Express Entry Minimum Scores expected to drop in 4th quarter of 2016

[Trusty]

Firstly, I am not claiming to predict future minimum scores to get ITA under Express Entry, nor do I believe anyone can predict such metrics because nobody but CIC has access to the data from the pool of candidates which is dynamic and changes every minute due to addition of new applications, withdrawals, people who got ITA with bogus profiles weeded out, people getting Provincial Nominations and moving up in ranks, etc. But, one thing can be predicted is the upward or downward trend of minimum scores. And yes, data points to the fact that minimum scores for ITAs might actually drop in the last 4 months of 2016.

This post is just to encourage members who have 400+ scores and are nervous about their changes of getting an ITA. There is hope, so keep trying and keep your focus on getting all supporting documents ready, funds and police clearance certificates (FBI PCC takes 3 full months, so plan such things in advance, don't wait for ITA).

Here is a video by a CIC representative and a summary of the video transcript posted in an article by the website LINK - remove spaces: cicdaily .com/2016/06/07/express-entry-scores-to-drop-in-2016/ . I am glad to have found this information and wanted to share it with other members on this forum, this is certainly a motivating outcome and gives hopes to thousands of aspirants with lower than 450 score. You can spend some time and money to get a Provincial Nomination to guarantee your chances, if you do not want to risk it, do not wait till the last minute and apply for PN, but if you have a few extra months to ride out this scenario and see if you get an ITA with your current profile without a Provincial Nomination, you are in luck because if you have a score 400+, as close to 450 the better, you have a chance of getting an ITA by end of 2016. Why? The reasons are explained by the guy in the video:

Youtube video link remove spaces: youtu. be/vaLvLG-6n3k

Quote from third party blog CIC Daily:

Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (formerly know as Citizenship and Immigration Canada) has been giving presentations recently to potential immigrants regarding the Express Entry System. One of these presentations was taped by a member of the audience and can be viewed at the link below.

Recently, at a Newcomers to Canada Fair held in Edmonton, Alberta held on May 7th, 2016, a representative of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada stated that the Express Entry score will potentially drop below 400 points in September or October of this year and will continue to be low going forward. You can see this statement at 16:14 minutes into the video.

What this means, is that for those who are serious about immigrating to Canada, you would want to be in the Express Entry Pool before the score drops later this year. It would be important to start with all of your required documents at this time.

The representative stated that they expected those scores that would be selected from May to July would be higher than earlier in the year due to less applicants being selected in each draw. The more people that are selected in each draw, the lower the required Comprehensive Ranking System Score will be. We have seen that this has been accurate as the scores have been in the high 400’s and 500’s for the past seven draws.

You will notice that at 15:00 minutes into the video he states that scores between 420 and 450 have been selected. We know that this is incorrect, as no score lower than 450 has ever been selected since Express Entry began.

The representative goes on to explain that there is currently still a backlog of paper based applications for the Federal Skilled Worker, Federal Skilled Trades, Canadian Experience Class and Provincial Nominee Programs which are still taking spots for the yearly allotted cap in each of these programs. As these old applications are cleared out of the system, the only way for the government to fill their quotas will be through the Express Entry System. This means that more people will need to be selected in each draw, which will result in lower scores being selected to fill the quotas.

The representative goes on to say that they expect this backlog to be cleared out by September 2016, and as a result the number of Invitations to Apply being handed out in each draw will increase to between 2,000 – 2,500 per draw. As a result, they expect the score to drop below 400 points. This statement can be viewed 18:25 minutes into the video.

This post is not to start a discussion or arguments about predicting future ITA minimum scores, rather to show that there is hope for lower ranking candidates due to the valid reasons mentioned by the guy in the video.

The exact minimum scores for ITA as always will be dependent upon the characteristics of the people in the pool when the draw is made and the canadian immigration laws if they change or policies if they decide to decrease number of invitations.

ONCE AGAIN, get your documents ready, check and recheck every item on your checklist, make sure your funds are available and liquid and verifiable as needed by CIC upon application. You might get your ITA before you expect it, better to be prepared with everything ready instead of declining the ITA and hoping for another chance.


Good luck!

 

[Gurmeet_Kaur23]

Thank you for sharing this video. Thanks a lot. It has really given me a new hope. My marks are 437 and I was feeling very low as no draw has gone below 450 in the last year.


Thanks a lot. GOD bless!!

 

[sby123]

Man, this is a good news. Finally a useful post about future draws, all those "xxth draw crs points prediction" have been nothing but useless.
Thanks!

 

[Alexios07]

Stale news and unconfirmed information. This link has been posted several times already and discussed on various threads.

Please check the forum before posting duplicated thread. It's making everything disorganized.

http://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/as-per-cic-officials-from-septoct-they-will-invite-2000-ita-t413966.0.html
http://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/express-entry-reforms-in-2016-t429477.0.html

 

[bhupisingh41]

confusion regarding NOC

I have experience of Kitchen designer for retail company for 3.5 years in which sales was also part apart from designing it.However my qualification is of MBA in marketing.

please guide which noc to choose. 6421 Retail salespersons or 5242 Interior designers ????

 

[manishsnarwani]

Thank you so much for sharing this article and the video link. This brings new hope to people like me who have scores less than 450 points and are unable to get a provincial nomination or a valid job offer in Canada. This really helps!

 

[andy108]

Firstly, I am not claiming to predict future minimum scores to get ITA under Express Entry, nor do I believe anyone can predict such metrics because nobody but CIC has access to the data from the pool of candidates which is dynamic and changes every minute due to addition of new applications, withdrawals, people who got ITA with bogus profiles weeded out, people getting Provincial Nominations and moving up in ranks, etc.

There is a way to predict the score. You may ask me how?

We need to have a statistical sample, large enough to predict.

We know that there are: 63,937 were in the pool as active candidates or with an outstanding invitation to apply http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/resources/reports/ee-year-end-2015.asp

We know that we would need anything from 0.1% to 10% to have a good statistical sample to predict.

We have a report here: https://myimmitracker.com/en/trackers/express-entry-tracker-crs which guessed the score for the past 6 rounds. However, the sample is quite small 350 entries. which is about 0.5%... its still good, but if we can get 1000 people registered, I gurantee we can predict each round with accuracy of 10 +/- points.

Invite everyone to join.

 

[Alexios07]

There is a way to predict the score. You may ask me how?

We need to have a statistical sample, large enough to predict.

We know that there are: 63,937 were in the pool as active candidates or with an outstanding invitation to apply http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/resources/reports/ee-year-end-2015.asp

We know that we would need anything from 0.1% to 10% to have a good statistical sample to predict.

We have a report here: https://myimmitracker.com/en/trackers/express-entry-tracker-crs which guessed the score for the past 6 rounds. However, the sample is quite small 350 entries. which is about 0.5%... its still good, but if we can get 1000 people registered, I gurantee we can predict each round with accuracy of 10 +/- points.

Invite everyone to join.

You guarantee how? do you know the exact number of ITAs they will issue for each draw? If you don't know that exact number then how on earth can you predict anything?

 

[sammy1976]

Re: confusion regarding NOC

I have experience of Kitchen designer for retail company for 3.5 years in which sales was also part apart from designing it.However my qualification is of MBA in marketing.

please guide which noc to choose. 6421 Retail salespersons or 5242 Interior designers ????

i suggest 5242

 

[andy108]

You guarantee how? do you know the exact number of ITAs they will issue for each draw? If you don't know that exact number then how on earth can you predict anything?

I would suggest you to go and check the report and learn a bit or two about statistics

 

[ZoobieS]

I would suggest you to go and check the report and learn a bit or two about statistics

+1