38th draw <GUESS>

[shahkunalm]

475.

 

[Richy888]

464... hopefully

 

[Prats6]

480 .. Bloody Hell...

 

[saumil29]

lets me draw another speculation supposing that the number of invitations to be given out this year are to remain same as last year i.e 31k approx ITA, the number of invitations sent out up to date are 15286 that is exactly half way ...so these 700 only invitations were rolled out to keep the balance and they will probably resume giving above 1200 invitations in the coming draws ...wild theories just to keep the hopes up

 

[Sluffy]

lets me draw another speculation supposing that the number of invitations to be given out this year are to remain same as last year i.e 31k approx ITA, the number of invitations sent out up to date are 15286 that is exactly half way ...so these 700 only invitations were rolled out to keep the balance and they will probably resume giving above 1200 invitations in the coming draws ...wild theories just to keep the hopes up

There's large decrease in quotas for 2016 comparing to 2015:
FSW (including CEC & FST) 59000 towards 74000 in 2015- it's 25% less
we can expect 31k*0.75 = 23250 ITAs
in case there are 11 draws left for this year - appr. 724 ITA per round.

 

[SNS76]

480 .. Bloody Hell...

If they continue with 700 ITA, then the score should be more than 800 in the next draw. BC (319) and Manitoba (551) issued PNP in the last week (http://www.canadavisa.com/news/latest.html).

 

[siriusnick]

There's large decrease in quotas for 2016 comparing to 2015:
FSW (including CEC & FST) 59000 towards 74000 in 2015- it's 25% less
we can expect 31k*0.75 = 23250 ITAs
in case there are 11 draws left for this year - appr. 724 ITA per round.

Where did you get that info? In any case, types of applicants are irrelevant to the amount of ITA, since it is giving out to everyone who met the cutoff subject to the total ITA quota.

 

[Lucky213]

If they continue with 700 ITA, then the score should be more than 800 in the next draw. BC (319) and Manitoba (551) issued PNP in the last week (http://www.canadavisa.com/news/latest.html).

Buddy these people got a Invitation to apply...as now they are now eligible to apply under PNP....no way they can enter federal express entry in the next draw

 

[siriusnick]

Canadian work experience gives a huge points increase, 40 for just a single year. 482 is likely a middle aged graduate with 2 years of Canadian experience, two or more degrees and CLB9+ IELTS score. The following are examples of some possible combinations of the last few draws:

Attribute Description Points
Age 35 77
Education Two or more 128
Language CLB9 124
Canadian experience 2 Years 53
Skill trans. Education Two or more + CLB9 50
Skill trans. Work Exp Two or more + Can. Exp 50
Total 482

Attribute Description Points
Age 36 72
Education Two or more 128
Language CLB9x2, CLB10x2 130
Canadian experience 2 Years 53
Skill trans. Education Two or more + CLB9 50
Skill trans. Work Exp Two or more + Can. Exp 50
Total 483

Attribute Description Points
Age 36 72
Education Masters 135
Language CLB9 124
Canadian experience 2 Years 53
Skill trans. Education Two or more + CLB9 50
Skill trans. Work Exp Two or more + Can. Exp 50
Total 484

Attribute Description Points
Age 34 83
Education Two or more 128
Language CLB9 124
Canadian experience 2 Years 53
Skill trans. Education Two or more + CLB9 50
Skill trans. Work Exp Two or more + Can. Exp 50
Total 488

Attribute Description Points
Age 31 99
Education Two or more 128
Language CLB10 + French CLB9 154
Canadian experience 2 Years 53
Skill trans. Education Two or more + CLB9 50
Skill trans. Work Exp Two or more + Can. Exp 50
Total 534

This is completely wrong, you cannot get 50 points for "Skill trans. Work Exp" with Canadian experience for single person. That is for Foreign Work Experience.

 

[djshshajtm]

485

Get those Language test as high as you can guys!
Good luck!

 

[johnjkjk]

This is completely wrong, you cannot get 50 points for "Skill trans. Work Exp" with Canadian experience for single person. That is for Foreign Work Experience.

As I have clarified already, I have assumed 3 years of foreign work experience, combined either with Canadian work experience or CLB9 to get 50 points in this category. The point remains that with foreign experience alone (and CLB10, Masters degree and age <30), the maximum score is 481. Canadian experience boosts this by up to 80 points which is the only way to realistically reach a higher score- French can get you a maximum of 24 and even a PhD only gets 15 more points compared to a Masters graduate.

 

[Heathcliff77]

God I hope for a significant drop in score

 

[Sluffy]

Where did you get that info? In any case, types of applicants are irrelevant to the amount of ITA, since it is giving out to everyone who met the cutoff subject to the total ITA quota.

These numbers are in direct proportion. There are 3 types of applicants under EE: PNP, FSW, CEC. The number of PNP admissions is the same, the number of FSW+ CEC decreased by roughly 25%
Plans for 2016
http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/department/media/notices/2016-03-08.asp
Plans for 2015
http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/department/media/notices/2014-11-06.asp

The total number of people to be admitted under EE is reduced, so it means the number of ITAs issued is reduced.

After presenting their plans in March the number of ITAs per draw significantly decreased from 1500 to 1000, and then from 1000 to 700+

 

[expressraja]

As per the links, the lowest of FSWP+FSTP+CEC is 54,000. Take half of it i.e. 27,000 as only half of admissions are from EE system. So far, in 2016, CIC issued only 15,286 ITAs. There are another 11,714 ITAs to be issued for 2016. There are 12 more draws left in 2016 on average 2 draws per month. So, can we expect the no. of ITAs to be around 900+ this time??

 

[Sluffy]

As per the links, the lowest of FSWP+FSTP+CEC is 54,000. Take half of it i.e. 27,000 as only half of admissions are from EE system. So far, in 2016, CIC issued only 15,286 ITAs. There are another 11,714 ITAs to be issued for 2016. There are 12 more draws left in 2016 on average 2 draws per month. So, can we expect the no. of ITAs to be around 900+ this time??

Close to my opinion. And I made a mistake in my previous post too.

So
The total goal numbers for 2015 including FSW+CEC+PNP was 47k+21k+46k =114k(low). and those counted for both EE and people applied before EE.
The total goal numbers for 2016 including FSW+CEC+PNP was 54K +46K=100K and this also for EE and before 2016.

An admission means that PR visa has been issued.

We can take as hypothesis two facts:
(1)statistics of admissions is 2 person per application, which means 2 persons per ITA - it can be found in Quarterly data release (don't have the link now, but there's a picture http://i.imgur.com/QqYdk5V.png - can see there are as many dependents as applicants)

2)Based on fact (1) the streams for EE and pre-EE admissions are divided 50/50.

The proofs of it - 31k of ITAs means 62K of people, and that is roughly 1/2 or a bit more of the target 2015 - 114k.
Moreover, the guy from CIC in the official video mentioned that streams are equal, a half for EE and a half for pre-EE - just watch the video again.

So what we have is that number of people to be admitted under EE in 2016 is 100k/2=50k.
And it means around 25000 ITAs this year. 15286 ITAs have been issued. If around 11 draws are left, the number of ITAs will be around 900 if we divide it equally. Or around 1000, if they continue with a couple of smaller draws like 750. OR more ITAs if they exceed the minimum number od go for maximum.

A weak side of my speculation is that we don't really now how big is the backlog, is it really around 25k of applications to be proceed or more.

A good side is that starting from September or even earlier the admissions will be counted towards 2016 and EE only, because pre-EE applications are supposed to be finalized in 2016.
Hope for the best%)