Some Long-Read-Guy observations . . .
That is a very personal decision no one else can make for you.
@Besram has provided good responses regarding the PR status element and the risk of inadmissibility proceedings for failing to comply with the RO.
@canuck78 has highlighted other factors which are worth considering in deciding whether the move is worth it FOR YOU in particular.
The detail you have included with your queries is very much appreciated, including in particular what the immigration lawyer offered. If you elect to make this move please return here, preferably to this same topic, and report how it goes.
Even the Google Gemini assessments are appreciated even though, as others have appropriately cautioned, that information is deeply flawed, not just due to its underlying limitations but because some of the conclusions are overtly misleading. The level of detail helps frame the scene and even flawed information can be useful to the extent it helps us better understand what is at play in regards to what matters, how so and by how much, and what does not matter.
Given the level of detail provided, your situation offers an opportunity to dive a little deeper into the dynamics of how it goes when a PR in breach of the RO attempts to make the move to Canada.
So, some long read observations in regards to PRs with a valid PR card, who have been a PR for fewer than five years, and who are in breach of the Residency Obligation . . .
. . . Re Risk of Inadmissibility Proceedings at PoE Leading to Loss of PR Status:
Again, @Besram has provided good responses regarding the PR status element, which largely comes down to there is some risk the RO breach will result in inadmissibility proceedings. That is a very difficult (if not nearly impossible) risk to quantify except in very broad terms, that is except to recognize that your odds are probably good, at the least fairly good, if the move is made relatively soon, but the risk will be increasing the longer you wait to make the move.
In particular, how soon you make the move is the main factor that you have control over which will affect your odds.
Some of the other aspects of your situation discussed here (such as whether to all make the trip together, or one go ahead), this or that particular approach which could have some influence in the amount of risk, may indeed affect the odds. However, how much so, or even how so (as in what is likely to improve versus diminish your odds), is far too difficult to quantify . . . but, these aspects will have, at most, minimal effect compared to the impact of how soon you make the move. Even if, for example, the Google Gemini information was reliable (which however, as others have cautioned, is deeply flawed for various reasons), the totality of what you can control in those respects is vastly outweighed by the influence on the odds the when factor has. When is the main factor; again, the sooner the better, and if the move is delayed past this summer the odds start to go south.
It is worth noting that the best odds are about having good odds of being waived through the Port-of-Entry without being closely questioned in regards to RO compliance. Most PRs arriving at a PoE with valid PR cards are not interviewed about RO compliance, let alone examined in depth in regards to the RO. Unless there are circumstances more or less flagging the likelihood of non-compliance with the RO, a returning PR presenting a valid PR card is likely to be waived through, and indeed (pursuant to the rules and CBSA practices) should be readily waived through.
In contrast, for example, the closer it gets to the PR card expiration date, in conjunction with a lengthy absence (long period of time since last in Canada), the more that signals a potential RO breach. This is a big part of why the sooner you arrive and the longer your PR card is still valid when you arrive, the better your odds: that is because the odds of being waived through are better.***
If not waived through, if questioned about RO compliance, for a PR in breach of the RO the odds of being subject to inadmissibility proceedings abruptly increase, the risk increasing dramatically. That is, whether or not the returning PR is waived through without being closely examined about RO compliance, versus being questioned to the extent the examining border official determines there is or likely is a RO breach, has a huge impact.
For Illustration (a comparison just to give an idea how this works), Compare:
The extent of the breach is still a big factor, so the sooner the move is made the better the PR's odds are even if examined closely enough for the border official to determine there is or likely is a RO breach. And this is where H&C factors come into the picture, noting that at this stage, for most PRs in breach, how it goes will mostly depend (not always, not entirely and definitely not for all PRs, but more commonly how it goes will depend) on comparing the extent of the breach with the reasons why the PR has not settled in Canada sooner.
