculation. So 160/month. that's 40% PPRs in November for August AORs: AOR+3 months = PPR for 40%. Processing standard is 6 months for 80%, so let's assume a linear rate of processing, and put that at 80% PPRs will be done by February (AOR+6 months).

So if we assume the rate you are seeing can be maintained (likely) or exceeded (unlikely), the August AOR group will meet the processing standard of 80% by February. Interesting.

To note though, is this is very very basic linear extrapolation based on an unrepresentative sample and very generous assumptions. But a good sign nonetheless to your point.

One thing I have noticed however (again based on unrepresentative data from immitracker) is that CEC and PNP (post AOR) processing is generally faster than FSW-O. Thiss could be good news for you seeing as you are PNP. I wonder what the general percentage of FSWs vs CEC vs PNP is for those getting PPRs in your group.

Luckily, I only became active on this forum after all this nonsense was done by IRCC maybe that's why I'm bit high on hopium.

CEC people are getting medicals passed like after 45 days compared to new 5-10 days for FSW! I have not seen more then 1-2 CEC people getting PPR till now. Another Trend which is very common is people with Visa Rejections are taking an extra month, maybe more checks needed! 2.5 months is normal trend and 3.5 for people with Visa refusal to any country.

I'm part of AUG-SEP-OCT AOR groups on my burner whatsapp number and it's Fun What is really keeping my Hopium high is some Oct AOR people have already got PPR!!! So far the average lowest processing time for AUG AOR was 8 weeks, In SEP it was 6 weeks and in OCT it's 4 weeks already, I think the only way they can reduce the backlog is by making sure at least the new cases are processed as fast as they can.

When I lodged my application my estimate was 6-12 months as well but seeing people with similar cases to mine getting PPRs have made me bit more optimistic. Let's hope for the best.

 

[Deleted member 1006777]

Luckily, I only became active on this forum after all this nonsense was done by IRCC maybe that's why I'm bit high on hopium.

CEC people are getting medicals passed like after 45 days compared to new 5-10 days for FSW! I have not seen more then 1-2 CEC people getting PPR till now. Another Trend which is very common is people with Visa Rejections are taking an extra month, maybe more checks needed! 2.5 months is normal trend and 3.5 for people with Visa refusal to any country.

I'm part of AUG-SEP-OCT AOR groups on my burner whatsapp number and it's Fun What is really keeping my Hopium high is some Oct AOR people have already got PPR!!! So far the average lowest processing time for AUG AOR was 8 weeks, In SEP it was 6 weeks and in OCT it's 4 weeks already, I think the only way they can reduce the backlog is by making sure at least the new cases are processed as fast as they can.

When I lodged my application my estimate was 6-12 months as well but seeing people with similar cases to mine getting PPRs have made me bit more optimistic. Let's hope for the best.

Not sure how visa rejections taking a month more is notable news.

But how about you get on the november AOR group as well and feed me some info?

 

[ilikesnow]

Not sure how visa rejections taking a month more is notable news.

I was amazed to see many people mentioning or asking any visa refusal to PPR people and later came to know this is a thing.

But how about you get on the november AOR group as well and feed me some info?

If the link appears in any, I'll join it.

 

[dankboi]

hehe

 

[Deleted member 994371]

hehe

lol

 

[RSub]

paging @RSub

I am going to do soon. I will be getting my driving history for the last 2 years. In short, you need a driving history of at least 2 years from US plus original license to exchange for a full drivers license in Canada.

https://www.ontario.ca/page/exchange-out-province-drivers-licence#section-1

 

[Mashathebear]

Luckily, I only became active on this forum after all this nonsense was done by IRCC maybe that's why I'm bit high on hopium.


I'm part of AUG-SEP-OCT AOR groups on my burner whatsapp number and it's Fun What is really keeping my Hopium high is some Oct AOR people have already got PPR!!! So far the average lowest processing time for AUG AOR was 8 weeks, In SEP it was 6 weeks and in OCT it's 4 weeks already, I think the only way they can reduce the backlog is by making sure at least the new cases are processed as fast as they can.

I'll be glad to join the October AOR group. Could you share the whatsapp link please?