450's the new 440's? [CRS OPINION / PREDICTION THREAD]

[Not_Your_Donkey_Kong]

Up till January, anything above 440 was considered a safe bet for Express Entry. And even those in upper 430's had a genuine chance of making it through.

However the past 4 months have been quite troublesome. And the recent draw i.e 470, has taken it to a new ceiling.

In view of such, do you guys think that 440's are no more the golden CRS? That 450's have become the new 440's? Or do you think that this recent trend is an abnormal one and the mean CRS would in near future get restored back to its well placed range i.e 444-448.

Also, what are your predictions for the year end CRS?

 

[rajapanesar]

Number of invitations has been low at 3350 as compared to 3900 of the last year and January 2019 too. Hence, the CRS cutoff was at a lower score.
To complete the target number of immigrants in the year 2019, the number of invitations has to go up beyond 4200 per draw. If this happens, the cutoff score will drop to 440s.

 

[Not_Your_Donkey_Kong]

Number of invitations has been low at 3350 as compared to 3900 of the last year and January 2019 too. Hence, the CRS cutoff was at a lower score.
To complete the target number of immigrants in the year 2019, the number of invitations has to go up beyond 4200 per draw. If this happens, the cutoff score will drop to 440s.

But then again, if they are aiming at the low target for the year, they are well on track with 3350 ITA's.

Could it be that they are balancing the excess ITA's issued in the last year by issuing less ITA's this year?

 

[rajapanesar]

They had a target set for the year 2019 which was more than the number invited in 2018. If they are set at 3350 for the year, they will fall behind that.