Other Factors:
Again, @canuck78 has highlighted other factors which are worth considering, recognizing that to a large extent much of that is about the prospective difficulties most families would encounter in relocating from one country to another. In this regard, a huge factor is the nature and scope of your anxiety/depression and how YOU, you in particular, will handle the particular impositions and stresses in making such a move. As you are undoubtedly aware, there is a very wide range in how different people are affected and how they, their bodies, their mental and emotional conditions, respond. For some, a big move can actually be motivating, even inspirational, giving them the drive to do better; for others, the stress of the move can be a huge negative, too much to handle. I hope you have managed to navigate your difficulties in this regard sufficient to make a good assessment of how YOU in particular are likely to handle the move, including when it makes sense for you to make the move.
Note:
***So far anecdotal reporting and IAD decisions do not indicate a dramatic increase in RO compliance scrutiny of PRs presenting a valid PR card at a PoE. However, it is easy to forecast the prospect, if not the likelihood of this changing due to the development and implementation of Advanced Analytics and other AI components in conjunction with continuing enhancements in the government's capture, maintenance, and access to border crossing data. It is easy to forecast that at some juncture, sooner or not too much later (could be happening already), the technology will more frequently flag returning PRs who are in breach of the RO. This could lead to a much higher probability of PRs in breach, even if not by a lot, being subject to RO compliance examinations, which will substantially increase the risk of inadmissibility proceedings.
That is a very personal decision no one else can make for you.
@Besram has provided good responses regarding the PR status element and the risk of inadmissibility proceedings for failing to comply with the RO.
@canuck78 has highlighted other factors which are worth considering in deciding whether the move is worth it FOR YOU in particular.
The detail you have included with your queries is very much appreciated, including in particular what the immigration lawyer offered. If you elect to make this move please return here, preferably to this same topic, and report how it goes.
Even the Google Gemini assessments are appreciated even though, as others have appropriately cautioned, that information is deeply flawed, not just due to its underlying limitations but because some of the conclusions are overtly misleading. The level of detail helps frame the scene and even flawed information can be useful to the extent it helps us better understand what is at play in regards to what matters, how so and by how much, and what does not matter.
Given the level of detail provided, your situation offers an opportunity to dive a little deeper into the dynamics of how it goes when a PR in breach of the RO attempts to make the move to Canada.
So, some long read observations in regards to PRs with a valid PR card, who have been a PR for fewer than five years, and who are in breach of the Residency Obligation . . .
. . . Re Risk of Inadmissibility Proceedings at PoE Leading to Loss of PR Status:
Again, @Besram has provided good responses regarding the PR status element, which largely comes down to there is some risk the RO breach will result in inadmissibility proceedings. That is a very difficult (if not nearly impossible) risk to quantify except in very broad terms, that is except to recognize that your odds are probably good, at the least fairly good, if the move is made relatively soon, but the risk will be increasing the longer you wait to make the move.
In particular, how soon you make the move is the main factor that you have control over which will affect your odds.
Some of the other aspects of your situation discussed here (such as whether to all make the trip together, or one go ahead), this or that particular approach which could have some influence in the amount of risk, may indeed affect the odds. However, how much so, or even how so (as in what is likely to improve versus diminish your odds), is far too difficult to quantify . . . but, these aspects will have, at most, minimal effect compared to the impact of how soon you make the move. Even if, for example, the Google Gemini information was reliable (which however, as others have cautioned, is deeply flawed for various reasons), the totality of what you can control in those respects is vastly outweighed by the influence on the odds the when factor has. When is the main factor; again, the sooner the better, and if the move is delayed past this summer the odds start to go south.
It is worth noting that the best odds are about having good odds of being waived through the Port-of-Entry without being closely questioned in regards to RO compliance. Most PRs arriving at a PoE with valid PR cards are not interviewed about RO compliance, let alone examined in depth in regards to the RO. Unless there are circumstances more or less flagging the likelihood of non-compliance with the RO, a returning PR presenting a valid PR card is likely to be waived through, and indeed (pursuant to the rules and CBSA practices) should be readily waived through.
