Estimating how many people are ahead of you in the pool

[Silence89]

So I made some VERY ROUGH calculations to do so.
The idea is simple, i checked how many people got actual invitations so far (~4050) and devided that by how many of these people had added their scores to the spreadsheet (80) and i got (~50).
So, as an average, for everyone who added himself/herself to the spreadsheet, there are 50 other people who hadn't.
Again, this is a very rough estimation, I am not an expert or anything.

for example, I have about 400 people ahead of me in the spreadsheet, so i expect the actual number is (400*50) which is 20,000.
This number might be less than that, assuming that the people with very high scores are less likely to add themselves to the SS, Because an invitation for them is guaranteed.

would love to hear your thoughts and opposing opinions.

 

[Froze950]

But why ? Why would you want our opinions on it ?

 

[rayhan0701]

So I made some VERY ROUGH calculations to do so.
The idea is simple, i checked how many people got actual invitations so far (~4050) and devided that by how many of these people had added their scores to the spreadsheet (80) and i got (~50).
So, as an average, for everyone who added himself/herself to the spreadsheet, there are 50 other people who hadn't.
Again, this is a very rough estimation, I am not an expert or anything.

for example, I have about 400 people ahead of me in the spreadsheet, so i expect the actual number is (400*50) which is 20,000.
This number might be less than that, assuming that the people with very high scores are less likely to add themselves to the SS, Because an invitation for them is guaranteed.

would love to hear your thoughts and opposing opinions.

What spreadsheet? can you provide the link.

 

[Silence89]

But why ? Why would you want our opinions on it ?

Well, I though you might know a better way to estimate it.

 

[Froze950]

An what would my estimations do ?

 

[rubyracer]

Your estimation is based on the assumption that the distribution of scores in the spreadsheet and those who applied for EOI is approximately same. This is most likely not true..

 

[Silence89]

What spreadsheet? can you provide the link.

Yes, docs,google,com/spreadsheets/d/13Hf5KT35xOJMzlHo9KVenqYSrZFTjt0qc_PZgrI4mls/edit#gid=2117108251

 

[Silence89]

An what would my estimations do ?

It might help you plan your few next upcoming months.

 

[Silence89]

Your estimation is based on the assumption that the distribution of scores in the spreadsheet and those who applied for EOI is approximately same. This is most likely not true..

Nice point.
I already hinted to that when I said "This number might be less than that, assuming that the people with very high scores are less likely to add themselves to the SS, Because an invitation for them is guaranteed."
Statistically, this deviation will be reduced as time passes and more invitations get issued.
After each draw round, This number "50" will change and get closer to the real one.

 

[kakhileshreddy]

i dont think canada want to loss such a great analysts in the form.. 8) 8) 8)

 

[Silence89]

i dont think canada want to loss such a great analysts in the form.. 8) 8) 8)

Not sure how to respond to that.

 

[Silence89]

So, For some reason I cannot modify the Original Post :-X

New Sixth Draw Update

The new Correction factor is (5687/173) = 32.87