16 Draw Unite:prediction of draw, Number of Draws . crs 400 +

[singh100]

I have 451 CRS, I got a PT notification I have a few questions

1. Should I wait till the next ITA on 28 Aug or 3 Sep in order to decide to apply for Ontario PNP?

2. If I apply for a PNP and I get an ITA then can I just go ahead with the application or wait for PNP approval?

Please help me

Congrats .
You should start with oopnp and if you get ita meanwhile then think properly but as of now nobody know what will be the next cut-off. All d best

 

[taffarel]

The burden of proof of a 450 hard limit is on the people making the claim. There is nothing particularly pertinent about 450 that I can determine, why would they define such an arbitrary cutoff point? I think more that the pool of candidates and their overall immigration goals will determine where they make their cutoff in the coming months.

There is certainly no reason not to make the effort to increase your score if there is a way to do so.

100% correct .. 450 has became almost urban legend. Will drop bellow if the draws continue to happen regularly.

Trying to improve my score. All that matters for now, and it doesn't hurt.

 

[sskcec]

I have 451 CRS, I got a PT notification I have a few questions

1. Should I wait till the next ITA on 28 Aug or 3 Sep in order to decide to apply for Ontario PNP?

2. If I apply for a PNP and I get an ITA then can I just go ahead with the application or wait for PNP approval?

Please help me

451 is a decent score. You should probably wait for the next draw.

 

[kateg]

The burden of proof of a 450 hard limit is on the people making the claim. There is nothing particularly pertinent about 450 that I can determine, why would they define such an arbitrary cutoff point? I think more that the pool of candidates and their overall immigration goals will determine where they make their cutoff in the coming months.

There is certainly no reason not to make the effort to increase your score if there is a way to do so.

It doesn't have to be a hard limit, but it can be a significant limit nonetheless.

As it stands, each point they go below 451 will add more people than each point above it. Suppose they drew 454 tomorrow. Anyone with a score of 451 or higher was drawn on July 17. While there are some new additions, and some people declined, for the most part these candidates are filled. Anyone with a total of 453 or higher was drawn on March 27, and April 17, thinning the numbers of people who were drew on July 17.

If they draw 450 (for example), then they will be drawing from a pool of people who have not been so thinned. Someone with 450 points who applied Jan 1 has been waiting all this time, never caught in any draws. Looking at the distribution of Express Entry scores, there is a large cluster of applicants in that region, so each drop of a point will get even more people than it would in the 500+ range.

We're not likely to see a 20 point drop (below 450) any time soon. 451 to 449 (or even 451 to 450) is much more likely.

 

[bestofluck]

kateg is the only pessimist here! I am sure it will drow on 4th Sep itself the scores are going below 45 and they would be 441.

 

[kateg]

It's hard to explain why draw sizes differs so greatly while draw points hovers around a small range of 450-460, apart from draw size is rigged.

The draws are consistent with them having an approximate target for each, and scaling accordingly. If the score would go lower than they want, they wait for draws. If the draw would get too many people, they raise the score a bit. They are trying to avoid large swings.

 

[kateg]

No chance below 449 score this year

That's not true. The score dropping down to 445+ is certainly possible this year.

 

[bestofluck]

They never hold the draw, or else they would hold for 2 months also . why would they hold it for 7 days only. This is a technical clutch and not a holding of draws. The have their own formalities to complete before making a draw. And dropping below 445 will happen soon. kateg I am here only lets see if it goes in the next draw.

There is no Logic to draws. kateg Even the draw will be on friday is also not a logic or science they have mentioned anywhere. It just suits them to make a draw. The finish formalities the whole week and make a draw. There wil be draw beyond fridays also.
IF they never wanted to pick up people below 450 they would very well mention like Ontario which says 400 is must. They have never mentioned 400 is must. Its just a matter of time and not thier wish not go go below 450.

441 is my target on 4th Sep and 11th Sep it will go to 430.

It has to go down now, its high time. Or else people in 2016 qould not enter the pool. Giving false hopes dosent work for longer periods so atleast once they have to come down . they also know this and so it will happen.

 

[kateg]

There is no Logic to draws. kateg Even the draw will be on friday is also not a logic or science they have mentioned anywhere. It just suits them to make a draw. The finish formalities the whole week and make a draw. There wil be draw beyond fridays also.

We shall see.

441 is my target on 4th Sep and 11th Sep it will go to 430.

There does not appear to have been a draw today.

It has to go down now, its high time.

Why?

Or else people in 2016 qould not enter the pool.

What's to stop someone with a 455 from entering the pool in 2016?

Giving false hopes dosent work for longer periods so atleast once they have to come down. they also know this and so it will happen.

It doesn't work that way. There are lots and lots of 445s, 440s, 435s, and so on. Dropping the score suddenly, even once, would lead to a massive inrush of applications that would have to be processed all within a short timeframe.

Look at the mid-year statistics:

http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/resources/reports/ee-midyear-2015.asp

A score of 550 would get 357 people. Dropping it to 500 would have brought it to 395 (a minor increase). Dropping it to 450 raises it to 2,181, a major increase. In fact, that's a 452% increase, which brings it to more than the size of the draws they usually like to do. Dropping it to 400 would increase it to 10,951 people. In other words, they get 5x as many people at 450 than 500, and 25x as many at 400 than 500. Dropping it another 50 points to 350 would kick it to 25,548 people getting ITAs all at once. That's utterly ridiculous.

There's a limit to how low the score can go. If they hold a few back to back, we might see 445 soon. We're not likely to see 400 in the near future, if ever.

 

[profnevz]

16 draw out. Cutoff 459

 

[$unn¥123]

Is probation period would be count as my working experience?
My offer letter says 3 months period on probation from date of joining....
Seeking help

 

[mesumrizvi]

Is probation period would be count as my working experience?
My offer letter says 3 months period on probation from date of joining....
Seeking help

Yes it counts as work experience as long as you are being paid.

 

[$unn¥123]

Thnks rizvi

 

[kateg]

kateg is the only pessimist here! I am sure it will drow on 4th Sep itself the scores are going below 45 and they would be 441.

That's me. The pessimist, completely wrong.

 

[bestofluck]

We shall see.

There does not appear to have been a draw today.

Why?

What's to stop someone with a 455 from entering the pool in 2016?

It doesn't work that way. There are lots and lots of 445s, 440s, 435s, and so on. Dropping the score suddenly, even once, would lead to a massive inrush of applications that would have to be processed all within a short timeframe.

Look at the mid-year statistics:

http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/resources/reports/ee-midyear-2015.asp

A score of 550 would get 357 people. Dropping it to 500 would have brought it to 395 (a minor increase). Dropping it to 450 raises it to 2,181, a major increase. In fact, that's a 452% increase, which brings it to more than the size of the draws they usually like to do. Dropping it to 400 would increase it to 10,951 people. In other words, they get 5x as many people at 450 than 500, and 25x as many at 400 than 500. Dropping it another 50 points to 350 would kick it to 25,548 people getting ITAs all at once. That's utterly ridiculous.

There's a limit to how low the score can go. If they hold a few back to back, we might see 445 soon. We're not likely to see 400 in the near future, if ever.

I told you draw will happen beyond friday...I am right and now see my other predictions