In contrast, for example, the closer it gets to the PR card expiration date, in conjunction with a lengthy absence (long period of time since last in Canada), the more that signals a potential RO breach. This is a big part of why the sooner you arrive and the longer your PR card is still valid when you arrive, the better your odds: that is because the odds of being waived through are better.***
If not waived through, if questioned about RO compliance, for a PR in breach of the RO the odds of being subject to inadmissibility proceedings abruptly increase, the risk increasing dramatically. That is, whether or not the returning PR is waived through without being closely examined about RO compliance, versus being questioned to the extent the examining border official determines there is or likely is a RO breach, has a huge impact.
For Illustration (a comparison just to give an idea how this works), Compare:
Example 1: A PR who has been coming and going, who has not been staying much in Canada but whose absences have been relatively short (a few months at a time), such that they are in breach of the RO by nearly two years, still has rather good odds of being waived through when returning after a relatively short absence and they present a valid PR card, even a card that will be expiring within the coming weeks . . . at least until they are closely questioned about RO compliance (once questioned closely, the odds of avoiding inadmissibility proceedings are not at all good for such a PR). This is the main explanation for anecdotal reports from PRs in breach who have managed to leave and re-enter Canada multiple times without a problem (it is not so much about luck as some here posit), despite being in breach of the RO by a lot (scenarios which tend to irritate those favouring more strict RO enforcement, such as @steaky). This is a relatively common scenario for some PRs who have managed to move their families into Canada (in time to avoid RO inadmissibility proceedings), but who still work outside Canada themselves. They continue to have good odds of not being subject to inadmissibility proceedings SO LONG AS they are presenting a valid PR card and there are no circumstances flagging them for a RO compliance examination (again: once flagged, their odds get worse fast).
Example 2: A PR who is just a few months in breach of the RO but, for whatever reason, is questioned about RO compliance to the extent the examining officer determines the PR is in breach. Once that questioning takes place, the risk of inadmissible proceedings increase by a lot.
The extent of the breach is still a big factor, so the sooner the move is made the better the PR's odds are even if examined closely enough for the border official to determine there is or likely is a RO breach. And this is where H&C factors come into the picture, noting that at this stage, for most PRs in breach, how it goes will mostly depend (not always, not entirely and definitely not for all PRs, but more commonly how it goes will depend) on comparing the extent of the breach with the reasons why the PR has not settled in Canada sooner.
Other Factors:
Again, @canuck78 has highlighted other factors which are worth considering, recognizing that to a large extent much of that is about the prospective difficulties most families would encounter in relocating from one country to another. In this regard, a huge factor is the nature and scope of your anxiety/depression and how YOU, you in particular, will handle the particular impositions and stresses in making such a move. As you are undoubtedly aware, there is a very wide range in how different people are affected and how they, their bodies, their mental and emotional conditions, respond. For some, a big move can actually be motivating, even inspirational, giving them the drive to do better; for others, the stress of the move can be a huge negative, too much to handle. I hope you have managed to navigate your difficulties in this regard sufficient to make a good assessment of how YOU in particular are likely to handle the move, including when it makes sense for you to make the move.
Note:
***So far anecdotal reporting and IAD decisions do not indicate a dramatic increase in RO compliance scrutiny of PRs presenting a valid PR card at a PoE. However, it is easy to forecast the prospect, if not the likelihood of this changing due to the development and implementation of Advanced Analytics and other AI components in conjunction with continuing enhancements in the government's capture, maintenance, and access to border crossing data. It is easy to forecast that at some juncture, sooner or not too much later (could be happening already), the technology will more frequently flag returning PRs who are in breach of the RO. This could lead to a much higher probability of PRs in breach, even if not by a lot, being subject to RO compliance examinations, which will substantially increase the risk of inadmissibility proceedings.
