Advice to anyone who asks AI for an expected timeline: Don't.
After taking the citizenship test in July 2026, I asked CoPilot AI to make a prediction on when to get the ceremony invitation email, based on my application history, age, location etc.. It predicted earlier than August 9.
It was obviously wrong. On August 10, after I pointed out that it was wrong, it made another "very high confidence" prediction of no later than August 31 for receiving ceremony invitation email. And the pending fields to be completed before August 22.
It was wrong again.
In fact AI predictions are unreliable in general, on any subject. I have experienced this before, but I can't help wondering about the future. It is like talking to a fortuneteller. Deep down you know you shouldn't trust it, but you hope it is right anyway.
When I sent my application in April 2025, "Processing Times" page was showing average waiting period of 8 months. I'll be happy if I get it in 18 months.
AOR _______________ May 2025
Background _______ May 2025
Exam ______________ July 2026
Physical Presence ___ ?
Prohibitions _________ ?
Language ___________ ?
Oath ceremony _____ ?
After taking the citizenship test in July 2026, I asked CoPilot AI to make a prediction on when to get the ceremony invitation email, based on my application history, age, location etc.. It predicted earlier than August 9.
It was obviously wrong. On August 10, after I pointed out that it was wrong, it made another "very high confidence" prediction of no later than August 31 for receiving ceremony invitation email. And the pending fields to be completed before August 22.
It was wrong again.
In fact AI predictions are unreliable in general, on any subject. I have experienced this before, but I can't help wondering about the future. It is like talking to a fortuneteller. Deep down you know you shouldn't trust it, but you hope it is right anyway.
When I sent my application in April 2025, "Processing Times" page was showing average waiting period of 8 months. I'll be happy if I get it in 18 months.
AOR _______________ May 2025
Background _______ May 2025
Exam ______________ July 2026
Physical Presence ___ ?
Prohibitions _________ ?
Language ___________ ?
Oath ceremony _____ ?
Last edited:
