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[Canadian__Irish]

Hello Seniors,

I would be 32 years old in November. Please, I need to know whether it is 31 I will fill in my application or it is 32.

Regards,

If you had to fill out your age, it would be your current age and not the age you will be after your birthday. In this case though, CIC asks for your birthday and not your age, so once you fill in the month-day-year it will calculate your age and update it once your birthday passes as well.

Hope that helps! All the best

 

[sharma1990]

Submitted my EE again and this time m eligible with 810 points, so guys what you think , when i m gona get my invitation ?

 

[Caimi]

Hello Members,

I submitted my EE profile in Feb and got an ITA in March with myself as the Primary Applicant and my spouse as the second applicant. That application is in process, waiting for any movement since long....

Now we plan to submit the EE application of my spouse where he would be the primary applicant and i would be the second applicant.

I have the below 2 queries:

1. Has XXXX applied for Express Entry before ? - Do we need to mention 'Yes' here and provide original application no. where he was second applicant ?

2. Four digit NOC code of current work permit ? - My spouse's work permit is an Open work permit with no NOC code mentioned on it. Can he just fill the NOC code most relevant to his profile or is there something else to it ?


Thanks,
caimi

 

[Asivad Anac]

Submitted my EE again and this time m eligible with 810 points, so guys what you think , when i m gona get my invitation ?

In the next draw whenever that happens.

 

[naredont]

Just mention Employment.

Thank you for your support and advise.

 

[aremite]

If you had to fill out your age, it would be your current age and not the age you will be after your birthday. In this case though, CIC asks for your birthday and not your age, so once you fill in the month-day-year it will calculate your age and update it once your birthday passes as well.

Hope that helps! All the best

I really appreciate your contribution, thanks.

 

[naredont]

Dear Asivad Anac,

I go ITA on 27 June, I have few queries while filling application. Appreciated your support and advise, Please

1. Travel history is not enough to complete in the given blocks. How I will submit additional travel history. Same problem for my travel history.

2. WES given only latest three qualifications assessment report but not others. In Education history, Do I need to mention all qualification? If I mention all qualifications, Can I use same WES report number?

Appreciated your response and eagerly waiting..Thank you

 

[Chaves]

I am not here to discourage anyone, but I think we may have reached equilibrium between the numbers of incoming applicants and ITA issuance. The cut-off score will likely remain above 450 for the rest of the year. Here is the reasoning:

The EE system appears to be dynamic: people submit or modify entries all the time while CIC awards ITAs somewhat periodically. In order to understand such dynamic process, we need to know the rates of the incoming applicants for each score range. Here is my attempt to estimate such rates:

In the 6th draw on March 27, the cut-off score reached 453 but quickly rebounded to 469 in the next draw (7th). That means all the applicants who received the ITAs in the 7th draw had submitted their entries after March 27. The 7th draw was 14 days after the 6th, and there were 925 applicants whose scores were higher than 469. A simple calculation (925 / 14) tells that there were about 66 new applicants per day with the scores higher than 469 during this period.

Likewise, there were 715 ITAs in the 8th draw with a cut-off score of 453. It had been 21 days after the 6th draw, and we need to estimate the number of applicants with scores higher than 469 during this period. We know the rate to be 66 applicants/day from the previous calculation, and it had been 7 days after the 7th draw, so about 462 applicants (66 * 7) had scores higher than 469 between the 7th and 8th draws. That leaves us 253 applicants (715 - 462) whose scores were between 453 and 469 during this time; we expect the rate to be 12 applicants/day with the scores between 453 and 469 during this period.

Continue to the next post.

 

[Chaves]

Continued from the previous post.

Overall, we have a rate of about 78 applicants/day (66 + 12) for the applicants with the scores higher than 453 who applied between the 6th and 8th draws. We can do similar calculations for more recent draws, and it's roughly 71 applicants/day for the people with the scores higher than 469. Now, we compare these numbers to the total number of applicants in the first 6 months of the year. CIC issued 12928 ITAs in 177 days for the applicants with the scores higher than 453. That's roughly 73 applicants/day, which agrees well with the rates we just calculated. This implies that the rates are reasonably consistent.

I read somewhere that there is a cap of 25K ITAs for EE 2015. If we assume this is correct then we have 12K ITAs remaining in the coming 180 days or so. The rates we calculated tell that we expect 14K new applicants (78 * 180) with the scores higher than 453 in the next 180 days, or about 12K applicants with the scores higher than 469. There is a good chance that the cut-off will never come below 469 as this will be sufficient to meet the 25K cap for this year.

I know this is disappointing, and I sincerely hope that I'm wrong as my score is 430. But we also need to be realistic.

If we assume that the score distribution in the spread sheet is reasonably accurate, then we have a backlog of about 6500 applicants whose scores are between 434 and 452. There will be same number of additional applicants in the next 6 months for this score range as well. By the end of the year, we will have a total of 13K applicants with the scores between 434 and 452, on top of the additional 14K applicants with the scores higher than 453. So in order to bring the cut-off score to 434, CIC has to double the rate of ITA issuance, or roughly 4500 ITAs per month.

Even in a very optimistic scenario in which CIC doubles the rate of ITA issuance, the cut-off score comes down only to 434...

If you have different perspective, please share.

 

[Asivad Anac]

......
Even in a very optimistic scenario in which CIC doubles the rate of ITA issuance, the cut-off score comes down only to 434...

If you have different perspective, please share.

Your analysis relies heavily on your first assumption - that 925 applicants entered the EE pool in 14 days. It ignores the fact that some of these people were already present in the pool with up to 452 points and their points jumped up in the subsequent 14 days for a variety of reasons including getting an LMIA, a PN, an improved IELTS/CELPIP score, completion of 3 years of foreign work experience, an ECA report etc. This would mean that less than 925 new profiles registered in the pool in those 14 days. How less? Nobody knows. Could've been 25 existing and 900 new or vice versa. Why is that number important? Because your argument keeps coming back to that number of 66 (925/14).

Another thing about EE pool and other human endeavors in general. There is less orderliness than statistics might have us believe. People don't register to the EE pool in orderly manner of the same 'x' numbers every week and projecting 2 weeks of estimated numbers in April onto June or the rest of the year isn't the right thing to do. A lot of people graduate from college and University in April-June and start working around that time. These people would complete career milestones in the same time period. Ergo one should expect to see a bump in the cutoff around this point in time with the cutoff gradually petering down in the months to come. And that is exactly what happened.

CIC doesn't issue ITA's on a total applicant/day manner so that calculation appears to be contrived to suit your purposes of matching those 2 numbers of applicants/day and ITA issued/day. What further complicates this whole exercise of speculation is the introduction of PNPs and the employer outreach programs being done by CIC hopefully leading to an upswing in the LMIA numbers. Not all of these are predictable, even by CIC. And they will play a decisive role in keeping the cutoffs higher over the next 2-3 months leading into the final quarter of the year. And finally a word about CIC's intentions to issue ITAs this year. Most of the ITAs in 2015 are going to come from clearing the backlog and not from EE. This has been made abundantly clear by CIC themselves at various points in time.

I do agree with your conclusion that the cutoffs will continue to stay north of the mid 400s for the foreseeable future but I don't agree with the maths of it or the prediction of 434.

 

[nagrish]

Hello Members,

I submitted my EE profile in Feb and got an ITA in March with myself as the Primary Applicant and my spouse as the second applicant. That application is in process, waiting for any movement since long....

Now we plan to submit the EE application of my spouse where he would be the primary applicant and i would be the second applicant.

I have the below 2 queries:

1. Has XXXX applied for Express Entry before ? - Do we need to mention 'Yes' here and provide original application no. where he was second applicant ?



2. Four digit NOC code of current work permit ? - My spouse's work permit is an Open work permit with no NOC code mentioned on it. Can he just fill the NOC code most relevant to his profile or is there something else to it ?


Thanks,
caimi

Your spouse is included in your application for PR. Why would you submit a 2nd application?

 

[Chaves]

Your analysis relies heavily on your first assumption - that 925 applicants entered the EE pool in 14 days. It ignores the fact that some of these people were already present in the pool with up to 452 points and their points jumped up in the subsequent 14 days for a variety of reasons including getting an LMIA, a PN, an improved IELTS/CELPIP score, completion of 3 years of foreign work experience, an ECA report etc. This would mean that less than 925 new profiles registered in the pool in those 14 days. How less? Nobody knows. Could've been 25 existing and 900 new or vice versa. Why is that number important? Because your argument keeps coming back to that number of 66 (925/14).

I wasn’t too clear about the definition of those rates. Perhaps I should have called it ITAs/day instead of applicants/day. You’re right in that applicants can become qualified for ITA in different ways, but I’m calculating all those cases together. The rates I calculated are the rates at which applicants become qualified for ITA per unit time; it doesn’t really matter how they reached the required score, because CIC doesn’t distinguish them when they send out ITAs.

Another thing about EE pool and other human endeavors in general. There is less orderliness than statistics might have us believe. People don't register to the EE pool in orderly manner of the same 'x' numbers every week and projecting 2 weeks of estimated numbers in April onto June or the rest of the year isn't the right thing to do. A lot of people graduate from college and University in April-June and start working around that time. These people would complete career milestones in the same time period. Ergo one should expect to see a bump in the cutoff around this point in time with the cutoff gradually petering down in the months to come. And that is exactly what happened.

I too was expecting larger fluctuations, but if you look at the numbers of ITAs after the 8th draw, you can calculate the rate to be ~71 ITAs/day for the people with >469. This is a separate calculation from the 66 ITAs/day value earlier. Also, the total ITAs in the first 6 months was 13K, or roughly 73 ITAs/day.

Is it just a coincidence, or a result of some statistical significance? I don’t know. We don’t have enough data to calculate even basic measures such as standard deviation. But I was surprised how consistent the values were, and that’s why I posted it here.

What further complicates this whole exercise of speculation is the introduction of PNPs and the employer outreach programs being done by CIC hopefully leading to an upswing in the LMIA numbers. Not all of these are predictable, even by CIC.

I agree. If CIC changes the scheme then we would have to re-calculate everything.

 

[vahidyz]

I just received a PT notification of interest from the Ontario for the Ontario Human Capital Priorities stream. I wanted to ask two things. i am claiming points for one year of experience and i am easily reaching the cutoff. I have prepared the reference letter just for that one year of work experience from that employer. after that i switched two employers but i cannot get the reference letter from them also. so is it necessary to provide reference letters from all employers ? as that is not possible or just the reference letter from the employer for which we are claiming points s enough ?

 

[Asivad Anac]

I just received a PT notification of interest from the Ontario for the Ontario Human Capital Priorities stream. I wanted to ask two things. i am claiming points for one year of experience and i am easily reaching the cutoff. I have prepared the reference letter just for that one year of work experience from that employer. after that i switched two employers but i cannot get the reference letter from them also. so is it necessary to provide reference letters from all employers ? as that is not possible or just the reference letter from the employer for which we are claiming points s enough ?

Regardless of OOPNP invite, you'll still have to meet the program eligibility of FSWP or CEC as mentioned on Pg 8 of the Application Guide.

If having that 1 year of work experience qualifies you for CEC or FSWP or both, you don't need to get reference letter from those other employers.

All the best!

 

[vahidyz]

yes i am meeting the eligibility requirements of fswp with that 1 year of work experience. so i dont need to get the reference letter from other employers ?